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Betting Major League Baseball
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Introduction
The page will endeavor to give the recreational baseball bettor advice on the various bets. I have no handicapping skill in baseball whatsoever, so the best I can do is steer you towards the best type of bets. There are three primary ways to bet on baseball, as follows.
- Money line: Bet on which team will win.
- Total: Bet on whether the total number of runs will fall above or below a stated number, usually between 7 and 12.
- Run line: Similar to a bet against the spread in football or basketball. However, in baseball the better team is always favored by 1.5. If the money line indicates neither team is favored, then either team could be the favored team.
Compare Online MLB Odds
Baseball MLB
Next Week
Chicago Cubs
Los Angeles Dodgers
Spread
-120
(1.5)
105
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
Cubs have strong home defense, while Dodgers excel in batting. Expect a close game with potential late-inning drama. Pitching matchups could be crucial. Underdog value on Cubs if odds favor Dodgers.
Spread
-125
(1.5)
110
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
Dodgers have a strong home record. Cubs struggle on the road. Key players for Dodgers: Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Monitor starting pitchers and bullpen performances for betting.
Baseball MLB Preseason
Today
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
Money Line
-160
146
⇗10.00
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Atlanta Braves are favored to win against the Washington Nationals due to their superior offensive stats and recent winning streak. The Nationals have struggled on the mound, with their pitchers allowing a high ERA.
Cleveland Guardians
Seattle Mariners
Money Line
-123
110
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Cleveland Guardians face the Seattle Mariners. Cleveland's strong pitching staff poses a challenge for Seattle's hitters. However, the Mariners' home advantage and consistent batting make it a tight contest.
Miami Marlins
Boston Red Sox
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Considering recent performances, the Miami Marlins may have the edge against the Boston Red Sox. Miami’s strong pitching staff could prove challenging for Boston’s lineup. Boston, however, has been resilient at home.
Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
Money Line
-110
⇗32.00
115
⇗15.00
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Milwaukee Brewers have a solid pitching lineup, which might challenge the San Francisco Giants' batters. The Giants, however, have shown resilience and could leverage their home-field advantage. Consider the Brewers' recent form when assessing betting options.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Detroit Tigers
Money Line
-120
⇗5.00
100
⇗205.00
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
When betting on the MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Detroit Tigers, consider recent team performance, player injuries, and home-field advantage. The Pirates have shown a strong bullpen lately, while the Tigers' offense has had inconsistencies.
Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays
Money Line
-160
145
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Houston Astros face the Toronto Blue Jays in an exciting MLB matchup. The Astros have a strong lineup and formidable pitching. Players like Altuve and Bregman are key. The Blue Jays, featuring Guerrero Jr. and Bichette, boast a powerful offense.
New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The New York Mets face off against the St. Louis Cardinals in a promising MLB matchup. Both teams boast dynamic lineups, but the Mets' pitching staff might hold the upper hand.
New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
Money Line
-130
115
⇗10.00
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Yankees are known for their strong lineup, but the Phillies' recent form shows their resilience. Home advantage could favor the Yankees, yet Phillies' pitching depth may challenge them. Checking both teams' head-to-head stats could provide better insights.
Baseball MLB World Series Winner
Later
Competitor/Team
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Yankees
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
San Diego Padres
Arizona Diamondbacks
Chicago Cubs
Detroit Tigers
Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians
Kansas City Royals
Milwaukee Brewers
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Angels
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
Colorado Rockies
Chicago White Sox
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Baseball NCAA Baseball
Today
Ole Miss Rebels
Arkansas Razorbacks
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Ole Miss Rebels and Arkansas Razorbacks face off in a crucial MLB matchup. Offensively, both teams are strong, but watch for Ole Miss’s aggressive hitting and Arkansas’s strategic pitching. Recent forms suggest Arkansas has an edge.
UCF Knights
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
In the upcoming MLB matchup between the BYU Cougars and the UCF Knights, consider the Cougars' strong offensive lineup, but note the Knights' solid pitching staff. Pay attention to recent player performances and any injuries that could affect the game's outcome.
