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Tie Max (formerly Lucky Max)
Introduction
Tie Max, formerly known as Lucky Max, is a pair of baccarat side bets based on the highest individual card in the event of a tie. I first heard about it in December 2015, when it appeared at the Gold Coast in Las Vegas.
Rules
- Standard baccarat rules are followed, which I assume the reader is familiar with. For this analysis, eight decks are assumed.
- The game pays based on the highest point value card in the event of a tie. For example, if the Banker had K-7-2, and the Player had 10-5-4, then the highest point value among all six cards would be the 7.
- The High Tie Max bet pays 10 to 1 if the the highest card in a tie is a 6 to 9. All other events lose.
- The Low Tie Max bet pays 55 to 1 if the the highest card in a tie is a 0 to 5. All other events lose.
Analysis
The following tables show the probability and contribution to the return for both bets. The lower right cells reflects a house edge of 16.45% for the Low Tie and 11.75% for the High Tie.
Low Tie Max Return Table
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low tie | 55 | 74,570,116,880,640 | 0.014919 | 0.820534 |
| Loser | -1 | 4,923,828,158,622,710 | 0.985081 | -0.985081 |
| Total | 4,998,398,275,503,350 | 1.000000 | -0.164547 |
High Tie Max Return Table
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High tie | 10 | 401,057,309,592,576 | 0.080237 | 0.802372 |
| Loser | -1 | 4,597,340,965,910,770 | 0.919763 | -0.919763 |
| Total | 4,998,398,275,503,350 | 1.000000 | -0.117391 |
External Links
A.P. Heat — Analysis by Eliot Jacobson. He states the Low Tie bet is very vulnerable to card counters and explains how to beat it.