Gambling Guide
Ask the Wizard #22
- There is a 50-cent charge on each hand if your wager is between $5 and $25
- There is a $1 charge on each hand if your wager is $26 to $500.
- You can split up to 4 times, not including aces
-You can double on any first two cards - You can double after a split
- Dealer stands on all 17s
- Early surrender is available
- One card on each hand if you split aces
- $100 bonus on getting 7 cards without busting
- $100 bonus on getting 3 7's in a row
- $500 bonus for getting 3 Blackjacks in a row
- $10,000 bonus for getting 4 Blackjacks in a row
Any help you can give is appreciated.
Bryan
I'm going to assume that eight decks are used and that the bonuses are not applicable if the dealer has a blackjack. Using the Blackjack Count Analzyer I get a player advantage of 1.4% with a $5 bet. Unfortunately, this advantage is not available at greater bet sizes as the comparable benefit of the bonuses decreases and the additional fee for bets of $25 or over. With a $24 bet the house edge is 1.4%, and with a $25 bet it is 3.3%. This certainly is a very interesting game. If you play it let me know how you do.
Scott T.
Don't worry about depositing too much money. I almost always deposit the maximum when playing for a bonus. What is much more likely to arouse suspicion is not playing enough.
John from New York
First let me answer the unasked question on the probability that a specific number will show up n times on a random bill. There are 8 digits on a bill so the probability of n of a specific number is combin(8,n)*0.1n*0.98-n/108. Here is a table showing the probability for 0 to 8 of a specific number.
Specific Number Oddsin Liar's Poker
| Number | Probability |
|---|---|
| 8 | 0.00000001 |
| 7 | 0.00000072 |
| 6 | 0.00002268 |
| 5 | 0.00040824 |
| 4 | 0.00459270 |
| 3 | 0.03306744 |
| 2 | 0.14880348 |
| 1 | 0.38263752 |
| 0 | 0.43046721 |
| Total | 1.00000000 |
The next table shows the probability of every possible type of bill, categorized by the number of each n-of-a-kind. For example, the serial number 66847680 would have one three of a kind, one pair, and three singletons, for a probability of 0.1693440.
General Probabilities in Liar's Poker
| 8 o.a.k. | 7 o.a.k. | 6 o.a.k. | 5 o.a.k. | 4 o.a.k. | 3 o.a.k. | 2 o.a.k. | 1 o.a.k. | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.0000001 | |||||||
| 1 | 1 | 0.0000072 | ||||||
| 1 | 1 | 0.0000252 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 0.0002016 | ||||||
| 1 | 1 | 0.0000504 | ||||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0012096 | |||||
| 1 | 3 | 0.0028224 | ||||||
| 2 | 0.0000315 | |||||||
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0020160 | |||||
| 1 | 2 | 0.0015120 | ||||||
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.0211680 | |||||
| 1 | 4 | 0.0211680 | ||||||
| 2 | 1 | 0.0020160 | ||||||
| 2 | 2 | 0.0141120 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.0423360 | |||||
| 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.1693440 | |||||
| 1 | 5 | 0.0846720 | ||||||
| 4 | 0.0052920 | |||||||
| 3 | 2 | 0.1270080 | ||||||
| 2 | 4 | 0.3175200 | ||||||
| 1 | 6 | 0.1693440 | ||||||
| 8 | 0.0181440 | |||||||
| Total | 1.0000000 | |||||||
o.a.k. = "of a kind"
For more information, see my page on liars poker.
Robert from Hamilton, Canada
Assuming you put the greatest priority on player odds I would have to go with a Unified Gaming casino. You'll enjoy a player edge of 0.57% assuming you following the proper strategy.
Mike Castelluccio from Lafayette, U.S.
Thanks for your kind words. Unfortunately I do not have any such proof at hand. If I did set about proving it myself I would use a computer simulation. However skeptics would probably claim something ridiculous, like that bad players disrupt the karma of the game, which can’t be replicated in a computer.
Mel C. from Coquitlam, BC, Canada
You’re absolutely right. The fewer bets actually made the better the odds are of actually winning. The expected loss is also a function of the total amount bet. If the player keeps circulating money back and forth between himself and the dealer the house edge will gradually grind the player down. However maximizing the odds of winning should not be the only objective to gambling. Having fun is also important. Plopping an entire bankroll on the table in one bet may not be as fun as playing it out gradually. It may also may have a greater chance at a large loss depending on how much play is involved in the alternative. If one really wants to cut down the house edge the best thing to do is put your money in the machine marked "change."
John from Westminster, USA
When the dealer stands on a soft 17, the dealer will bust about 29.1% of the time. When the dealer hits on a soft 17, the dealer will bust about 29.6% of the time. According to my blackjack appendix 4, the probability of a net win is 42.42%. However, if we skip ties, the probability is 46.36%. So, the probability of a four wins in a row is 0.46364 = 4.62%.
Denise from Lowell, USA
Based on my research, the placement of the machine doesn't matter. Regarding what type of slot to play, choose something simple, not a game with fancy signage and video. My best advice is to switch to video poker.
Herman from Manila, Philippines
I have a whole page on the topic of card counting in baccarat. Briefly, the best card for the Player is 4, and for the Banker is 6.
