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Last Updated: March 11, 2015

Predictor

Introduction





Predictor is one of several games invented by BetSoft, a provider of software for Internet casinos. It is a simple numbers game where the player predicts whether the next number will be higher or lower than the previous number and/or the color of the next number. It bears a strong resemblance to the Playtech game Megaball, but Predictor is played Card Sharks style, while Megaball is more like keno.

Rules



  1. The game consists of 48 mining carts, numbered from 1 to 48.
  2. Each mining cart has a color — red, blue, or green. If you divide the cart number by 3 and have a remainder of 0, then the color is green. If the remainder is 1, then it is red. If it is 2, then it is blue.
  3. The game starts with the player making a wager.
  4. The game will then select a cart at random.
  5. The player may then make any of the following wagers on the next cart, except any that are impossible to win:

    • Red
    • Blue
    • Green
    • Higher
    • Lower
    • Higher and red
    • Lower and red
    • Higher and blue
    • Lower and blue
    • Higher and green
    • Lower and green

  6. The odds offered are expressed on a "for one" basis and are 96% of fair value, rounded to the nearest penny.
  7. Carts are drawn without replacement, except for a dumped cart.
  8. The player may quit or "bank half" at any time. This means to collect half the current balance and wager the other half.
  9. On the first cart only, the player may dump it in exchange for a different cart.

Analysis



Let's look at the situation of the first cart being blue 11 as an example. The following table shows the number of possible winning carts for each bet, the probability of winning, the offered odds, the fair odds, and the expected value. The expected value is the ratio of the offered odds to the fair odds.

Blue 11 Analysis

Bet Winning
Carts
Probability Pays Fair
Odds
Expected
Value
Blue 15 0.319149 3.01 3.133333 0.960638
Red 16 0.340426 2.82 2.937500 0.960000
Green 16 0.340426 2.82 2.937500 0.960000
Higher 37 0.787234 1.22 1.270270 0.960426
Lower 10 0.212766 4.51 4.700000 0.959574
Blue and lower 3 0.063830 15.04 15.666667 0.960000
Blue and higher 12 0.255319 3.76 3.916667 0.960000
Red and lower 4 0.085106 11.28 11.750000 0.960000
Red and higher 12 0.255319 3.76 3.916667 0.960000
Green and lower 3 0.063830 15.04 15.666667 0.960000
Green and higher 13 0.276596 3.47 3.615385 0.959787


You can see in the table above that the expected odds are always close to 96%. Any variation is due to rounding of the offered odds.

Strategy



Much like roulette, just do whatever you wish. The odds are the same no matter what you do, other than the possibility to gain a fraction of a penny in the rounding.


Written by: Michael Shackleford

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