Gambling Guide
Ask the Wizard #86
"Anonymous" .
To answer your first question, there are 2598960 ways to choose 5 cards out of 52 for the initial hand. On the draw there are 1, 47, 1081, 16215, 178365, or 1533939 ways to draw the replacement cards, depending on how many card the player holds. The least common denominator for these numbers is 7669695. The actual combinations are weighted to get a total of 7669695. So the total number of combinations is 2,596,960*7,669,695=19,933,230,517,200. To answer your second question video poker machines simply pick numbers at random from 1 to 52 and assign them to a card. The random number generators themselves are very complicated but the object is simple.
"Anonymous" .
Thanks for the compliment. You are right that you shouldn’t surrender if they take the match play away. There are some other strategy changes but I never worked out a list. Generally the casinos don’t allow doubling the match play chip, in which case you should be less inclined to double. ’Basic Blackjack’ by Stanford Wong indicates when to double if doubling the match play is allowed. My advice is to use the match play on the Player bet in baccarat.
"Anonymous" .
First, there are 10*9/2=45 ways you can choose 2 players out of 10. The probability of two specific players getting four aces is 1/combin(52,4)=1/270725. So the probability of any two players getting a pair of aces is 45/270725=0.0001662.
"Anonymous" .
Your expected loss of this play is 0.005*20*$1000=$100. The betting system will not affect the expected loss, but will affect the volatility.
"Anonymous" .
Yes, the casinos do calculate the value of a player’s play and then comp back a certain percentage, roughly about 33% to 40%. According to my theoretical house edge table, the casinos assume a house edge of 0.75% in blackjack. So in your example the value of this play would be 0.0075×$10×60×3=$13.50. If the casino comps back 1/3 of the play then you could expect to get a comp worth $4.50. However, most places don’t like to fuss with such small comps.
"Anonymous" .
You are right, that article is incorrect. The probability of a 500-year flood in a period of x years is 1-e-x/500. So the probability of at least one 500-year flood in 50 years is 9.52% and in 100 years is 18.13%.
