Ask the Wizard #75
Michael from Texas
The following table shows the probability of attaining every percentage from 50% to 60%, in increments of 1%, by each number of seasons from 1 to 5. This is based on a 259 game season. I also assume that the overall percentage is rounded down. For example if a handicapper picked 132 out of 259 games, for a percentage of 50.97%, he would only get credit for picking 50%, since he didn’t quite attain 51%. It would not surprise me if these boasting handicappers are rounding in their own favor.
Probability of Handicapping Percentages in the NFL
|Ratio||1 Seasons||2 Seasons||3 Seasons||4 Seasons||5 Seasons|
Jack from Mesa, USA
I’m quite sure none of them report anything.
Karen from Antioch, USA
I doubt certain numbers are more likely than others. My advice is to pick anything, it doesn’t make any difference.
Q1. For 17 v A (your reference - Rh). If the player doesn’t surrender (or double down surrender), does he in fact hit? I ask this question because I’m a little unsure - Scoblete’s book says to stand 17 v A, as does Norm Wattenberger’s Spanish 21 strategy table in CVBJ3.
Q2. Your references to the 6-7-8 bonuses. Do all the references apply equally to the 7-7-7 bonuses? e.g. Does * mean "Hit if any 6-7-8 [OR 7-7-7] bonus possible"?
Q3. p20 of Scoblete’s Spanish 21 book says to hit 9 v 6 if player has a 3 card 9. Should I ignore this advice, along with the "don’t double down rescue" advice given in his book?
Sorry to bother you with these questions but I’ve got a Spanish 21 tournament coming up, and need all the help I can get. Many thanks.
Alan from Sydney, Australia
- Yes, you should hit. I believe all those who disagree to be in error.
- No, the 7-7-7 bonus is only possible with two initial sevens. The proper strategy is indicated in that row.
- Yes, you should ignore this advice.
Jerry from Del Ray Beach, USA
Unless bankroll preservation is very important to you then Kelly betting won’t help. I would just flat bet. Nice strategy to milk the comp system.
Steven from Margate, USA
They can deal more hands per hour in a 7-spot game. However the advantage per hand is the same. Personally I hate these 7-spot tables.