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Last Updated: March 7, 2011

Deuces Wild

Introduction


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Introduction

Deuces Wild is a new table game I noticed at the Red Rock casino in Las Vegas in February, 2011. Not until after I analyzed it did I realize it was the same game that I analyzed in 2001 called Wild Hold 'Em Fold 'Em. It should not be confused with the video poker game by the same name. The table game is a simple poker variant, where deuces are wild, the player has two chances to raise or fold, and the player wins if he gets at least a pair of aces.

There was mention of a side bet on table signage, but it evidently was not ready at the time I was there.

Rules

  1. A standard 52-card deck is used, where deuces are wild.
  2. Player makes an Ante wager.
  3. The dealer gives the player three cards.
  4. The player may make a Play wager, equal to his Ante wager, or fold.
  5. If the player is still in then the dealer gives the player a fourth card.
  6. The player may make a Raise wager, equal to two times is Ante wager, or fold.
  7. If the player is still in then the dealer gives the player a fifth card.
  8. The dealer pays players still in according to the poker value of his five cards and the pay table below.

With the exception of a pair of aces, the Ante, Play, and Raise bets all pay according to the following pay table.

Deuces Wild Pay Table

Hand Pays
Natural Royal 1000 to 1
Four deuces 200 to 1
Wild royal 30 to 1
Five of a kind 20 to 1
Straight Flush 10 to 1
Four of a kind 4 to 1
Full House 4 to 1
Flush 4 to 1
Straight 3 to 1
Three of a kind 1 to 1
Two pair 1 to 1
Pair of aces * 1 to 1
All other Loss

Note: A pair of aces pays 1 to 1 on the Ante, while the Play and Raise push.

Strategy

Play Bet Strategy

The player should make the Play bet with any of these hands, otherwise fold.

  • Any hand with a deuce.
  • A pair or three of a kind.
  • Three to a flush with an ace.
  • Three to a straight flush.

The player will make the Play bet 38.1% of the time.

Raise Bet Strategy

The player should make the Raise bet with any of these hands, otherwise fold.

  • Any hand with a deuce.
  • Any paying hand (pair of aces, two pair, three of a kind).
  • Four to a straight, flush, or straight flush.
  • Low pair (3s-Ks) *.

Note: Making the Raise bet on a low pair is exactly a break-even situation. The player can expect to lose two units on average whether raising or folding. Personally, I suggest raising in such situations, because the player has already established that he is a risk taker by gambling in the first place.

If the player correctly made the Play bet then he will also make the Raise bet 97.7% of the time.

Analysis

The following table shows the probability and return from all possible final outcomes. The 'pays' column shows the combined win for the Ante, Play, and Raise wagers. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.86%. The table is based on the player raising on 4-card hands with low pairs.

Deuces Wild Return Table

Hand Pays Combinations Probability Return
Natural Royal 4000 80 0.000002 0.006156
Four deuces 800 960 0.000018 0.014775
Wild royal 120 9,600 0.000185 0.022163
Five of a kind 80 12,480 0.000240 0.019208
Straight Flush 40 41,360 0.000796 0.031828
Four of a kind 16 631,040 0.012140 0.194244
Full House 16 253,440 0.004876 0.078013
Flush 16 215,184 0.004140 0.066237
Straight 12 790,128 0.015201 0.182410
Three of a kind 4 5,751,960 0.110659 0.442636
Two pair 4 1,162,296 0.022361 0.089443
Pair of aces 1 2,371,356 0.045621 0.045621
Fold with three cards -1 32,165,952 0.618824 -0.618824
Fold with four cards -2 447,552 0.008610 -0.017220
Nonpaying hand -4 8,125,812 0.156328 -0.625313
Total 51,979,200 1.000000 -0.068623

On average, the player will bet 2.13 units by the end of the hand. That makes the element of risk (the ratio of the expected loss to total bet) equal to 3.23%.


Written by: Michael Shackleford

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