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3 Shot Poker

Introduction

3 Shot Poker is a poker variation by Casino Gaming Development. It began a field trial at the Grand Sierra Resort in Reno on March 3, 2023. Briefly, the game follows the traditional raise or fold format, where the final cards are revealed after the decision is made.

Rules

  1. The games uses a single 52-card deck.
  2. Play starts with the player making a 1st Shot wager. The player may make an optional 5 Shot side bet at this time.
  3. The dealer shall deal the player two hole cards and three community cards, all face down.
  4. After examining his own cards, the player must either raise or fold. If the player folds, he forfeits his 1st Shot wager, but any 5 Shot wager will still have action. If the player raises, he must make both a 2nd Shot and 3rd Shot wagers, both equal to the 1st Shot wager.
  5. The dealer shall expose the three community cards.
  6. The 1st Shot, 2nd Shot and 3rd Shot wagers shall be based on the poker value of the following three-card poker hands and the pay table below:
    • 1st Shot — Two player hole cards and first community card.
    • 2nd Shot — Two player hole cards and second community card.
    • 3rd Shot — Two player hole cards and third community card.
  7. The 5 Shot wager shall be based on the poker value of all five cards, between the player's two hole cards and all three community cards and the pay table below.

The following are the available pay tables for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd Shot wagers. Wins are on a "to one" basis. The Grand Sierra is using Pay Table 2.

1st, 2nd and 3rd Shot Pay Table

Hand Pay Table 1 Pay Table 2 Pay Table 3
Mini royal 50 50 40
Straight flush 25 30 30
Three of a kind 10 20 10
Straight 5 4 5
Flush 2 2 2
Pair 1 1 1
All other Loss Loss Loss

The following are the available pay tables for the 5 Shot wager. The Grand Sierra is using Pay Table 1.

5 Shot Pay Table

Hand Pay Table 1 Pay Table 2 Pay Table 3
Royal flush 500 1000 1000
Straight flush 200 500 500
Four of a kind 50 50 200
Full house 40 40 100
Flush 30 30 50
Straight 20 20 10
Three of a kind 10 10 5
Two pair 2 2 2
Tens or better 1 1 1
All other Loss Loss Loss

Example

 

In the image above, I bet $100 on the 1st Shot and $25 on the 5 Shot.  I was dealt a K/A offsuit.  Although the odds favor folding that, I raised anyway, betting aother $100 on each of the 2nd Shot and 3rd Shot. 

The two community cards came up as Q,2,Q.  That formed a straight for the 1st Shot and 3rd Shot, paying 4 to 1 odds for both.  The 2nd Shot was a loser.  The 5 Shot bet was a high pair, which paid 1 to 1.  All things considered, I bet $325 and got back $1050, for a net win of $725. 

Strategy

The player should make the 2nd and 3rd Shot wagers with any of the following hole cards.

  • A pair
  • Any two suited
  • Outside straight draw

Under pay tables 1 and 3, when a straight pays 5 to 1, the player should also make the 2nd and 3rd Shot wagers with an inside straight draw (including A/2 and K/A).

3 Shot Analysis

The following three tables show my analysis of the 3 Shot wager under pay tables 1 to 3. The "weight" column reflects how many hands over which the event can happen. In other words, when the player makes the 2nd Shot and 3rd Shot bet, he can get any given hand in one of three possible hands. However, when he folds, he folds just one hand.

The following table shows my analysis of the base game under pay table 1. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 7.62%.

3 Shot Return Table — Pay Table 1

Event Pays Weight Combinations Probability Return
Mini royal 50 3 4 0.000181 0.027149
Straight flush 25 3 44 0.001991 0.149321
Three of a kind 10 3 52 0.002353 0.070588
Straight 5 3 720 0.032579 0.488688
Flush 2 3 1,096 0.049593 0.297557
Pair 1 3 2,472 0.111855 0.335566
Loser -1 3 7,112 0.321810 -0.965430
Fold -1 1 10,600 0.479638 -0.479638
Total     22,100 1.000000 -0.076199

The following table shows my analysis of the base game under pay table 2. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.33%.

