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Ask the Wizard #128
"Anonymous" .
Thanks for the compliment.
Assuming a six-deck game, where the dealer stands on soft 17, and the player plays basic strategy here are the rounded results based on a 100-million hand simulation.
Player Hand Probabilities
| Event | Probability |
|---|---|
| Dealer has only blackjack | 1 in 22 |
| Player doubles or splits | 1 in 7.7 |
| 2 cards | 1 in 2.3 |
| 3 cards | 1 in 3.8 |
| 4 cards | 1 in 10 |
| 5 cards | 1 in 50 |
| 6 cards | 1 in 400 |
| 7 cards | 1 in 4,600 |
| 8 cards | 1 in 79,000 |
| 9 cards | 1 in 2,200,000 |
| 10 cards | 1 in 100,000,000 |
Dealer Hand Probabilities
| Event | Probability |
|---|---|
| Player has only blackjack | 1 in 22 |
| 2 cards | 1 in 3.0 |
| 3 cards | 1 in 2.4 |
| 4 cards | 1 in 6.1 |
| 5 cards | 1 in 31 |
| 6 cards | 1 in 270 |
| 7 cards | 1 in 3,700 |
| 8 cards | 1 in 79,000 |
| 9 cards | 1 in 2,200,000 |
| 10 cards | 1 in 100,000,000 |
"Anonymous" .
I get asked about bad beat jackpots about once a month. When I have the time I plan to add a section to my site about it. My hesitation is I’ll get asked about every bad beat jackpot in every poker room in the whole world.
"Anonymous" .
After numerous hours wasted I finally found that I was spinning it too fast, and a slower spin gave me the results desired, that is tails up. Also the penny isn’t completely even and starting the spin on the thinnest part seemed to add to the consistency. A few charts full of bs and a giant cardboard circle decorated like a penny got me an A for Science and failing marks for every other class as I ignored all my homework.
Jon
Alright, I tried this again spinning the penny slowly 100 times. By slowly I mean the time between flicking and when the outcome was obvious was at least two seconds but less than five. I used a nice shiny 2004-D penny. My results were 52 heads and 48 tails. So I still remain unconvinced a spinning penny at any speed is highly biased towards tails.
"Anonymous" .
The probability of zero spades is (39/52)*(38/51)*(37/50)*(36/49) = 0.303818. So the probability of at least one spade is 1-0.303818 = 0.696182.
"Anonymous" .
I would bet $200 on the player bet in baccarat. If it wins, walk, if it loses then bet $400 (or whatever you lost). Then just go into a Martingale until you win your $200 or lose your entire $5,000.
"Anonymous" .
I will say that for class 3 slots by major slot makers like IGT, Bally, and Williams do not resort to these sort of tricks. With respectable slot machines every play has the exact same probability of winning. If you don't believe me then why don’t you go from machine to machine playing each one for half an hour.
"Anonymous" .
Nothing is illegal in the mostly unregulated world of Internet gambling. Based on only your side of this I'd call it fraud. One of the purposes of my site is to advertise only reputable casinos so that you can find a safe place to play online without running into this kind of problem. If you click an advertiser's banner on my site, open an account with them, have problems, and are unable to resolve them with the casino, then I'll help arbitrate. But I'm almost never called on to help because I pick only reputable casinos in the first place and players by and large don't have problems there. I know this doesn't help for your current situation but it may help for next time, and it can certainly help anyone reading this who needs help picking an online casino in the future. Since online gaming is mostly unregulated it's extra important to pick a reputable casino in the first place. Good luck with your dispute.
Mark
I agree with you. If the cards are well shuffled then it doesn’t matter. However if they are poorly shuffled then I think the dealer should deal the cards one at a time so any clumps are broken up among the various players.
