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Monopoly Big Spin
Introduction
Monopoly Big Spin is a game by Scientific Games that can be played at Draft Kings. It is a big six type of game, where the player bets on where a prize wheel will stop. Some bets lead to a random win, as determined by a Bonus Wheel.
Rules
- The game uses a wheel with various possible outcomes, each of which the player may bet on. The table below shows the possible bets and what they pay.
- All wins are on a "to one" basis.
- If the player bets on any of the eight colors, utilities, or railroads, and the wheel stops in that section, then the player will win according to the odds posted in the table below.
- Wins are Chance, Community Chest, Go, and Free Parking will trigger the Bonus Wheel. The possible wins of the Bonus Wheel are shown below.
- Wins on Chance and Community chest will be the outcome of one Bonus Wheel spin.
- Wins on Go will be 40 plus one spin of the Bonus Wheel.
- Wins on Free Parking will be 30 plus the sum of two Bonus Wheel spins.
Pay Table
| Bet | Fixed Win | Bonus Spins |
|---|---|---|
| Brown | 5 | 0 |
| Light blue | 6 | 0 |
| Pink | 7 | 0 |
| Orange | 8 | 0 |
| Red | 10 | 0 |
| Yellow | 12 | 0 |
| Green | 17 | 0 |
| Dark blue | 25 | 0 |
| Railroad | 12 | 0 |
| Utilities | 12 | 0 |
| Chance | 0 | 1 |
| Community Chest | 0 | 1 |
| Go | 40 | 1 |
| Free Parking | 30 | 2 |
Bonus Wheel
| Bet | Pays |
|---|---|
| Advance to St. Charles Place | 5 |
| Beauty Contest | 8 |
| Inherit Money | 9 |
| Stock sale | 10 |
| Take a Ride on the Reading | 10 |
| Advance to Go | 20 |
| Elected Chairman | 20 |
| Advance to Boardwalk | 30 |
| Bank error in your favor | 50 |
| Get out of jail free | 200 |
Example
In the following image, I bet on the four bets that win at least one Bonus Spin.
The wheel stops on Chance, triggering one Bonus Spin.
The Bonus Wheel lands in purple, which pays 9 to 1.
I bet $1 on Chance, so my total "win" (not deducting for my lost bets, but including my original bet back) is $10.
Analysis
The following table shows the possible outcomes of the Bonus Wheel, my estimate of the weighting, probability, and contribution to the average win. While I do not claim the weights are correct, they were carefully chosen to create an average win of 21.973333, which I do believe is accurate, based on the information provided in the help files.
Bonus Wheel
| Win | Pays | Weight | Probability | Expected Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Charles | 5 | 66 | 0.220000 | 1.100000 |
| Beauty Contest | 8 | 46 | 0.153333 | 1.226667 |
| Inherit Money | 9 | 36 | 0.120000 | 1.080000 |
| Stock sale | 10 | 27 | 0.090000 | 0.900000 |
| Ride on the Reading | 10 | 27 | 0.090000 | 0.900000 |
| Advance to Go | 20 | 23 | 0.076667 | 1.533333 |
| Elected Chairman | 20 | 23 | 0.076667 | 1.533333 |
| Advance to Boardwalk | 30 | 22 | 0.073333 | 2.200000 |
| Bank error | 50 | 17 | 0.056667 | 2.833333 |
| Get out of jail free | 200 | 13 | 0.043333 | 8.666667 |
| Total | 300 | 1.000000 | 21.973333 |
The following table shows all the available bets, the average win, probability of winning, and expected return.
Return Table
| Bet | Average Win |
Probability | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brown | 5 | 0.153333 | 0.920000 |
| Light blue | 6 | 0.136190 | 0.953333 |
| Pink | 7 | 0.119167 | 0.953333 |
| Orange | 8 | 0.102222 | 0.920000 |
| Red | 10 | 0.085152 | 0.936667 |
| Yellow | 12 | 0.068205 | 0.886667 |
| Green | 17 | 0.051111 | 0.920000 |
| Dark blue | 25 | 0.034100 | 0.886600 |
| Railroad | 12 | 0.068205 | 0.886667 |
| Utilities | 12 | 0.068205 | 0.886667 |
| Chance | 20.973333 | 0.043576 | 0.957500 |
| Community Chest | 20.973333 | 0.043576 | 0.957500 |
| Go | 60.973333 | 0.014469 | 0.896700 |
| Free Parking | 72.946667 | 0.012489 | 0.923500 |