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Betting Major League Baseball
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Introduction
The page will endeavor to give the recreational baseball bettor advice on the various bets. I have no handicapping skill in baseball whatsoever, so the best I can do is steer you towards the best type of bets. There are three primary ways to bet on baseball, as follows.
- Money line: Bet on which team will win.
- Total: Bet on whether the total number of runs will fall above or below a stated number, usually between 7 and 12.
- Run line: Similar to a bet against the spread in football or basketball. However, in baseball the better team is always favored by 1.5. If the money line indicates neither team is favored, then either team could be the favored team.
Compare Online MLB Odds
Baseball MLB
Today
Boston Red Sox
St. Louis Cardinals
Spread
170
(-1.5)
-195
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Boston Red Sox are facing the St. Louis Cardinals. Key factors include Red Sox's home-field advantage and Cardinals' recent performance streak. Watch for Boston's hitters versus Cardinals' pitching as a decisive element.
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
Money Line
-149
⇗1.00
135
⇗1.00
Spread
142
(-1.5)
-155
(1.5)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
The Atlanta Braves lead the division and boast a strong offense, headlined by their power hitters. Miami Marlins struggle with consistency but can surprise on a good day. Atlanta's pitchers are in form, giving them an edge.
Washington Nationals
Arizona Diamondbacks
Spread
-114
(1.5)
⇗4.00
-102
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks clash in a promising MLB showdown. Nationals' recent form boasts strong batting, while Diamondbacks need to improve pitching. Key players like Juan Soto and Ketel Marte will be decisive.
Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Money Line
120
⇗2.00
-132
⇗3.00
Spread
-140
(1.5)
135
(-1.5)
⇗10.00
Featured Insight
The Philadelphia Phillies face the Los Angeles Dodgers in a thrilling MLB matchup. Watch for the Phillies' resilient offense driven by top hitters. However, the Dodgers' stacked lineup and solid pitching give them a slight edge.
Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees
Money Line
156
⇗2.00
-172
⇗6.00
Spread
100
(1.5)
-110
(-1.5)
⇗2.00
Featured Insight
The Yankees come in as favorites, boasting a stronger lineup and more reliable pitching. The Pirates struggle on the road, and New York's home advantage might play a key role.
New York Mets
Toronto Blue Jays
Spread
165
(-1.5)
⇗10.00
-185
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The New York Mets and the Toronto Blue Jays have a competitive matchup. Mets' strong pitching lineup faces off against the Blue Jays' powerful batting. Consider the Mets' recent form and pitchers' performance.
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
Spread
105
(-1.5)
-112
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox promises to be competitive. The Tigers’ lineup is potent, but the White Sox have a strong home record. Both teams show inconsistent pitching, which may lead to a high-scoring game.
Kansas City Royals
Baltimore Orioles
Spread
-170
(1.5)
150
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
Baltimore Orioles are the favorites against Kansas City Royals given their strong lineup and home advantage. The Royals struggle offensively, impacting their odds negatively. Consider betting on the Orioles to lead early in the game.
Milwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati Reds
Spread
154
(-1.5)
⇗1.00
-155
(1.5)
⇗11.00
Featured Insight
The Milwaukee Brewers face off against the Cincinnati Reds in an exciting MLB matchup. Consider key players like Christian Yelich and Joey Votto. The Brewers' strong pitching could be a deciding factor, while the Reds' home-field advantage might play a role.
Minnesota Twins
Houston Astros
Spread
170
(-1.5)
-190
(1.5)
⇗350.00
Featured Insight
The Twins vs. Astros matchup sees Houston favored due to their strong roster and recent performance. Minnesota's pitching could face challenges against Houston's powerful lineup. Consider betting on Houston, but watch for potential underdog value on Minnesota.
Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres
Money Line
-132
⇗1.00
120
⇗1.00
Spread
160
(-1.5)
-180
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Chicago Cubs face off against the San Diego Padres in an exciting MLB matchup. The Cubs have shown consistent performance but struggle on the road, while the Padres have a strong home record.
Texas Rangers
Tampa Bay Rays
Money Line
-105
-104
⇗1.00
Spread
195
(-1.5)
155
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays game is expected to be a close matchup. Both teams have strong offensive lineups, but Tampa Bay holds a slight edge with a more consistent bullpen. Betting on total runs over could be favorable given recent high-scoring games.
