Reason #5 why the Wizard likes Bovada:

Intelligent Bonuses

Many online casinos offer huge signup bonuses, but there’s a catch. Buried in the fine print is that play on the most popular games doesn’t count towards earning the bonus. It’s common for play on blackjack, baccarat, roulette, craps, and video poker to be excluded. In many cases, only slots count.

And that’s if you can even find the terms and conditions. Many casinos put their 100% bonus in big flaming letters but make you hunt all over their site to find the rules.

Bovada allows play on all games to count towards the wagering requirement. It’s that simple. Just no opposite betting. All casinos ought to be as easy as Bovada about this. The bonus offer itself is simple too: on your first deposit, they’ll give you an extra 10%. If you deposit $100, you’ll wind up with $110 in chips or tokens.

Finally, in the unlikely event that Bovada feels you’ve been abusing their bonuses they won’t seize your winnings like most other casinos will. In the worst case scenario they will politely tell you that they will not be offering you any future bonuses, but you are welcome to keep playing and keep everything you have made already.

More about Bovada

Visit Bovada

Betting the NFL

Last Update: Oct. 27, 2011

Introduction

This page assumes the reader already has a good grasp of sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, I recommend reading my general page on sports betting first.

Point Spread Bets

I admit "point spread bet" is not a common term in sports betting, but I'm trying to change that. What I call a point spread bet is a basic bet against the point spread. Many people call this a "straight bet" but this term can also be used, and is printed on tickets for, money liney bets, total bets, and any other bet involving just one game. So I invite the rest of the world to adopt this term.

In the NFL home underdogs have historically done well against the spread. The following table shows the probability of winning, losing, and pushing according by various breakdowns. The table covers every game from the 1983 to 2008 seasons. The expected return is for the standard laying 11 to win 10. The expected return when laying 105 to win 100 is about 2.2% more than when laying 11 to win 10.

Expected Return against Point Spread in the NFL
Event	Win	Lose	Push	Exp. Ret. (-110)
All favorite	47.19%	50.05%	2.76%	-7.15%
All underdogs	50.05%	47.19%	2.76%	-1.69%
All visiting	48.71%	48.57%	2.72%	-4.29%
All home	48.57%	48.71%	2.72%	-4.56%
Home favorite	47.56%	49.75%	2.70%	-6.51%
Visiting underdog	49.75%	47.56%	2.70%	-2.33%
Home underdog	50.70%	46.39%	2.91%	-0.30%
Visiting favorite	46.39%	50.7%	2.91%	-8.53%

For more on betting home underdogs I recommend Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. Also visit my sports betting appendix 2.

Total Bets

Following are the result of every NFL game from the 1983 to 2008 seasons:

Over wins: 48.00%
Under wins: 49.52%
Game ends exactly on total: 2.49%

Overall the house edge on over bets is 5.89% and on unders is 2.98%, assuming the bettor risks $11 to win $10.

Money Lines

I often find what I believe to be a good bet on an underdog on the money line. The following chart shows the probability of winning by point spread, based on historical data (from 2000 to 2010).

The following table shows the actual data. The estimated probability of winning is based on smoothing out the ups and downs. The fair money line is based on the estimated probability of winning. This table does not factor in "key numbers" in the NFL. In other words, some margin of victories are much more likely than others, especially 3 and 7. It is a much bigger handicap to be given 3.5 points compared to 2.5, thus the 3.5-point underdog is going to have a significantly lower chance of winning compared to a 2.5-point underdog. I'll leave adjustment to the reader (sorry).

To find the fair money line on a favorite, just multiply by -1. For example, a 7-point underdog shows an estimated probability of winning of 28.9%, which corresponds to a fair money line of +246. Thus, a 7-point favorite would have a 71.1% chance of winning, for a fair money line of -246.

Probability of Winning in the NFL by Point Spread
Spread	Wins	Loses	Actual Probability	Estimated Probability	Fair Money Line
0	35	70	50.0%	50.0%	100
1	52	102	51.0%	46.8%	114
1.5	42	96	43.8%	45.2%	121
2	47	88	53.4%	43.6%	129
2.5	66	144	45.8%	42.0%	138
3	245	592	41.4%	40.5%	147
3.5	88	251	35.1%	38.9%	157
4	29	115	25.2%	37.4%	167
4.5	32	87	36.8%	35.9%	179
5	31	82	37.8%	34.4%	190
5.5	37	111	33.3%	33.0%	203
6	49	147	33.3%	31.6%	217
6.5	45	156	28.8%	30.2%	231
7	58	196	29.6%	28.9%	246
7.5	30	90	33.3%	27.6%	263
8	10	62	16.1%	26.3%	280
8.5	10	55	18.2%	25.1%	299
9	18	81	22.2%	23.9%	319
9.5	16	76	21.1%	22.7%	340
10	15	69	21.7%	21.6%	363
10.5	16	64	25.0%	20.5%	387
11	3	30	10.0%	19.5%	413
11.5	2	11	18.2%	18.5%	440
12	3	12	25.0%	17.6%	469
12.5	5	20	25.0%	16.7%	501
13	4	27	14.8%	15.8%	534
13.5	9	37	24.3%	14.9%	569
14	5	27	18.5%	14.1%	607
14.5	2	14	14.3%	13.4%	648
15	0	5	0.0%	12.6%	691
15.5	0	6	0.0%	12.0%	737
16	0	8	0.0%	11.3%	786
16.5	0	8	0.0%	10.7%	838
17	0	3	0.0%	10.1%	894
17.5	0	0	0.0%	9.5%	953
18	0	2	0.0%	9.0%	1,017
18.5	0	1	0.0%	8.4%	1,084
19	0	0	0.0%	8.0%	1,156
19.5	0	2	0.0%	7.5%	1,233
20	0	1	0.0%	7.1%	1,315
20.5	0	0	0.0%	6.7%	1,403
21	0	1	0.0%	6.3%	1,496
21.5	0	0	0.0%	5.9%	1,596
22	0	1	0.0%	5.5%	1,702
22.5	0	0	0.0%	5.2%	1,815
23	0	0	0.0%	4.9%	1,936
23.5	0	0	0.0%	4.6%	2,065
24	0	1	0.0%	4.3%	2,202

Parlays

I address parlays in main page on sports betting.