Michigan Wolverines
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Michigan Wolverines and USC Trojans matchup is highly anticipated. Consider the Wolverines' strong pitching against USC's aggressive batting lineup. Michigan's defense could be crucial, while USC's speed might challenge Wolverines' catchers.
Clemson Tigers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Clemson Tigers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish are set for an intense MLB clash. Clemson's strength lies in their promising pitching rotation, while Notre Dame boasts a formidable batting lineup.
Florida St Seminoles
Boston College Eagles
Money Line
-750
460
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Florida State Seminoles and Boston College Eagles provide a fascinating matchup for MLB fans. While the Seminoles are known for their strong pitching lineup, the Eagles boast a powerful batting order.
NC State Wolfpack
Virginia Tech Hokies
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The NC State Wolfpack faces the Virginia Tech Hokies in a closely contested MLB match. Recent performances suggest the Wolfpack has a slight edge due to a stronger lineup and home-field advantage. However, the Hokies' unpredictable plays could turn the tide.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
UAB Blazers
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The matchup between Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and UAB Blazers shows promise for an intense game. The Blue Raiders, with their strong batting lineup, face UAB's robust pitching staff. Expect a low-scoring game if UAB's pitchers maintain their form.
Georgia Bulldogs
Kentucky Wildcats
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The NCAA MLB matchup between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Kentucky Wildcats promises high-stakes action. The Bulldogs, known for their aggressive play and strong pitching, come into the game as slight favorites.
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Charlotte 49ers
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
UNC Wilmington Seahawks face off against Charlotte 49ers. With a strong pitching lineup and consistent batting, the Seahawks are poised for a strong performance. The 49ers, however, have shown resilience in past match-ups, led by their robust defense.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have shown consistency in home games, offering a solid lineup and robust pitching. Georgia Southern Eagles exhibit strong away performance, particularly with their offensive strategy.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Pittsburgh Panthers
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets face off against the Pittsburgh Panthers in a critical MLB matchup. Georgia Tech's batting lineup has shown consistency, but their bullpen struggles. Pittsburgh's resilience comes from strong pitching and timely hitting.
Tennessee Volunteers
Florida Gators
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Tennessee Volunteers and Florida Gators matchup is an exciting SEC showdown. The Volunteers have a solid offense, but their pitching remains inconsistent. Conversely, Florida's robust pitching staff could exploit this.
South Florida Bulls
Money Line
-105
-120
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The South Florida Bulls face the Maryland Terrapins in an exciting MLB showdown. The Bulls bring tenacity, but the Terrapins have a strong pitching lineup. Betting odds might favor Maryland due to their defensive prowess and home-field advantage.
TCU Horned Frogs
Arizona St Sun Devils
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The TCU Horned Frogs' strong offense might outperform Arizona State Sun Devils, whose pitching could struggle. Look out for TCU's standout hitters who can change the game. Arizona State, however, might capitalize on any defensive lapses by TCU.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Southern Miss Golden Eagles and Old Dominion Monarchs are set for a competitive matchup. Southern Miss has a strong pitching lineup, but Old Dominion's powerful hitters could pose a challenge.
Oklahoma St Cowboys
West Virginia Mountaineers
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Oklahoma State Cowboys are known for strong pitching, crucial against West Virginia Mountaineers' powerful hitting lineup. Recent form favors the Cowboys, boasting better defensive stats.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Oklahoma Sooners
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The South Carolina Gamecocks and Oklahoma Sooners face off in an exciting MLB matchup. South Carolina boasts a strong lineup with key players showing consistent performance. Oklahoma's pitching might be the crucial factor, as their aces can dominate on a good day.
Mississippi St Bulldogs
Texas Longhorns
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Mississippi State Bulldogs face Texas Longhorns in an anticipated MLB match-up. The Bulldogs have shown strong offense throughout the season, while the Longhorns have relied heavily on their pitching crew.
