Ask the Wizard #50

I wasn’t planning on it. There are so many betting patterns in craps that one analysis would only fit a small percentage of craps players.

Good question. I’ve been toying with doing a section on guts for years. I have a computer program half-way finished. One problem is there are so many ways to play guts that one analysis would only fit a small percentage of games. The dummy hand also makes things much more complicated. On a related note let me suggest a good guts variation. If nobody stays in then you go again, everyone with the exact same cards. Knowing everyone else has a lousy hand will induce players with a marginal hand to stay in. The first time my friends and I adopted this rule everybody went in on the second round.

No, I haven’t seen it at any online casinos. The only place I have seen it is Atlantic City. The game seems to be going the way of the dodo bird.

There are combin(52,5)=2598960 possible combinations of the first five cards. You don’t have to analyze all of them. Personally I break them down into 191659 different kinds and weight each one with the number of similar hands. For example the odds are the same with four aces and a king singleton regardless of the suit of the king. You don’t have to analyze four hands for each possible suit of the king, just one of them and multiply by four. Once you have a hand there are 2⁵=32 ways to play the hand. I analyze each way and take the play with the greatest expected value. To determine the expected value of a play you have to analyze all the ways the replacement cards can fall and score each hand. In the case of throwing all five cards away there are combin(47,5)= 1533939 possible replacement hands. The total number of hands that must be analyzed to determine the best play of a specific hand is combin(47,5)+5*combin(47,4)+10*combin(47,3)+10*combin(47,2)+5*47+1, which coincidentally also equals 2598960. So if we took no short cuts at all we would have to analyze 2598960²= 6,754,593,081,600 hands. Just reducing the initial hands to 191659 we still have 498,114,074,640 hands to analyze. Clearly more short cuts are in order. It would take a desktop computer several hours at least to work through this many hands. Personally I don’t actually score any hand but use carefully chosen formulas to determine the probability of improving a hand. For example with any pair and 3 singletons the probability of improving the hand to a two pair is always the same. Things get more complicated with straights and flushes but still manageable. My program can calculate the expected return for a game of jacks or better in about one minute. Considering it used to take me over a day I’m rather proud of it. I hope this answers your question.

You’re right. There are two ways you can go for an inside straight, both of which have the same expected value. Sorry my program scolded you, I should correct that.

I always liked the name Thunder Bay for a city. I used to work at a summer camp not too far from there in Missanabie, Ontario. To answer your question 6 decks is better than 8. However the difference in the house edge is small, only about 0.03%.

Using my good ol' blackjack house edge calculator normal downtown rules result in a house edge of 0.1896%. In single deck the probability of a player blackjack and no dealer blackjack is 2*(16/52)*(4/51)*(1-2*(15/50)*(3/49))= 0.046492. Reducing the BJ win from 1.5 to 1.2 results in increasing the house edge by 0.046492*(1.5-1.2)= 1.3948%. So the house edge of this game would be 1.3948%+0.1896%=1.5844% (ouch!). For insurance to result in even money, it would have to pay 5-1 but the player could only bet 20% of the original bet on it.

First let me say that eWorld is okay as far as I know. I’ve played them and had no problems. I’m think they will pay you and this is just ordinary inconvenience most players suffer with. Unfortunately Internet casinos in general are not known for paying winners quickly. I’ve seen the range myself from 3 days (Net Club) to 33 days (Casino on Air) of those times I kept track. I would say 2 weeks is about average. After two weeks I would ask about it every 3-5 days until they pay. Perhaps they will tire of the nagging and expedite the payment. Don’t get threatening or abusive until it seems there is no other hope. I would wait until 45-60 days have gone by before getting to this stage. Once you do get tough they may shut off all communication. However if you feel things are hopeless give a final strongly worded warning. Wait a few days and then do your best to get some justice by warning others of your experience at the bulletin boards. This advice is not specific to eWorld but all Internet casinos. Keep in mind most of these casinos operate out the Caribbean and Central America where people take their sweet time to do anything.

The probability of the banker winning is 45.86% and the player winning is 44.62%. So the house edge would be 44.62%-.9*45.86%=3.346%.

You’re not the only one to complain. My partner in charge of advertising thought my feud with them was ancient history and accepted the ad. I was not happy about it and I apologize for it. Hopefully this won’t happen again.