Teasers

For the random picker, teasers are a lousy bet. To argue this point, consider the NFL teaser pay table at all MGM-Mirage properties.

Picks	6 Points	6.5 Points	7 Points
MGM-Mirage NFL Teaser Pay Table
2	10 to 12	10 to 13	5 to 7
3	8 to 5	7 to 5	6 to 5
4	5 to 2	2 to 1	9 to 5
5	4 to 1	7 to 2	3 to 1
6	6 to 1	5 to 1	4 to 1

The next table shows the probability of covering a single pick in a teaser, based on every game from the 1983 to 2008 NFL seasons.

Points	Sides	Totals
Teaser Probabilities
6	68.44%	67.28%
6.5	69.88%	68.71%
7	71.40%	70.15%

Applying the pay table and probabilities above, the following table shows the expected return according to number of picks and number of points for teasers with all sides.

Picks	6 Points	6.5 Points	7 Points
Expected Return for MGM-Mirage Teasers — Sides
2	-14.13%	-13.60%	-12.61%
3	-16.66%	-18.10%	-19.93%
4	-23.23%	-28.46%	-27.24%
5	-24.94%	-25.01%	-25.79%
6	-28.08%	-30.13%	-33.77%

The next table shows the same thing, but for teasing totals.

Picks	6 Points	6.5 Points	7 Points
Expected Return for MGM-Mirage Teasers — Totals
2	-17.01%	-16.47%	-15.64%
3	-20.81%	-22.15%	-24.05%
4	-28.28%	-33.13%	-32.19%
5	-31.07%	-31.08%	-32.05%
6	-35.07%	-36.86%	-40.41%

The bottom line is that for random pickers, teasers are horrible bets. However, if you must bet teasers randomly, picking sides is better than totals. The lowest house edge is on the 2-team 7-point teaser at 12.61%. You should also shop around, because some casinos offer a slightly better pay table than that of MGM-Mirage.

Knowledgeable sports betters can gain a small advantage on teasers by betting at the casinos with a liberal pay table, and crossing the 3 and the 7 point margin of victories. These are known as "Wong teasers." For more on this advantage play, I recommend Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong.

For much more about teasers, please see my page on NFL teasers.

Buying Half a Point

Sometimes a sports book will let you buy a half point off the spread for total. For example, moving a point spread from +10 to +10.5. The price for this is laying an extra cents, in most cases laying 120 instead of 110. However, rarely will a sports book let the player buy onto point spreads of 3 or 7, for example moving from +2.5 to +3, because 3 and 7 are frequent margin of victories in the NFL. To be specific, the margin of victory is three 15.9% of the time, and seven 9.5%.

The following table shows the fair price to pay for most spreads and totals. For example, moving the spread from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5, -3.5 to -3, or -3 to -2.5, would be buying the 3. In these cases if the favorite won by 3, or the underdog lost by 3, then it would turn a push into a win, or a loss into a push. The table shows the fair price to pay for the 3 is 20.8 cents. In other words, the bettor should be indifferent between betting +3 -110 and +3.5 at -130.8.

Spread	Fair Price
Buying a Half Point Off the Spread
0	0.2
1	4.3
2	4.2
3	20.8
4	5.7
5	3.5
6	6.3
7	11.9
8	3.8
9	2.2
10	7.5
11	3.5
12	1.8
13	4.3
14	5.7
15	1.6
16	1.8
17	4.6
18	2.7
19	1.5
20	3.0
21	3.8

The next table shows the fair prices to pay on NFL total bets. Like point spreads, there are key numbers in totals. For example, 37 and 41 points are the two most common totals at 4.4% each. However, the key number effect is not as strong in totals as point spreads, so there is not as much variance in the fair prices.

Total	Fair Price
Buying a Half Point Off the Total
31	5.4
32	3.1
33	7.5
34	6.4
35	4.1
36	4.4
37	10.6
38	5.8
39	3.5
40	8.0
41	10.6
42	2.7
43	7.0
44	8.5
45	6.2
46	3.3
47	7.0
48	6.5
49	3.8
50	4.2
51	8.6
52	4.2
53	3.5
54	4.1
55	6.1
56	1.2
57	3.8
58	3.8
59	3.3
60	0.9
61	3.0
62	2.6
63	1.5

Betting MLB In-depth look at betting professional baseball.
Betting the NBA In-depth look at betting professional basketball.
Appendix 1 Comparative study on who has the best lines in Vegas.
Appendix 2 Various topics in sports betting.
Appendix 3 List of Las Vegas sports book families.
Appendix 4 Fair prices to buy and sell points in the NFL.
Appendix 5 Explores sports futures in greater depth.
Appendix 6 Lost and expired tickets.
Appendix 7 Companion to appendix 1, showing NFL money line pairs from several Internet sportbooks.
Appendix 8 Comparitive study on who has the best lines offshore.
Appendix 9 Companion to appendix 8, showing NFL money line pairs from offshore sportbooks.
Appendix 10 NFL teasers.
Total number of kickoffs in Super Bowl 43. Were there 9 or 10?
Vegas sports book comparison at WizardOfVegas.com. Who offers what odds on parlays and teasers, as well as rebate percentages.