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Troy Trojans
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The upcoming game between the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns and Troy Trojans is set to be a thrilling encounter. The Ragin' Cajuns have shown strong offensive skills, while the Trojans boast a resilient defense.
Texas A&M Aggies
Alabama Crimson Tide
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Texas A&M faces Alabama in a thrilling matchup. Alabama holds a strong track record in recent encounters, making them slight favorites. However, Texas A&M's home advantage and recent performance surge might tip the scales.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Auburn Tigers and Vanderbilt Commodores bring a strong rivalry. Auburn's pitching lineup is solid but can be inconsistent. Vanderbilt has a strong defensive record and efficient offense.
Kansas Jayhawks
Baylor Bears
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Kansas Jayhawks and Baylor Bears matchup could be tight. Kansas's pitching staff shows strength this season, but Baylor's batting lineup is known for its depth. Expect a competitive game with potential late-inning drama.
Kansas St Wildcats
Utah Utes
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Kansas St Wildcats and Utah Utes have both shown strengths in recent games. Wildcats boast a strong offensive lineup, while Utes excel in defense. Consider Kansas State's track record on the road and Utah's home advantage.
Wichita St Shockers
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Wichita St Shockers face the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in an MLB matchup, promising excitement. Wichita's strong offense could dominate, but Louisiana Tech's resilient defense might counter.
Dallas Baptist Patriots
UTSA Roadrunners
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Dallas Baptist Patriots have shown consistency in their recent games, making them slight favorites against the UTSA Roadrunners. Their strong pitching rotation could give them the edge. UTSA needs to rely on their offense to counteract. Look for a competitive game.
Houston Cougars
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Money Line
-130
105
⇗5.00
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
In this matchup, analyze the pitching rotations of both teams, as this will play a significant role. The Houston Cougars have shown a strong defense recently, while the Texas Tech Red Raiders boast a powerful offense.
Tulane Green Wave
Xavier Musketeers
Money Line
-145
115
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Tulane Green Wave and Xavier Musketeers face off in an intriguing matchup. Tulane's strong pitching could be a decisive factor, potentially limiting Xavier's batting offense.
This Week
Miami Hurricanes
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
In the matchup between Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Miami Hurricanes, consider recent form and pitching strength. Wake Forest may have an edge with their strong batting lineup, while Miami looks solid defensively.
UCLA Bruins
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Analyzing the UCLA Bruins vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers matchup, the Bruins' strong offensive lineup could exploit weaknesses in the Cornhuskers' pitching staff. However, Nebraska's resilient defense and home-field advantage can't be underestimated.
Oregon St Beavers
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Oregon State Beavers have a strong pitching rotation, making them favorites against the Grand Canyon Antelopes. The Beavers' solid defense can keep the Antelopes' offense in check.
Arizona Wildcats
Cincinnati Bearcats
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Arizona Wildcats are set to face the Cincinnati Bearcats in an exciting MLB matchup. Watch for Arizona’s strong batting lineup to challenge Cincinnati’s pitching. Key players include Arizona’s leading hitter and Cincinnati’s ace pitcher.
Long Beach State Dirtbags
Cal Poly Mustangs
Money Line
110
⇗5.00
-135
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Long Beach State Dirtbags have demonstrated consistent pitching strength, while Cal Poly Mustangs exhibit a powerful batting lineup. The game may hinge on pitching match-ups and bullpen depth. Consider the weather conditions as they could impact ball flight.
California Golden Bears
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The matchup between the California Golden Bears and the Virginia Cavaliers is expected to be intense. Both teams have strong lineups, with the Cavaliers having a slight edge in pitching depth.
Stanford Cardinal
Duke Blue Devils
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The match-up between Stanford Cardinal and Duke Blue Devils presents an exciting opportunity for bettors. Consider Stanford's strong pitching lineup, which could dominate the game. However, Duke's consistent batting performance can turn the tables.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors face the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos in an intriguing matchup. Consider the Rainbow Warriors' recent away performance and Gauchos' home advantage.
