Last Updated: May 10, 2011
Betting System Challenge
Following were the rules of my betting system challenge, which appeared on my site from about 1999 to 2005. I took it down because in 6 years I only received one serious challenge, yet hundreds of people wasted my time asking questions about it or using it as an excuse to debate me with no intention of accepting the challenge. Normally I don’t respond to e-mail about betting systems so people were using the challenge as a way of baiting me into discussing the topic. So in January 2005 I took down the offer because it consumed too much of my time and usually led to nothing. However, for the record, here were the rules:
The system must be clearly explained. It should not have vague run-on sentences, but explain exactly how much to bet at each and every step, and under exactly what conditions. There can be no guesswork or human judgment involved. I must be able to code it into a computer.
The system must have a betting range of no more than 1 to 1028 units. So a bet of at least 1 unit must be placed on every trial and the maximum bet must be 1028 units.
The system must be played on craps, roulette, or baccarat under ordinary United States rules.
Your $2000 must be deposited in escrow up front with a neutral third party. I will deposit my $20,000 in escrow at the same time.
After your deposit is made I will program the system in C++. A random simulation will then be performed of one billion bets resolved. The results of my simulation are binding. If you feel I did not run an honest simulation, I will provide the source code and you can have your own experts verify its accuracy.
If the player shows a profit at the end of the simulation you win. If the player shows a loss I win. Should you win, I’ll state publicly, on my main page, that your system defies the laws of probability and that I was wrong.