February 9, 2004

I'm not one of those gamblers who only brags about winnings but says nothing about losses. Last year I tooted my own horn about winning 29.32% on my Super Bowl proposition bets. This year I took a beating, losing 28.28%. In both years I hoped for a low-scoring boring game. The craziness of the second and fourth quarters this year did me in. Here were my biggest plays:

The Wizard's 2004 Super Bowl Picks

Bet Description Odds Outcome
No 2-point conversion -420 to -450 loss
No safety -600 win
No overtime -800 win
Both teams make 33+ yard FG - NO -115 loss
Panthers get a rushing TD - NO -115 loss
Field goals under 3.5 -135 to +135 win
Defensive touchdown - YES +150 to +158 loss
Player to score first - field 800 loss
Brady will throw at least one interception 110 win
Total TD passes thrown by Delhomme under 1.5 -220 loss
Patriots to commit more penalties +1.5 -155 loss
Three unanswered scores - NO 150 win

I had lots of smaller bets I won't list which did really badly.

There were two local seminars on Super Bowl props. I didn't attend either but I read that their picks also did very badly. In general the recreational bettors like to bet that things will happen, which creates value in bets that things won't happen. So in a high-scoring game the sharp prop bettors eat it.

Next year if I have the money I'm going to hedge my bets by betting the over. Although I normally advise against hedging there are places where the vig on the over/under is only 5%. Plus with a large percentage of my bankroll spread over highly correlated bets an exception to my no hedging rule is called for.

Sorry I didn't share my picks this year. The reason is I didn't have much of a bankroll so I didn't bother to research my picks as much as I would have had I more money to risk. I didn't want to put my stamp of approval on anything unless I looked at it carefully. In retrospect you can be glad. Next year I hope to devote more time to this and share some of my strongest picks, to my newsletter subscribers only of course.

No casino plug this issue. However please remember that playing the advertisers is what keeps the website free, and I need the support. If you play right you should make money anyway from the bonuses, so both of us will be happy!