Ask the Wizard #187
John B. from Riverside, Illinois
We can see from my analysis of the Fire Bet that the probability of a shooter making all six points is 0.000162435. So, the value of the promotion per shooter is $4,000 × 0.000162435 = 0.649739.
The next question to be asked is what is the expected loss per shooter. The house edge on the pass line bet is 7/495 = 1.414141%. The tricky part is how many pass line bets will a shooter make, on average.
There are four possible states the shooter can be in. Let's define each one as the expected number of future pass line bets for that shooter.
- A = Come out roll
- B = Point of 4 or 10 made
- C = Point of 5 or 9 made
- D = Point of 6 or 8 made
Here are the equations showing the probability of each state leading to the next state.
A = 1 + (12/36)*A + (6/36)*B + (8/36)*C + (10/36)*D
B = (1/3)*A
C = (2/5)*A
D = (5/11)*A
A little algebra results in A = 2.525510, the number of pass line bets made per shooter.
So, the expected loss per $5 shooter is $5*2.525510*0.0141414 = 0.178571.
The expected amount bet by the shooter is $5*2.525510=$12.627551.
Finally, the expected return is the expected win divided by the expected bet: (0.649739-0.178571)/12.627551 = 3.73127%. So the house edge is -3.73%.
Mirza from Uppsala, Sweden
The K/2 is much better, because the K/3 players may have to split the pot. As my three to five player Texas Hold’em calculator shows, the K/2 player can expect to win 42.96% of the pot, and each K/3 player 28.52%.
Davis from Carson
All I know of is the NIGC. However, as far as I know, there is no formal process to arbitrate a dispute between player and casino. Even if there were such a dispute process, with this lack of evidence, I think your odds would not look good. A good way to make a case would be to tally blackjacks and hands played, or fives and sixes against all cards played, and then have the results analyzed. Regarding the tapping of the table when you have an ace up, I think the dealers do it as a way of saying "good luck," because players tend to slap the table in that situation.
Michael from Knoxville, TN
Yes! The following table shows the house edge as both player and banker according to the number of other players. The last column shows the ratio of overall action as banker to player to break even. So with seven players, or six opponents, you would need to bet 13 times more as banker than player.
Required Banker Ratio to Break Even in Pai Gow Poker
Mark from Braham
I believe the free Winpoker demo will do that and never expire. The download is available at www.zamzone.com.
Rick from Alpena
In a no limit game the minimum bet is whatever the big blind is. This is true at before and after the flop.
Jay R. from Shelton, CT
From my pai gow poker section, the probability of the banker winning is 29.91%. So instead of paying the usual 5% commission as player you are paying 4.76%. That will lower the house edge by 0.2991*(0.05-0.0476) = 0.07%.
Yester from Amsterdam
If a 7/2 off-suit faced off against a 6/2 off-suit, the possible outcomes would be as follows, according to my Texas Hold ’Em Calculator.
7/2 wins: 57.07%
6/2 wins: 25.13%
However that doesn’t prove that 7/2 is the superior hand in general. Considering only your own hand, according to my various power rating tables, 7/2 off-suit is worse than 6/2 off-suit. For four or fewer players, the worst hand is 3/2 off-suit.
So, if the bet was phrased as who would win between 6/2 and 7/2 offsuit, then you win. However that doesn’t prove that 7/2 is the better hand in general, only for that one situation.