3 Shot Return Table — Pay Table 2

Event Pays Weight Combinations Probability Return
Mini royal 50 3 4 0.000181 0.027149
Straight flush 30 3 44 0.001991 0.179186
Three of a kind 20 3 52 0.002353 0.141176
Straight 4 3 496 0.022443 0.269321
Flush 2 3 1,096 0.049593 0.297557
Pair 1 3 2,136 0.096652 0.289955
Loser -1 3 4,872 0.220452 -0.661357
Fold -1 1 13,400 0.606335 -0.606335
Total     22,100 1.000000 -0.063348

The following table shows my analysis of the base game under pay table 3. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 5.18%.

3 Shot Return Table — Pay Table 3

Event Pays Weight Combinations Probability Return
Mini royal 40 3 4 0.000181 0.021719
Straight flush 30 3 44 0.001991 0.179186
Three of a kind 10 3 52 0.002353 0.070588
Straight 5 3 720 0.032579 0.488688
Flush 2 3 1,096 0.049593 0.297557
Pair 1 3 2,472 0.111855 0.335566
Loser -1 3 7,112 0.321810 -0.965430
Fold -1 1 10,600 0.479638 -0.479638
Total     22,100 1.000000 -0.051765

The following table summarizes the house edge and element of risk under all three pay tables. As a reminder, the house edge is defined as the ratio of the expected player loss to the original wager. The element of risk is defined as the ratio of the expected player loss to the average total amount bet.

3 Shot Return Table — Pay Table 3

Pay
Table
House
Edge
Average
Wager
Element
of Risk
1 7.62% 2.040724 3.73%
2 6.33% 1.787330 3.54%
3 5.18% 2.040724 2.54%

5 Shot Analysis

The following table shows my analysis of Pay Table 1 of the 5 Shot side bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 8.17%.

5 Shot Return Table — Pay Table 1

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Royal flush 500 4 0.000002 0.000770
Straight flush 200 36 0.000014 0.002770
Four of a kind 50 624 0.000240 0.012005
Full house 40 3,744 0.001441 0.057623
Flush 30 5,108 0.001965 0.058962
Straight 20 10,200 0.003925 0.078493
Three of a kind 10 54,912 0.021128 0.211285
Two pair 2 123,552 0.047539 0.095078
Tens or better 1 422,400 0.162527 0.162527
Loser -1 1,978,380 0.761220 -0.761220
Total   2,598,960 1.000000 -0.081708

The following table shows my analysis of Pay Table 2 of the 5 Shot side bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 7.68%.

5 Shot Return Table — Pay Table 2

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Royal flush 1000 4 0.000002 0.001539
Straight flush 500 36 0.000014 0.006926
Four of a kind 50 624 0.000240 0.012005
Full house 40 3,744 0.001441 0.057623
Flush 30 5,108 0.001965 0.058962
Straight 20 10,200 0.003925 0.078493
Three of a kind 10 54,912 0.021128 0.211285
Two pair 2 123,552 0.047539 0.095078
Tens or better 1 422,400 0.162527 0.162527
Loser -1 1,978,380 0.761220 -0.761220
Total   2,598,960 1.000000 -0.076783

The following table shows my analysis of Pay Table 3 of the 5 Shot side bet. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 5.99%.

5 Shot Return Table — Pay Table 3

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Royal flush 1000 4 0.000002 0.001539
Straight flush 500 36 0.000014 0.006926
Four of a kind 200 624 0.000240 0.048019
Full house 100 3,744 0.001441 0.144058
Flush 50 5,108 0.001965 0.098270
Straight 10 10,200 0.003925 0.039246
Three of a kind 5 54,912 0.021128 0.105642
Two pair 2 123,552 0.047539 0.095078
Tens or better 1 422,400 0.162527 0.162527
Loser -1 1,978,380 0.761220 -0.761220
Total   2,598,960 1.000000 -0.059915

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