Gambling Guide
Ask the Wizard #75
Michael from Texas
The following table shows the probability of attaining every percentage from 50% to 60%, in increments of 1%, by each number of seasons from 1 to 5. This is based on a 259 game season. I also assume that the overall percentage is rounded down. For example if a handicapper picked 132 out of 259 games, for a percentage of 50.97%, he would only get credit for picking 50%, since he didn’t quite attain 51%. It would not surprise me if these boasting handicappers are rounding in their own favor.
Probability of Handicapping Percentages in the NFL
| Ratio | 1 Seasons | 2 Seasons | 3 Seasons | 4 Seasons | 5 Seasons |
| 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.517523 | 0.5 | 0.512393 | 0.5 |
| 0.51 | 0.354641 | 0.314437 | 0.282985 | 0.257059 | 0.234993 |
| 0.52 | 0.267178 | 0.178085 | 0.125486 | 0.101366 | 0.074229 |
| 0.53 | 0.160065 | 0.086589 | 0.049447 | 0.025155 | 0.015098 |
| 0.54 | 0.106982 | 0.035817 | 0.013066 | 0.004959 | 0.001926 |
| 0.55 | 0.053095 | 0.012519 | 0.002569 | 0.000687 | 0.000152 |
| 0.56 | 0.023385 | 0.00282 | 0.000373 | 0.000051 | 0.000007 |
| 0.57 | 0.012645 | 0.00067 | 0.000053 | 0.000003 | 0 |
| 0.58 | 0.00453 | 0.000133 | 0.000004 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.59 | 0.00213 | 0.000022 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.6 | 0.000617 | 0.000003 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jack from Mesa, USA
I’m quite sure none of them report anything.
Karen from Antioch, USA
I doubt certain numbers are more likely than others. My advice is to pick anything, it doesn’t make any difference.
Q1. For 17 v A (your reference - Rh). If the player doesn’t surrender (or double down surrender), does he in fact hit? I ask this question because I’m a little unsure - Scoblete’s book says to stand 17 v A, as does Norm Wattenberger’s Spanish 21 strategy table in CVBJ3.
Q2. Your references to the 6-7-8 bonuses. Do all the references apply equally to the 7-7-7 bonuses? e.g. Does * mean "Hit if any 6-7-8 [OR 7-7-7] bonus possible"?
Q3. p20 of Scoblete’s Spanish 21 book says to hit 9 v 6 if player has a 3 card 9. Should I ignore this advice, along with the "don’t double down rescue" advice given in his book?
Sorry to bother you with these questions but I’ve got a Spanish 21 tournament coming up, and need all the help I can get. Many thanks.
Alan from Sydney, Australia
- Yes, you should hit. I believe all those who disagree to be in error.
- No, the 7-7-7 bonus is only possible with two initial sevens. The proper strategy is indicated in that row.
- Yes, you should ignore this advice.
Jerry from Del Ray Beach, USA
Unless bankroll preservation is very important to you then Kelly betting won’t help. I would just flat bet. Nice strategy to milk the comp system.
Steven from Margate, USA
They can deal more hands per hour in a 7-spot game. However the advantage per hand is the same. Personally I hate these 7-spot tables.
