Ask the Wizard #44

Thanks for your kind words. I agree that calculating the numbers for seven-card stud is hard. That is why I do it my computer. My program goes through all possible combinations and scores each one. The number of wild straights in pai gow poker is 11*(4⁴-4)+10*3*(4⁴-4)=10332. Combined with the 10200 natural straights the total is 20532.

The Banker is baccarat is not a positive expectation bet. You're confusing the probability of winning the bet with having a positive expectation. Even without a betting system, you will probably win any banker bet but you will win less than what you bet, because of the 5% commission. This makes the banker bet a negative expectation bet.

Thanks for your kind words. Actually, I have been asked about teaching a coarse on the mathematics of gambling at UNLV. pai gow poker is not my game, so I don't follow the details very closely. I do know, as you stated, that some rotate and some zig-zag the banker between the players and dealer. However I don't keep track of who does it which way, sorry. I've also seen that progressive side bet at lots of casinos around town. Again I don't keep track of who specifically has it. However that is a great idea of banking against it, I have never thought of that. Sorry I wasn't of much help.

That is probably the most frequently asked question I get which I don't have an answer to. An exhaustive Klondike Solitaire has never been done. Maybe, when computers are a million times faster, somebody will eventually do it. However, it is rumored that Vegas casinos used to offer the game at least back in the fifties. I've asked a number of Vegas old-timers to verify that, but none have been able to, so far.

You're welcome! Casinos generally try to keep the maximum bet about 200 to 500 times the minimum bet. Why? If a casino is comfortable with a $10,000 bet on a $100 table, why not take it on a $5 table? The answer seems to be that casinos like to corral their big bettors into certain areas. Such high-limit areas tend to have the best staff and surveillance. Limiting the ratio of maximum to minimum bet is also a defense against cheating and advantage play.

The advantage of card counting depends on how good and aggressive the card counter is. Other than my introduction to card counting, I leave that topic to other gambling writers.

I don't know the hold for any game. For the benefit of other readers, the hold percentage is the ratio of casino profit to chips purchased at the table. Since the same chips will circulate back and forth between the players and dealer for an unknown period of time, the mathematician has no way of calculating the hold or hold percentage.

You should never remove a don't pass bet after a point is made! Once a point is made of 6 or 8 the don't pass has equity of 9.09% of the bet amount, which you would be throwing away by taking the bet down. The equity of a don't pass bet on a point of 5 or 9 is 20%, and on a 4 or 10 is 33.33%.

You can expect a repeat once every 37 pairs of numbers. So, with 36 numbers we have 35 pairs of numbers. So, the expected number of repeats is 35/37 = 0.9459.

Thanks for the compliment. If I had been at this game I would have played it hard. Assuming six-decks and otherwise Vegas rules, the player edge would have been 1.94%. The 2 to 1 on blackjack adds 2.37% to the player's expected return in a six-deck game.

For variable-state slots, you have to know what the positive point is for that model of machine. For example, on the Piggy Bankin' slot machine, I think it becomes positive when there are about 40 credits in the bank. At that point the player is supposed to play one coin at a time until the bank is hit. The book Robbing the One-Armed Bandits by Charles Lund (1999) covers specific positive points for various machines, however many of the machines covered in that book are now hard to find.

As for how to determine when a progressive jackpot is unusually high, you'll either have to observe it over a long period of time or find someone who has done the same. For example, SlotCharts.com keeps data on progressive slots at online casinos. But even when a progressive slot is unusually high, it's impossible to know at what point it becomes high enough to be a positive-expectation game without knowing how the probabilities on the machine are programmed. In my section Deconstructing Megabucks I attempt to figure out when the jackpot is large enough to have a player advantage.

Update: Since this question was published, SlotCharts.com is blocked to U.S. traffic.

Thanks. This is a good question and I wish I had a firm answer. The exact answer depends on the theoretical return of both machines, and nobody ever reveals this information. Yes, you do get a better return in general on dollar machines than quarters, but you are giving up the max-coin bonus. I think the house edge will do down about 2% making the jump from quarters to dollars. However, without reel weightings, I can't tell you the cost of not playing max coins. My general advice is to find a slot machine without a max-coin incentive and then bet one coin at a time.

First, you need to get a player card. Then you have to present it to the pit boss when you play a table game. As a rule of thumb, to get a free room you probably need to bet at least $50-$100 a hand at least four hours a day for every day you stay there. The better the place the more difficult they will be to impress.

At the time you asked this they still paid 3-2 on blackjacks. Before considering the rule about doubling on 3 or 4 cards, and the six-card Charlie, the my blackjack house edge calculator says the house edge is 0.50%. My list of rule variations says that doubling on 3 or 4 cards is worth 0.23%, and the six-card Charlie rule is worth 0.16%. So, the overall house edge is 0.50% - 0.23% - 0.16% = 0.11%.

However, since you wrote they changed their rules to pay 2 to 1 on suited blackjacks and 1 to 1 on all other blackjacks. This increases the house edge by 1.13%, to 1.24%. They still have the sign stating it is the "World's most liberal blackjack," which is patently untrue, if you interpret the word "liberal" to mean lowest house edge.