Ask the Wizard #79
Ruben from Copenhagen, Denmark
If you can’t double or split that adds 1.9% to whatever the house edge is otherwise. This just goes to show that you should always have double or split money available if you need it.
Gene & Rosie from Bayside, WI
Your overall expected return is the same regardless of how many games you play. Of course it is more likely to hit a number the more machines you play, but if they all miss you lose more money.
That column seemed to put the mathematics to that "feeling" a player can get. In that columns’ example of a player losing 8 consecutive hands of blackjack the odds were (.5251^8 or about 1 in 173). My question though is what does that really mean? Is it that when I sit down at the table, 1 out of my next 173 playing sessions I can expect to have an 8 hand losing streak? Or does it mean that on any given loss it is a 1 in 173 chance that it was the first of 8 losses coming my way?
I know, I know, its some sort of divine intervention betting system I am talking about and no betting system affects the house edge. I’m still curious though. Besides every once in awhile throwing down a bigger bet just adds to the excitement and for some reason it seems logical that if you have lost a string of hands you are "due" for a win.
Steve from Phoenix, AZ
I have no problem with increasing your bet when you get a lucky feeling. What is important is that you play your cards right. Unless you are counting cards you have the free will to bet as much as you want. As I always say all betting systems are equally worthless so flying by the seat of your pants is just as good as flat betting over the long term. When I said the probability of losing 8 hands in a row is 1 in 173 I meant that starting with the next hand the probability of losing 8 in a row is 1 in 173. The chances of 8 losses in a row over a session are greater the longer the session. I hope this answers your question.
Sure. There are lots of ways. Putting in fake coins just to name a simple one. Be warned that in Nevada cheating in a casino carries the same kind of penalty as bank robbery, or so I hear. Let the record show that I disapprove of all forms of cheating.
Thefamousv from Manila
Thanks for the nice words. I already address commission free baccarat in my baccarat section. Yes, the winning 6 is a sucker bet. The probability of the banker having a winning 6 is 5.39% and the probability of the player having a winning 6 is 6.26%. The house edge on the banker is 30.00% and on the player is 18.68%.
The first one is the 3q/A-strategy found in R.D Ellison’s book "Gamble to win: Roulette", which has a verified win rate of 7.94% (7500 spins). The system was tested and developed in conjunction with" Spin roultte Gold" by Frank Scoblete and "Roulette system tester" by Eric St. Germain.
The second one is Don Young’s roulette system which is verified to beat the Roulette System Tester from Zumma Publishing(15000 spins).
Now, I must say I’m still a bit sceptical about spending money on these systems, but since they've proved themselves over the long haul, I can't really see no reason why I shouldn’t. I mean, beating these testbooks have to mean something...
What’s your opinion on these systems? And do you think I should try them out??
Thanks alot! Have nice day. Best wishes
7500 spins? Is that it? Anyone can show a profit of 7.94% of total money bet over 7500 spins if they bet aggressively. Same is true about 15000 spins. Most systems are designed to have a lot of small wins and small number of large losses. A system requiring a huge bankroll can easily go 15000 spins and show a profit. Eventually the losses will come in and it won't pass the test of time. The big losses might also come at the beginning. The true way to put a system to the test is to play it over billions of trials. My opinion about these systems is the same as all systems, they are worthless. I have no problem with you trying them out but I do have a problem with anyone putting one dime in the pockets of those selling them.
Note: See the follow up to this question in the next column.
The probability of a single banker win is 0.50682483 and single player win is 0.49317517, ignoring ties. So the probability that the next 8 hands will be banker win, skipping ties, is 0.506824838 = 0.004353746 . The probability of the same thing on the player is 0.493175178 = 0.003499529.
No problem. There are combin(47,5)=1533939 ways to arrange 5 cards out of the 47 left in the deck. 43 of those will result in four deuces (the 5th card has 47-4=43 possibilities). So the probability of getting four deuces on the draw is 43/1533939 = 1/35673 = 0.000028032. The probability of drawing a fourth deuce after keeping 3 is (47-1)/combin(47,2) = 46/1081 = 0.0426. In my video poker appendix 5 you can see how the probability distribution in deuces wild of the number of cards drawn to any given hand. For example 2.62% of all four deuces will be obtained by getting all four on the draw. The probability of this happening on any given hand is 0.000005. For more information on the combin function visit my section on probabilities in poker.