Best Odds for 2024 US Presidential Election Winner on the Tue Nov 5th 7am - US Presidential Elections Winner
As I write this, on August 7, 2024, the market for the winner of the 2024 presidential election is hot and changing by the day.
To help you with those bets, here were the percentage of votes each major candidate won in the six closest states, in order of closeness.
Expected Value of Push 22 Bet
| State | Biden | Trump | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 0.4947 | 0.4924 | 0.0023 | |
| Arizona | 0.4936 | 0.4906 | 0.0030 | |
| Wisconsin | 0.4945 | 0.4882 | 0.0063 | |
| Pennsylvania | 0.5001 | 0.4884 | 0.0117 | |
| Nevada | 0.5006 | 0.4767 | 0.0239 | |
| Michigan | 0.5062 | 0.4784 | 0.0278 |
The chart, from Predict It, above shows how the probabilities of both parties winning have changed between May 9 and Aug 5, 2024. The Democratic party is in blue and the Republican party is in red. The labels on the right side correspond to the probability of winning.
As you can see, the Democratic party started as a small favorite to gradually turn into a small underdog. However, everything suddenly changed on June 27, the date of the Biden vs. Trump debate. It's no big secret that Biden did terrible. The bars in the chart above show the betting volume. There was obviously a huge demand for bets on the Republican party, causing a quick drop in the Democratic probability of winning from 48% to 42%. I get these probabilities from an interactive version of the chart and subtracting 1%, for the vigorish.
The Democratic party kept sliding to a low of 35% and then climbed back up to 42%. Then everything changed again when Biden dropped out on July 21. There was an enormous spike in betting volume, which has gradually increased the probability of winning of the Democratic side from 42% at the time of the announcement to 56% right now (Aug 7, 2024).
In my personal opinion, which has been wrong before, I think Harris/Democratic party is a good bet. In fact, yesterday I put my money where my mouth is, betting a total of $1325 between those two bets. You can either thank or curse me later for my advice.
My first bet yesterday was against a trusted friend who gave me a line of -105 on Harris. I took it for his maximum of $1,000. Then I brushed off an old Predict It account I opened a long time ago but never funded. It was surprisingly easy to make a deposit and bet. They had me use my phone to take pictures of my driver's license and myself to verify my identity, which were approved within seconds. Then it was simple to make a deposit of $500 by credit card. I then I purchased 500 shares of the Democratic party for $0.55 cents a share. If that side wins, that contact will pay $500. This assumes a 55% chance of winning, which is equivalent to laying -122 odds in the American line format.
The process at Predict It from resetting my password, verifying my identity, making a deposit and making a bet took about five minutes and was very efficient. It should be noted that there is a 5% transaction fee on withdrawals.
Predict It also offers bets on the winner in both Wisconsin and Georgia.
In closing, I would like to say that I made a profit on every election since Bill Clinton Vs. Dole in 1996 except one. That one exception was Trump vs. Hilary Clinton in 1996, when I lost BIG TIME. I was as shocked as everyone by the outcome and had a small five-figure loss to remember it by.
Event Date: Tue Nov 5th 7:00am
| Average/Time |
|
|
|---|---|---|
|
Donald Trump
|
-110 | -110 |
|
Kamala Harris
|
-110 | -110 |
|
Joe Biden
|
750 | 700 |
|
Michelle Obama
|
10000 | 25000 |
|
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
|
12500 | 10000 |
|
Nikki Haley
|
10000 | 20000 |
|
J. D. Vance
|
15000 | 10000 |
|
Hillary Clinton
|
15000 | 50000 |
|
Josh Shapiro
|
15000 | 50000 |
|
Andy Beshear
|
15000 | 50000 |
|
Tim Walz
|
15000 | 20000 |
|
Gavin Newsom
|
25000 | 50000 |
|
Gretchen Whitmer
|
25000 | 50000 |
|
George Clooney
|
25000 | |
|
Pete Buttigieg
|
25000 | 50000 |
|
Mark Kelly
|
25000 | 50000 |
|
J. B. Pritzker
|
30000 | 50000 |
|
Dean Phillips
|
50000 | |
|
Tucker Carlson
|
50000 | |
|
Elizabeth Warren
|
50000 | |
|
Amy Klobuchar
|
50000 | |
|
Stacey Abrams
|
50000 | |
|
Ron DeSantis
|
50000 | |
|
Tulsi Gabbard
|
50000 | |
|
Doug Burgum
|
50000 | |
|
Vivek Ramaswamy
|
50000 | |
|
Chris Christie
|
50000 | |
|
Joe Kennedy
|
50000 | |
|
Mark Cuban
|
50000 | |
|
Tim Scott
|
50000 | |
|
John Kasich
|
50000 | |
|
Kirsten Gillibrand
|
50000 | |
|
Marianne Williamson
|
50000 | |
|
Mike Pence
|
50000 | |
|
Candace Owens
|
50000 | |
|
Eric Garcetti
|
50000 | |
|
Beto O'Rourke
|
50000 | |
|
Bernie Sanders
|
50000 | |
|
Greg Abbott
|
50000 | |
|
Kristi Noem
|
50000 | |
|
Michael Bloomberg
|
50000 | |
|
Mike Pompeo
|
50000 | |
|
Mitt Romney
|
50000 | |
|
Tammy Duckworth
|
50000 | |
|
Ted Cruz
|
50000 | |
|
Tom Cotton
|
50000 | |
|
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
|
50000 | |
|
Wes Moore
|
50000 | 50000 |
|
Cory Booker
|
50000 | |
|
Andrew Yang
|
50000 | |
|
Ben Sasse
|
50000 | |
|
Dan Crenshaw
|
50000 | |
|
Jared Kushner
|
50000 | |
|
Jeb Bush
|
50000 | |
|
Josh Hawley
|
50000 | |
|
Lindsey Graham
|
50000 | |
|
Liz Cheney
|
50000 | |
|
Marco Rubio
|
50000 | |
|
Marjorie Taylor Greene
|
50000 | |
|
Matt Gaetz
|
50000 | |
|
Paul Ryan
|
50000 | |
|
Rand Paul
|
50000 | |
|
Susan Collins
|
50000 | |
|
Donald Trump Jr.
|
50000 | |
|
Joe Manchin
|
50000 | |
|
Jared Polis
|
50000 | |
|
Glenn Youngkin
|
50000 | |
|
Raphael Warnock
|
50000 | |
|
Sheryl Sandberg
|
50000 | |
|
Brian Kemp
|
50000 | |
|
Bobby Jindal
|
50000 | |
|
Charlie Baker
|
50000 | |
|
Devin Nunes
|
50000 | |
|
Francis Suarez
|
50000 | |
|
Jon Stewart
|
50000 | |
|
Larry Hogan
|
50000 | |
|
Perry Johnson
|
50000 | |
|
Rick Scott
|
50000 | |
|
Ryan Binkley
|
50000 | |
|
John Fetterman
|
50000 | |
|
Asa Hutchinson
|
50000 | |
|
Katie Porter
|
50000 | |
|
Lara Trump
|
50000 | |
|
Will Hurd
|
50000 | |
|
Linda Livingstone
|
50000 | |
|
Jamaal Bowman
|
50000 |