Gambling Guide
Ask the Wizard #107
"Anonymous" .
This would be a terrible play. For example if you doubled on a blackjack against a 5 (six decks dealer stands on soft 17) your expected gain would be 0.622362, according to my blackjack appendix 9I. So even in an even money game this would still be an error costing about 38% of the bet.
"Anonymous" .
Wong is referring to a player 12 against a dealer 4 and is quoting The Theory of Blackjack, page 176, by Peter Griffin. Yes, he is right. In a seven deck game the expected value by hitting is -0.210820 and standing is -0.211106, so hitting is higher. However with eight decks hitting is -0.2111161 and standing is -0.211100, so standing is higher. This is such a borderline play that the number of decks does make a difference between seven and eight. Here is an even better example. With A-4 against a 4 you should double all the way through 26 decks but hit with 27 or more.
"Anonymous" .
This would make me furious too. While not banking it should not make any difference who is banking. I have never heard of an etiquette rule written about this situation but it falls under a breach of common courtesy in my opinion.
"Anonymous" .
Thanks for kind words. The house edge is always the same in any game given the same rules and skill level of the player. The bankroll and betting strategy do not matter. Even if I sat down at a $5 game with $5 with the goal of winning $1,000,000 the house edge would still be the same. Although my probability of succeeding is low my worst casino scenario is nothing compared to the best case scenario.
"Anonymous" .
In would say in a large Strip type casino the number of counters who know what they are doing on a given night is in my best guess one half of a single person (or two casinos would have one person). The reason I think it is this low is in my many hundreds of hours at the blackjack tables I only spotted other counters twice.
"Anonymous" .
The probability of receiving ace/king is (8/52)*(4/51) = 0.012066. The probability of receiving any pair is (3/51) = 0.058824. So the probability of a pair or better is 0.07089. The probability of receiving exactly seven hands of ace/king or better is combin(35,7)*(.07089)^7*(1-.07089)^28 = 0.00772. To work out the probability of 7 or more we would have to go through a total of 7 to 35 one at a time. This adds up to 0.010366551.
