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Last Updated: February 14, 2022

Super Bowl 56 Part 2


I’d like to start this newsletter with a ranking of the NFL teams in terms of regular season performance during the 2021 season. My metric is simple, points scored minus points allowed.

TEAM POINTS SCORED POINTS ALLOWED NET POINTS
BUFFALO BILLS 483 289 194
DALLAS COWBOYS 530 358 172
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 462 303 159
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 511 353 158
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 480 364 116
LOS ANGELES RAMS 460 372 88
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 451 365 86
CINCINNATI BENGALS 460 376 84
ARIZONA CARDINALS 449 366 83
GREEN BAY PACKERS 450 371 79
TENNESSEE TITANS 419 354 65
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 427 365 62
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 444 385 59
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 395 366 29
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 364 335 29
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 474 459 15
DENVER BRONCOS 335 322 13
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 425 426 -1
BALTIMORE RAVENS 387 392 -5
CLEVELAND BROWNS 349 371 -22
MIAMI DOLPHINS 341 373 -32
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 343 398 -55
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 374 439 -65
CHICAGO BEARS 311 407 -96
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM 335 434 -99
CAROLINA PANTHERS 304 404 -100
DETROIT LIONS 325 467 -142
ATLANTA FALCONS 313 459 -146
NEW YORK GIANTS 258 416 -158
HOUSTON TEXANS 280 452 -172
NEW YORK JETS 310 504 -194
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 253 457 -204
TOTAL 12502 12502 0

Congratulations to the Buffalo Bills for ranking first and decisively at that! Interestingly, the two teams to make the Super Bowl are ranked 6th and 8th. Note both Super Bowl teams are separated by four points only, or 0.24 points per game played, which is why I say that both teams are about equally strong and to get +4.5 points on the Bengals is a good bet. I’m putting my money (but not a lot of it) where my mouth is on that one.

Super Bowl party at the Palms, 2007

Picture taken during a Super Bowl party at the Palms, 2007.

Here are some season averages per game for the 2021 regular season.

Total points scored = 45.96

Total touchdowns = 5.23

Total two-point conversions = 0.28

Total point after touchdowns = 4.32

Total field goals = 3.21

Total safeties = 0.03

Here are some kicking success rates per attempt.

Probability field goal made = 85.1%

Probability extra point made = 93.4%

Next, to give you something that might help you with your Super Bowl prop bets, here are some probabilities of winning various bets I tend to make every year. Except for the two-point conversion, the probabilities are based on the 16 seasons between 2000 and 2015. A rule change in 2015 I believe significantly increased the number of two-point conversions, so for that probability I used the 2021 season only.

The fair line column is for a bet on the event to occur. The yes and no columns show the current lines at the South Point casino and all other casinos that use their lines, like the Rampart. The only exception is the three-point margin of victory, which the South Point doesn’t offer this year, so I got the lines from the Westgate.

BET PROBABILITY FAIR LINE YES NO
SAFETY 0.062249 1506 700 -1100
OVERTIME 0.063512 1475 650 -1000
TWO-POINT CONVERSION 0.240986 315 210 -250
THREE-POINT MARGIN OF VICTORY 0.153132 553 400 -500
FIRST SCORE IS A TOUCHDOWN 0.596711 -148 -160 140
LAST SCORE IS A TOUCHDOWN 0.628138 -169 -220 190
SCORELESS QUARTER 0.283886 252 400 -500
TEAM TO SCORE FIRST WINS 0.642525 -180 -175 155

Before I go further, I should give a warning that the data used for the probability for most of the props is very dated. As mentioned, for most props the data used goes back to the year 2000. Football was a different game back then. There was less scoring, especially with field goals. So, I would be very slow to bet on anything that favors touchdowns over field goals, like first score to be a touchdown. I would also not bet on a scoreless quarter, based on these averages, because of the high number of points projected to be scored (49 to 50) compared to historical averages.

I still stand by the bridge jumpers, which I bet every Super Bowl. These are the bets where you have to bet a lot to win a little. In particular, no safety, no overtime, and no two-point conversion. For example, the fair line to lay on the no safety is -1475 and you can get it at the time of this writing at -1000. However, don’t bet it yet. When recreational bettors flood into Vegas for Super Bowl weekend they will foolishly bet on a safety, overtime, and two-point conversions. Except the price to drop by Sunday morning to about -800 to -900 on no safety and overtime and about -220 on no two-point conversion.

I’m sorry I don’t have any more prop tips this season. To be honest, I consider myself largely retired from prop betting. I now piggyback on a friend I trust with a degree in statistics who bets sports for a living (no, it’s not James Holzhauer). Despite the lack is prop suggestions, I hope you find the statistics presented to be useful or interesting. I put a lot of time into the newsletter, so hope you like it.

In closing, enjoy the game and celebrate responsibly.