Colorado Rockies
Oakland Athletics
Money Line
-112
⇗10.00
103
⇗210.00
Spread
175
(-1.5)
⇗335.00
150
(-1.5)
⇗10.00
Featured Insight
The Colorado Rockies and Oakland Athletics both face challenges with subpar seasons. The Rockies, struggling with pitching, could face issues against the Athletics’ occasional power hitting.
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
Spread
175
(-1.5)
-198
(1.5)
⇗7.00
Featured Insight
The San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners have strong pitching staff, making a low-scoring game likely. Giants' inconsistent offense could struggle against Mariners' reliable starters. However, Giants’ bullpen depth might give them an edge in close games.
Los Angeles Angels
Cleveland Guardians
Spread
-155
(1.5)
140
(-1.5)
⇗5.00
Featured Insight
In the matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and the Cleveland Guardians, consider the Angels' strong offense and Mike Trout’s impact. The Guardians are consistent but may struggle against left-handed pitchers. Monitor pitching matchups and recent form.
Featured Insight
The Boston Red Sox face the St. Louis Cardinals in MLB action. With strong offensive capabilities, the Red Sox are favored, especially given their home-field advantage. However, the Cardinals possess a resilient lineup capable of surprising upsets.
Baseball MLB World Series Winner
Later
Competitor/Team
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Yankees
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
New York Mets
Baltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
Boston Red Sox
San Diego Padres
Seattle Mariners
Chicago Cubs
Arizona Diamondbacks
Minnesota Twins
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers
Toronto Blue Jays
Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Angels
Oakland Athletics
Washington Nationals
Miami Marlins
Colorado Rockies
Chicago White Sox
Quote
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800
1000
1300
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1800
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2000
2200
2500
2500
3300
3500
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12000
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Baseball NCAA Baseball
Today
Florida Gators
Vanderbilt Commodores
Spread
130
(-1.5)
-165
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Florida Gators are strong contenders with a powerful lineup, showing consistency throughout the season. Vanderbilt's defense is solid but has struggled against high-powered offenses.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Virginia Tech Hokies
Spread
-115
(1.5)
-115
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish face off against the Virginia Tech Hokies in a crucial MLB matchup. Both teams have shown consistent performance this season, but the Irish have a slight edge with a stronger pitching lineup.
Troy Trojans
Spread
115
(1.5)
-145
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Old Dominion Monarchs and Troy Trojans face off in a crucial NCAA baseball match. The Monarchs have shown strong offensive play, but the Trojans' pitching staff has been formidable this season.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Spread
-135
(-1.5)
105
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Nebraska Cornhuskers and Rutgers Scarlet Knights matchup could be an intriguing baseball contest. Consider the Cornhuskers' batting strength, while the Scarlet Knights' defense might hold the key. Monitor player performances closely.
UCF Knights
Kansas Jayhawks
Spread
110
(-1.5)
-140
(1.5)
Featured Insight
In the upcoming MLB game between UCF Knights and Kansas Jayhawks, focus on UCF's strong batting lineup and Kansas's pitching strengths. UCF's recent winning streak may influence betting odds, while Kansas has solid home game performances.
Florida St Seminoles
Spread
-115
(-1.5)
-115
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Florida State Seminoles and Wake Forest Demon Deacons face off in college baseball. The Seminoles have a strong pitching lineup, while the Demon Deacons boast a powerful offense. Key players include Seminoles' standout pitcher and Demon Deacons' top hitter.
Creighton Bluejays
UConn Huskies
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The matchup between Creighton Bluejays and UConn Huskies is set to be competitive. Creighton has shown consistent performance, but playing against UConn at home can be challenging. UConn’s home advantage and strong defensive plays might tip the game in their favor.
Charlotte 49ers
Wichita St Shockers
Spread
-130
(-1.5)
100
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Charlotte 49ers face a tough challenge against Wichita St. Shockers, known for their strong defensive gameplay and aggressive approach. Bettors should consider Wichita's home advantage and recent form.
East Carolina Pirates
Florida Atlantic Owls
Spread
-110
(-1.5)
-120
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The East Carolina Pirates face off against the Florida Atlantic Owls. Key players to watch include East Carolina’s batting lineup and Florida Atlantic’s pitching strengths.
Baylor Bears
Houston Cougars
Spread
100
(-1.5)
-130
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Baylor Bears are heading into their matchup against the Houston Cougars with a strong offensive lineup. Houston's defense, however, has been reliable this season. Key players to watch include Baylor's standout hitter and Houston's star pitcher.
