"Not so Ugly Ducks" Deuces Wild Startegy

Last update: March 31, 2006

This section contains my intermediate strategy for the "Not So Ugly Ducks" deuces wild game, mostly noted by paying 16 for a 5 of a kind and 10 for a straight flush. The following table shows the probabilities and return based on optimal strategy.

Return Table for NSUD

Hand Pays Combinations Probability Return

Natural royal flush 800 458740044 0.000023 0.018411

4 deuces 200 3722640204 0.000187 0.037351

Wild royal flush 25 38014202784 0.001907 0.047677

5 of a kind 16 61970767656 0.003109 0.049743

Straight flush 10 102265178496 0.005130 0.051304

4 of a kind 4 1217014431948 0.061055 0.244218

Full house 4 520619308704 0.026118 0.104473

Flush 3 413496638196 0.020744 0.062232

Straight 2 1142019668916 0.057292 0.114585

3 of a kind 1 5327850287628 0.267285 0.267285

Nothing 0 11105798652624 0.557150 0.000000

Total 19933230517200 1.000000 0.997278

Intermediate Strategy

Following is my intermediate strategy.

4 Deuces

Hand Expected Return

4 Deuces 200

3 Deuces

Hand Expected Return

Wild Royal 25

Five of a kind 16

3 deuces 14.344126 to 14.482886

2 Deuces

Hand Expected Return

Pat Four of a kind to Wild Royal 5.02128 to 25

4 to a RF 4.382979 to 5.06383

4 to a SF: 0 or 1 gap except 34, 35, 46 3.212766 to 3.468085

2 deuces 3.034968 to 3.095035

1 Deuce

Hand Expected Return

Straight flush to wild royal 10 to 25

4 to a RF 3.489362 to 4.106383

Flush to 4K 3 to 5.0213

4 to a SF: 0 or 1 gap 2.191489 to 2.510638

Straight 2

4 to a SF: 2 gaps 2.191489 to 2.510638

3 of a kind 1.888067

4 to a SF: A low 1.680851

3 to a RF: J-K high 1.13136 to 1.379278

3 to a SF: 0 gaps (67 to 9T) 1.108233 to 1.153562

3 to a RF: A high 1.06013 to 1.07308

3 to a SF: 1 gap (57 to 9J), 45 1.010176 to 1.074931

4 to a straight: 0 gaps (567 to TJQ) 1

1 deuce 0.990867 to 1.026446

0 Deuces

Hand Expected Return

Royal flush 800

4 to a RF 19.659574 to 20

3 of a kind to 4 of a kind 1.888067 to 25

4 to a SF 1.638298 to 1.914894

3 to a RF 1.304348 to 1.517114

4 to a flush 0.765957

2 pair 0.680851

3 to a SF: 0 gaps (567 to 9TJ) 0.547641 to 0.592044

Pair 0.546778

4 to a straight: 0 gaps (4567 to TJQK) 0.510638

3 to a SF: 1 or 2 gaps, 345, 456 0.412581 to 0.509713

2 to a RF: J or Q high 0.344249 to 0.407956

3 to a SF: A low 0.33765 to 0.345051

4 to a staight: 1 gap, 3456 0.340426

2 to a RF: K high 0.323343 to 0.341351

Toss everything 0.313949 to 0.332771

Methodology

My video poker program can produce an optimal strategy to any game. However the said optimal strategy to this game was 7798 lines long. I then went through by hand and grouped like hands according to my best judgment. Following are some exceptions a more advanced strategy would address.

1 deuces alone sometimes beats 4 to an outside straight with a deuces.
Sometimes play two to a royal, ace high, with no deuces.
Sometimes play two consecutive suited cards, with no deuces.

Play For Fun

Practice playing Not So Ugly Ducks on my free Java game.

Other Resources

For an NSUD strategy card I recommend the NSU Deuces Wild Strategy Card by Bob Dancer and Liam W. Daily.

For software that can produce a strategy to most video poker games I recommend Video Poker Strategy Master by Tom Ski or Frugal Video Poker Software by Jim Wolf (contributions by Jean Scott).

My Video Poker Offerings

Basic Video Poker Info

My Main Video Poker page
Return tables:
Probability of Ruin for single-play video poker
Random simulations for multi-play video poker.
The standard deviation of n-play video poker.

Video Poker Variations

All about Double Pay Poker.
All about Chase the Royal.
All about Pick 'em Poker.

Practice / Play Video Poker for Free

Analyzer

Analyze the return for almost any video poker pay table.

My Strategies

Jacks or Better:

Simple Strategy (return of 99.46%)
Intermediate strategy (return of 99.52%)
Optimal Strategy (return of 99.54%)

Full Pay Deuces Wild:

Simple Strategy (return of 100.71%)
Optimal Strategy (return of 100.77%)
When to play two to a royal, king high, with no penalty cards
When to play two suited high cards, ace high, with a deuce
When to play two to a royal, king high, with a straight penalty card

Other Strategies:

Other Stuff

Jacks or better quiz.
Probability distribution for each hand by number of cards held in full pay Deuces Wild.
Programming video poker tips.
San Diego County video poker survey.

The Wizard's other sites: Wizard of Macau, Sweat the Money, Math Problems