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One Up Baccarat Side Bet

Introduction

One Up is a side bet found in commission-free versions of baccarat that push the Banker bet on a winning 3-card Banker score of 7. This form of baccarat is most commonly known as EZ Baccarat but in the case of the One Up side bet, the game is titled Fortune 7.
 

I have heard of placements of Fortune 7, with the One Up side bet in Washington, California, and Ohio.

Rules

 

Following are the rules for the One Up side bet.

  1. Standard baccarat rules are follows.
  2. The One Up side bet shall pay 30 to 1 on a Player victory of 1 over 0.
  3. The One Up side bet shall pay 9 to 1 on all other Player victories by a margin of one point.
  4. In the event of a Banker win, tie, or Player win of two or more points, the One Up bet shall lose.
 

Analysis

 

The following table shows the number of combinations, probability, and contribution to the return of all possible outcomes. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 8.81%

Player One Up

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Score of 1-0 30 24,639,193,538,560 0.004929 0.147883
Margin of victory of 1 9 379,436,848,132,096 0.075912 0.683205
All other -1 4,594,322,233,832,700 0.919159 -0.919159
Total   4,998,398,275,503,360 1.000000 -0.088071
 

Not such a bet exists, but here is what the odds would look if there were a Banker version of the One Up, that paid on Banker wins by one point.

Banker One Up

Event Pays Combinations Probability Return
Score of 1-0 30 24,291,119,898,624 0.004860 0.145793
Margin of victory of 1 9 404,822,098,481,152 0.080990 0.728913
All other -1 4,569,285,057,123,580 0.914150 -0.914150
Total   4,998,398,275,503,360 1.000000 -0.039443