Source of Data
The data this analysis is based on is from the Major League Baseball games played over the 2016 and 2017 seasons. I had to remove two games because of incomplete data. The total number of games this page is based on is 4,929.
Fun Facts
The following table shows the average number of runs, hits, errors.
MLB Averages 2016-2017
| Item | Away | Home | Total1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Runs | 4.47 | 4.64 | 9.10 |
| Hits | 8.71 | 8.64 | 17.34 |
| Errors | 0.58 | 0.58 | 1.16 |
| Total | 13.76 | 13.87 | 27.61 |
Notes
1. Totals may not appear to agree with sum of the parts, due to rounding.
Money Line Bets
When it comes to betting money lines in baseball, or any sports bet for that matter, what is number of basis points, or "cents" between the lines of the two teams. For example, a 10-cent set of lines would be +120/-130 or +105/+105. Following is the theoretical house edge by number of cents in the lines, assuming the probability of each team winning is close to 50%.
- 10 cents: 2.38%
- 15 cents: 3.49%
- 20 cents: 4.55%
As of this writing (Sept. 20, 2018) here are which sports book groups offer which sets of money line bets in baseball.
- 10-cent lines: Westgate, William Hill, South Point, Stations, CG Technology, Golden Nugget, Jerry's Nugget, Boyd
- 15-cent lines: Stratosphere, Caesars, Wynn
- 20-cent lines: MGM/Mirage, Treasure Island
Home or Road Teams
I show money line bets on road teams perform slightly better than home teams. Here are the expected return for both:
- Road teams: 98.30%
- Home teams: 97.99%
I do not think this 0.3% difference is statistically significant.
Favorite or Underdog
Following is the expected return for both underdogs and favorites against a 10-cent line:
- Underdogs: 98.49%
- Favorites: 97.79%
Not surprisingly, the underdogs did better. This seems to be true in every American sport.
Ohio Recommended Online Sports Books
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50 % up to
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25 % up to
500$
125 % up to
2500$
75 % up to
750$
Over/Under Bets
The following table shows the number of times the total runs was over, under, and exactly on the over/under line. The return column shows the house edge, assuming a 20-cent line. Note that the house edge is 2.25% less on Under bets.
Over/Under Bets in MLB
| Outcome | Number | Probability | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 2315 | 46.97% | 5.45% |
| Under | 2373 | 48.14% | 3.20% |
| Push | 241 | 4.89% | |
| Total | 4929 | 100.00% |
Run Line Bets
Based on sets of 20-cent lines, I show the following expected returns:
- Underdog +1.5: 96.34%
- Favorite -1.5: 96.90%
I must say I'm surprised to see favorites outperform underdogs on the run line. This is not the case in the NHL on the puck line. The difference is fairly small at 0.64% so I would not trust the favorite side to continue to do better.
Internal Links
- Obscure Topics in Betting Major League Baseball — These are some tables I didn't bother to update when I updated this page with new data. Use the tables in this page, based on data from 2000 to 2009, with a grain of salt.
- Betting the NFL In-depth look at betting professional football.
- Betting the NBA In-depth look at betting professional basketball.
- Appendix 1 Comparative study on who has the best lines in Vegas.
- Appendix 2 Various topics in sports betting.
- Appendix 3 List of Las Vegas sports book families.
- Appendix 4 Fair prices to buy and sell points in the NFL.
- Appendix 5 Explores sports futures in greater depth.
- Appendix 6 Lost and expired tickets.
- Appendix 7 Companion to appendix 1, showing NFL money line pairs from several Internet sportbooks.
- Appendix 8 Comparitive study on who has the best lines offshore.
- Appendix 9 Companion to appendix 8, showing NFL money line pairs from offshore sportbooks.
- NFL Teasers.
- Total number of kickoffs in Super Bowl 43. Were there 9 or 10?
- Vegas sports book comparison at WizardOfVegas.com. Who offers what odds on parlays and teasers, as well as rebate percentages.