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Cow Cow Baccarat Side bets
Introduction
Cow Cow is a pair of side bets used in the live dealer baccarat game by SA Gaming. To win, the player must pick the correct side, Player or Banker, and the win or loss depends on the total points of the winning side.
Rules
- The side bet is based on standard baccarat, which I assume the reader is already familiar with.
- There are two Cow Cow bets, one on the Player and the other on the Banker.
- For each Cow Cow bet to win, the chosen side must win in the base game.
- When the player makes a Cow Cow bet, he should choose carefully his bet, as he can lose up to nine times the "wager" he places on the table.
- Both Cow Cow bets win and lose according to the total points of the winning side.
- Except for a win with nine points, if the player chose the correct side, then he will win at odds equal to the winning number of points. In the event of a win with nine points, the player must pay a 5% commission, equating to a win of 8.45 to 1.
- If the player chooses the wrong side, then he must pay an amount equal to the produce of his initial wager and the total points of the winning side.
- A tie is a push.
Here are some examples:
- Player bets $1 on the Player Cow Cow, the final score is Player 7 Banker 6. The player will win $7.
- Player bets $1 on the Player Cow Cow, the final score is Player 7 Banker 8. The player will lose $8.
- Player bets $1 on the Banker Cow Cow, the final score is Player 5 Banker 9. The player will win $8.45.
Analysis
The following table shows the number of combinations, probability of each event, and contribution to the return for all possible outcomes on the Banker Cow Cow bet. The lower right cell shows that the ratio of the expected loss to the base wager is 7.69%. I don't think I can equate this to the "house edge" because the player can lose much more than the base wager. I can say the average amount the player will win or lose per bet is 6.308123 times his base wager. The ratio of the expected loss to expected amount changing hands is 1.22%.
Banker Cow Cow
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banker win of 9 | 8.45 | 586,850,279,002,112 | 0.117408 | 0.992095 |
| Banker win of 8 | 8 | 529,914,458,673,152 | 0.106017 | 0.848135 |
| Banker win of 7 | 7 | 384,279,324,919,808 | 0.076880 | 0.538163 |
| Banker win of 6 | 6 | 269,232,304,455,680 | 0.053864 | 0.323182 |
| Banker win of 5 | 5 | 216,715,928,915,968 | 0.043357 | 0.216785 |
| Banker win of 4 | 4 | 163,359,790,133,248 | 0.032682 | 0.130730 |
| Banker win of 3 | 3 | 72,927,778,568,192 | 0.014590 | 0.043771 |
| Banker win of 2 | 2 | 44,681,581,871,104 | 0.008939 | 0.017878 |
| Banker win of 1 | 1 | 24,291,119,898,624 | 0.004860 | 0.004860 |
| Tie | 0 | 475,627,426,473,216 | 0.095156 | 0.000000 |
| Player win of 1 | -1 | 24,639,193,538,560 | 0.004929 | -0.004929 |
| Player win of 2 | -2 | 44,328,525,111,296 | 0.008869 | -0.017737 |
| Player win of 3 | -3 | 62,946,423,310,336 | 0.012593 | -0.037780 |
| Player win of 4 | -4 | 86,165,771,096,064 | 0.017239 | -0.068955 |
| Player win of 5 | -5 | 122,838,277,197,824 | 0.024576 | -0.122878 |
| Player win of 6 | -6 | 312,658,895,192,064 | 0.062552 | -0.375311 |
| Player win of 7 | -7 | 408,043,979,470,848 | 0.081635 | -0.571445 |
| Player win of 8 | -8 | 555,823,197,134,848 | 0.111200 | -0.889602 |
| Player win of 9 | -9 | 613,074,020,540,416 | 0.122654 | -1.103887 |
| Total | 4,998,398,275,503,360 | 1.000000 | -0.076924 |
The following table shows the number of combinations, probability of each event, and contribution to the return for all possible outcomes on the Player Cow Cow bet. The lower right cell shows that the ratio of the expected loss to the base wager is 5.51%. I don't think I can equate this to the "house edge" because the player can lose much more than the base wager. I can say the average amount the player will win or lose per bet is 6.305237 times his base wager. The ratio of the expected loss to expected amount changing hands is 0.87%.
Player Cow Cow
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player win of 9 | 8.45 | 613,074,020,540,416 | 0.122654 | 1.036427 |
| Player win of 8 | 8 | 555,823,197,134,848 | 0.111200 | 0.889602 |
| Player win of 7 | 7 | 408,043,979,470,848 | 0.081635 | 0.571445 |
| Player win of 6 | 6 | 312,658,895,192,064 | 0.062552 | 0.375311 |
| Player win of 5 | 5 | 122,838,277,197,824 | 0.024576 | 0.122878 |
| Player win of 4 | 4 | 86,165,771,096,064 | 0.017239 | 0.068955 |
| Player win of 3 | 3 | 62,946,423,310,336 | 0.012593 | 0.037780 |
| Player win of 2 | 2 | 44,328,525,111,296 | 0.008869 | 0.017737 |
| Player win of 1 | 1 | 24,639,193,538,560 | 0.004929 | 0.004929 |
| Tie | 0 | 475,627,426,473,216 | 0.095156 | 0.000000 |
| Banker win of 1 | -1 | 24,291,119,898,624 | 0.004860 | -0.004860 |
| Banker win of 2 | -2 | 44,681,581,871,104 | 0.008939 | -0.017878 |
| Banker win of 3 | -3 | 72,927,778,568,192 | 0.014590 | -0.043771 |
| Banker win of 4 | -4 | 163,359,790,133,248 | 0.032682 | -0.130730 |
| Banker win of 5 | -5 | 216,715,928,915,968 | 0.043357 | -0.216785 |
| Banker win of 6 | -6 | 269,232,304,455,680 | 0.053864 | -0.323182 |
| Banker win of 7 | -7 | 384,279,324,919,808 | 0.076880 | -0.538163 |
| Banker win of 8 | -8 | 529,914,458,673,152 | 0.106017 | -0.848135 |
| Banker win of 9 | -9 | 586,850,279,002,112 | 0.117408 | -1.056669 |
| Total | 4,998,398,275,503,360 | 1.000000 | -0.055110 |
I was a bit surprised the Player Cow Cow bet seemed to offer the better odds. In fact, here are the average final totals of both sides in baccarat:
- Player: 5.120654
- Banker: 5.108655
Quite interesting, considering the Banker has the better chance of winning. The way I would explain it is the Player side, which must act first, is trying to maximize final points. The Banker side, with positional advantage, is looking only to beat the Player. This is why the Banker will sometimes stand on a 3 and other times hit on a 6.