Texas Longhorns
Georgia Bulldogs
Spread
-135
(1.5)
105
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
Texas Longhorns and Georgia Bulldogs have been strong in their respective conferences. Key players to watch include Longhorns' top hitter and Bulldogs' ace pitcher.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Spread
-140
(1.5)
110
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
Minnesota Golden Gophers are facing a challenge against Penn State Nittany Lions. Minnesota's offense is inconsistent, while Penn State shows strong defensive metrics. Betting insights favor Penn State due to their home advantage and recent form.
Mississippi St Bulldogs
South Carolina Gamecocks
Spread
-115
(-1.5)
-115
(1.5)
Featured Insight
Mississippi State Bulldogs and South Carolina Gamecocks face a tight matchup. Mississippi's recent form shows they struggle defensively. South Carolina's strength lies in its consistent batting lineup, making them slight favorites.
Washington Huskies
Purdue Boilermakers
Spread
-145
(1.5)
⇗5.00
110
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
Washington Huskies and Purdue Boilermakers are teams with varying strengths in MLB. While Washington might have a stronger batting lineup, Purdue often boasts a more reliable pitching staff.
Dallas Baptist Patriots
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Spread
-105
(-1.5)
-125
(1.5)
Featured Insight
Dallas Baptist Patriots have a potent offense, with a strong track record in home games. Their pitching might struggle against the Hilltoppers' aggressive lineup.
Oregon St Beavers
UC Irvine Anteaters
Spread
120
(-1.5)
-155
(1.5)
Featured Insight
Oregon State Beavers vs. UC Irvine Anteaters promises an exciting game. The Beavers have shown strong pitching, while the Anteaters' offense has been dynamic. Key players like the Beavers' ace pitcher and Anteaters' top slugger could be decisive.
NC State Wolfpack
Spread
105
(-1.5)
-135
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The NC State Wolfpack faces the Virginia Cavaliers in MLB. Monitor player form and recent team performances. Key insights: NC State’s pitching can disrupt Virginia, while Virginia boasts a solid offensive lineup.
UNLV Rebels
Nevada Wolf Pack
Spread
-135
(1.5)
105
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The UNLV Rebels vs. Nevada Wolf Pack game often showcases intense rivalry. The Rebels have shown strong offensive strategies recently, but the Wolf Pack's defense could counteract. Betting trends suggest looking at current form and head-to-head stats.
CSU Northridge Matadors
CSU Fullerton Titans
Spread
-135
(1.5)
105
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
For the CSU Northridge Matadors vs. CSU Fullerton Titans matchup, consider Fullerton's strong pitching and recent form, giving them an edge. Northridge's offense can be unpredictable but has potential.
Cal Poly Mustangs
UC San Diego Tritons
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
Cal Poly Mustangs and UC San Diego Tritons face-off in an intriguing match-up. Cal Poly often excels at home, with a strong pitching rotation, while SD Tritons' dynamic offense could turn the tide.
California Golden Bears
Clemson Tigers
Spread
-125
(1.5)
-105
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The California Golden Bears face the Clemson Tigers in a tight matchup. Consider the Bears' recent strong performances and Clemson's home advantage. Betting odds are close, reflecting the competitive nature of both teams this season.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Spread
-115
(-3.5)
-115
(3.5)
Featured Insight
The USC Trojans face the Ohio State Buckeyes in a thrilling MLB matchup. With both teams displaying impressive form, betting on the total runs could be advantageous. Consider Ohio State's strong offensive lineup against USC's resilient defense.
UCLA Bruins
San Diego Toreros
Spread
-130
(-4.5)
100
(4.5)
Featured Insight
UCLA Bruins have shown consistent pitching strength, making them favorites in this matchup against the San Diego Toreros. The Toreros, however, bring a strong batting lineup capable of overcoming tough defenses.
Stanford Cardinal
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Spread
-120
(1.5)
-110
(-1.5)
Featured Insight
The Stanford Cardinal face the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in an exciting MLB matchup. Stanford’s strong pitching staff will be tested by Georgia Tech's powerful hitters. Keep an eye on Stanford’s ace pitcher, as the game could hinge on his performance.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
UC Davis Aggies
Money Line
Spread
Total
Featured Insight
The UC Santa Barbara Gauchos have a strong offensive lineup, making them the favorites against the UC Davis Aggies. UC Davis pitchers must leverage their bullpen depth to counter Gauchos' hitters.
