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Last Updated: June 28, 2009

'Not So Ugly Ducks' Deuces Wild Strategy

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This section contains my intermediate strategy for the "Not So Ugly Ducks" deuces wild game, mostly noted by paying 16 for a 5 of a kind and 10 for a straight flush. The following table shows the probabilities and return based on optimal strategy.

Return Table for NSUD

Hand Pays Combinations Probability Return
Natural royal flush 800 458740044 0.000023 0.018411
4 deuces 200 3722640204 0.000187 0.037351
Wild royal flush 25 38014202784 0.001907 0.047677
5 of a kind 16 61970767656 0.003109 0.049743
Straight flush 10 102265178496 0.005130 0.051304
4 of a kind 4 1217014431948 0.061055 0.244218
Full house 4 520619308704 0.026118 0.104473
Flush 3 413496638196 0.020744 0.062232
Straight 2 1142019668916 0.057292 0.114585
3 of a kind 1 5327850287628 0.267285 0.267285
Nothing 0 11105798652624 0.557150 0.000000
Total 19933230517200 1.000000 0.997278

Intermediate Strategy

Following is my intermediate strategy.

4 Deuces

Hand Expected Return
4 Deuces 200

3 Deuces

Hand Expected Return
Wild Royal 25
Five of a kind 16
3 deuces 14.344126 to 14.482886

2 Deuces

Hand Expected Return
Pat Four of a kind to Wild Royal 5.02128 to 25
4 to a RF 4.382979 to 5.06383
4 to a SF: 0 or 1 gap except 34, 35, 46 3.212766 to 3.468085
2 deuces 3.034968 to 3.095035

1 Deuce

Hand Expected Return
Straight flush to wild royal 10 to 25
4 to a RF 3.489362 to 4.106383
Flush to 4K 3 to 5.0213
4 to a SF: 0 or 1 gap 2.191489 to 2.510638
Straight 2
4 to a SF: 2 gaps 1.9574
3 of a kind 1.888067
4 to a SF: A low 1.680851
3 to a RF: J-K high 1.13136 to 1.379278
3 to a SF: 0 gaps (67 to 9T) 1.108233 to 1.153562
3 to a RF: A high 1.06013 to 1.07308
3 to a SF: 1 gap (57 to 9J), 45 1.010176 to 1.074931
4 to a straight: 0 gaps (567 to TJQ) 1
1 deuce 0.990867 to 1.026446

0 Deuces

Hand Expected Return
Royal flush 800
4 to a RF 19.659574 to 20
3 of a kind to 4 of a kind 1.888067 to 25
4 to a SF 1.638298 to 1.914894
3 to a RF 1.304348 to 1.517114
4 to a flush 0.765957
2 pair 0.680851
3 to a SF: 0 gaps (567 to 9TJ) 0.547641 to 0.592044
Pair 0.546778
4 to a straight: 0 gaps (4567 to TJQK) 0.510638
3 to a SF: 1 or 2 gaps, 345, 456 0.412581 to 0.509713
2 to a RF: J or Q high 0.344249 to 0.407956
3 to a SF: A low 0.33765 to 0.345051
4 to a staight: 1 gap, 3456 0.340426
2 to a RF: K high 0.323343 to 0.341351
Toss everything 0.313949 to 0.332771

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