Three Point Dolly

Introduction

The Three Point Dolly is a betting system based on craps. It is the flip side of the the Three Point Molly, making bets that win on a seven, as opposed to loss on a seven.

Using the Three Point Dolly will give the player a house advantage of 0.27%, which is as good as it gets in most casinos. It doesn't achieve this via the betting system, but because the player is making very good bets to begin with.

While I've seen players betting this way at the table, I am not aware of any term for this betting system. So, I created the name Three Point Dolly, the evil twin of the Three Point Molly.

Rules

The following rules understand the player knows the rules of craps. If you don't, please at least review the rules of the don't pass, don't come, and laying the in craps before going further.

Here is the short version of how to play the Three Point Dolly. Make a don't pass or don't come bet every roll, until you have three numbers covered. Back up all don't pass and don't come bets by laying full odds, preferably the maximum multiple allowed.

Next, here is the longer version of how to play the Three Point Dolly.

The player will have to decide how much money a betting unit is. For example $10. It will have to at least be the minimum don't pass line bet. Every don't pass or don't come bet will be for one unit.

1. If it is a come out roll and the player has less than three numbers covered, then make a don't pass bet.
2. If it is not a come out roll and the player has less than three numbers covered, then make a don't come bet.
3. If three numbers are already covered, then don't make any new bets.
4. If a pass or come bet was made the previous roll and a point number (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10) was rolled, then back it up by laying the odds, preferably the maximum allowed.
5. Keep repeating the four steps above until a seven-out, which marks the end of the session.

Analysis

To analyze the Three Point Dolly, I ran through over 41 billion sessions playing it via computer simulation. I assumed the table allows 3-4-5x odds, meaning the player always lays 6x the don't pass or don't come bet. Here are some statistics about what to expect per session, defined as playing until the shooter sevens-out.

• Average units bet: 30.313926
• Averages units won: -0.083150
• Ratio money won to money bet = -0.002743
• Average dice rolls = 8.525547
• Probability session win = 0.679841
• Average units won, given a win = 7.393417
• Probability session loss = 0.299207
• Average units lost, given a loss = 17.076796
• Probability session push = 0.020952

The spoiler box below shows the raw results of the count of each net win in the simulation.

 

The following graph shows the probability of the most common outcomes, between a loss of 50 and a win of 25 units.

Comparison to Three Point Molly

The following table compares various statistics between the Three Point Molly and Three Point Dolly.

Video

Please enjoy my video on the Three Point Dolly.

Conclusion

What is important in gambling is the game played, bet made, and sometimes your skill in making decisions. What is not important is the reason for making a bet. For that reason, betting systems are not mathematical voodoo that put the odds in the player's favor. No, not only don't betting systems lower the house edge, they don't even dent it.

The great thing about the Three Point Dolly is not the method, but that it's played on very low house edge bets. The don't pass and come bets carry a 1.36% house edge, while all the odds bets carry a 0.00% house edge. Taking a blended average, the overall house edge is 0.27%. In most casinos, those are the best odds you are going to get.

External Links

Discussion about the Three Point Dolly in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.

Written by: Michael Shackleford