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Long Beach State Dirtbags
Spread
-105
(-2.5)
-125
(2.5)
Featured Insight
The upcoming MLB game between the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors and the Long Beach State Dirtbags is expected to be competitive. Hawai'i's strong batting lineup might have the upper hand, but Long Beach State's resilient pitching staff could make it a close contest.
Next Week
Arizona St Sun Devils
Arizona Wildcats
Spread
105
(-1.5)
-135
(1.5)
Featured Insight
The Arizona Wildcats have shown strong performance at home and have a slight edge in overall team depth. The Arizona State Sun Devils boast a potent offense but struggle defensively. Betting on a high-scoring game could be advantageous.
Source of Data
The data this analysis is based on is from the Major League Baseball games played over the 2016 and 2017 seasons. I had to remove two games because of incomplete data. The total number of games this page is based on is 4,929.
Fun Facts
The following table shows the average number of runs, hits, errors.
MLB Averages 2016-2017
| Item | Away | Home | Total1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Runs | 4.47 | 4.64 | 9.10 |
| Hits | 8.71 | 8.64 | 17.34 |
| Errors | 0.58 | 0.58 | 1.16 |
| Total | 13.76 | 13.87 | 27.61 |
Notes
1. Totals may not appear to agree with sum of the parts, due to rounding.
Money Line Bets
When it comes to betting money lines in baseball, or any sports bet for that matter, what is number of basis points, or "cents" between the lines of the two teams. For example, a 10-cent set of lines would be +120/-130 or +105/+105. Following is the theoretical house edge by number of cents in the lines, assuming the probability of each team winning is close to 50%.
- 10 cents: 2.38%
- 15 cents: 3.49%
- 20 cents: 4.55%
As of this writing (Sept. 20, 2018) here are which sports book groups offer which sets of money line bets in baseball.
- 10-cent lines: Westgate, William Hill, South Point, Stations, CG Technology, Golden Nugget, Jerry's Nugget, Boyd
- 15-cent lines: Stratosphere, Caesars, Wynn
- 20-cent lines: MGM/Mirage, Treasure Island
Home or Road Teams
I show money line bets on road teams perform slightly better than home teams. Here are the expected return for both:
- Road teams: 98.30%
- Home teams: 97.99%
I do not think this 0.3% difference is statistically significant.
Favorite or Underdog
Following is the expected return for both underdogs and favorites against a 10-cent line:
- Underdogs: 98.49%
- Favorites: 97.79%
Not surprisingly, the underdogs did better. This seems to be true in every American sport.
United States Recommended Online Sports Books
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50 % up to
1000$
25 % up to
500$
125 % up to
2500$
75 % up to
750$
Over/Under Bets
The following table shows the number of times the total runs was over, under, and exactly on the over/under line. The return column shows the house edge, assuming a 20-cent line. Note that the house edge is 2.25% less on Under bets.
Over/Under Bets in MLB
| Outcome | Number | Probability | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 2315 | 46.97% | 5.45% |
| Under | 2373 | 48.14% | 3.20% |
| Push | 241 | 4.89% | |
| Total | 4929 | 100.00% |
Run Line Bets
Based on sets of 20-cent lines, I show the following expected returns:
- Underdog +1.5: 96.34%
- Favorite -1.5: 96.90%
I must say I'm surprised to see favorites outperform underdogs on the run line. This is not the case in the NHL on the puck line. The difference is fairly small at 0.64% so I would not trust the favorite side to continue to do better.
Internal Links
- Obscure Topics in Betting Major League Baseball — These are some tables I didn't bother to update when I updated this page with new data. Use the tables in this page, based on data from 2000 to 2009, with a grain of salt.
- Betting the NFL In-depth look at betting professional football.
- Betting the NBA In-depth look at betting professional basketball.
- Appendix 1 Comparative study on who has the best lines in Vegas.
- Appendix 2 Various topics in sports betting.
- Appendix 3 List of Las Vegas sports book families.
- Appendix 4 Fair prices to buy and sell points in the NFL.
- Appendix 5 Explores sports futures in greater depth.
- Appendix 6 Lost and expired tickets.
- Appendix 7 Companion to appendix 1, showing NFL money line pairs from several Internet sportbooks.
- Appendix 8 Comparitive study on who has the best lines offshore.
- Appendix 9 Companion to appendix 8, showing NFL money line pairs from offshore sportbooks.
- NFL Teasers.
- Total number of kickoffs in Super Bowl 43. Were there 9 or 10?
- Vegas sports book comparison at WizardOfVegas.com. Who offers what odds on parlays and teasers, as well as rebate percentages.