Ask the Wizard #23
What are the odds (and frequency) in 100,000 rolls of the dice (craps/dont pass line) of losing a DP bet 2x’s.3x’s 4x’s 5x’s 6x’s 7x’s 8x’s or 9x’s in a row.
Derick from Minneapolis, USA
My craps appendix shows how to work out the odds for any one bet. There you will see the probability of losing the don’t pass bet is 2928/5940. The probability of losing n bets in a row is (2928/5940)n. The frequency in 100,000 of losing exactly n can be closely approximated as 100,000 * (2928/5940)n+2.
I just have a couple more questions for you and then I wont bug you again for a really long time. Promise. : 0 ). What the jackpot would have to be on a 8/5 20 nickel game for it to be a 100% game, keeping in mind that it takes 20 nickels to be eligible for the jackpot? What about the same machine on a 7/5 game? And finally, what would it have to be on an 8/5 quarter machine that requires eight coins to be eligible for the jackpot. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank you for your sage advice. It has made gambling a lot more enjoyable!
You're welcome! In an 8/5 game, the jackpot would have to reach 37,704 coins to reach 100%, assuming you have to play 20 coins to win it. Assuming only 8 coins, the meter would have to reach 15,082 coins. On a 7/5 machine and 20 coins required the meter would have to reach, 46,956 coins. These figures assume you are playing the proper strategy for these pay tables with a per coin payoff for a royal flush of 800. As the jackpot grows some strategy adjustments are called for to more aggressively try for the royal. These adjustments were not calculated in this answer. It doesn't make any difference what the coinage is.
I have just started gambling online and I am having a difficult time believing that these online casinos are really fair. Although I have tried just three different casinos, they seem to be very hard to beat. I am a fairly consistent winner in Vegas at Blackjack, but these online guys are tough. So the question is -- are the online blackjack games really fair. Thanks and by the way, I really enjoy your site. I have learned a great deal and am looking forward to applying some of your knowledge during my next trip to Vegas. Thanks again!
Larry R. from Nucla, USA
Thanks for your kind words. I think that the vast majority on online casinos are fair. However I won't claim that all of them are. Check out my casino blacklist for casinos I had problems with. Assuming you aren't playing just the bad ones, I would suggest your losing is just the result of bad luck.
What is a put bet in craps?
A put bet is like a come bet made after a point has already been established. I don't recommend put bets because the value from come bets comes from the first roll, before any point is established. On a the first roll of a come bet the probability of winning is 22.22%, and the probability of losing is 11.11%.
However, if you must cover other points quickly, the odds are generally equal or better on place bets and buy bets on the 4 and 10 (assuming commission paid only on a win). Only if you can get 10x odds, and take them, do put bets become a better value than the better of place and buy bets. Since so few places offer 10x or better odds, it is safe to say to just avoid put bets completely.