Est. 1997 | Last Update: 20 Jul, 2008


Get the Wizard's free newsletter!

Monthly, 100% spam-free

 

.g    Sports Betting Appendix 4

Last Update: February 11, 2006



Introduction

Teasers are similar to parlays except the point spread on each game moves 6, 6.5, or 7 points in the player's favor. The player pays for this in the form of much lower winnings. For example assume Baltimore is an 8 point favorite over San Francisco. If you tease Baltimore on a 6-point teaser they will only have to beat San Francisco by more than 2 points. In the event of a tie teasers "redude", meaning it is as if the player never picked that game. For example if the player makes a 5-team teaser and wins 4 and ties 1 he will be paid based on a win for a 4-team teaser. However with a two-team teaser a win and a tie, or two ties, will result in a push. The player may also tease the over/under on the total, which historically speaking is harder to win than teasing a specific team.

The following table shows the probability of winning each pick according to the number of points and whether you are teasing a team or total. All tables are based on teasing both sides of every game in the five NFL football seasons from 2000 to 2005. Ties were ignorred.

Teaser Probability of Winning per Pick
Points Team Total
668.95%66.83%
6.570.23%68.50%
771.70%70.01%

The following tables show the payoff and house edge according to the number of teaser points and number of games. Note the variation in payoffs. The most liberal teaser odds in Vegas can be found at the Coast casinos, and online at Millennium Sports. Only Millennium offers the even money 6-point 2-teamer and the -110 6.5-point 2-teamer.

6 Point Teasers

Two Team 6-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
-12012.85%18.12%
-1109.25%14.74%
Ev4.92%10.68%

Three Team 6-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
16014.78%22.4%
17011.5%19.42%
1808.23%16.43%

Four Team 6-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
25020.91%30.19%
3009.61%20.22%

Five Team 6-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
40022.09%33.36%
45014.3%26.69%

Six Team 6-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
60024.8%37.65%
70014.06%28.74%

6.5 Point Teasers

Two Team 6.5-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
-1105.85%10.41%
-1209.58%13.97%
-13012.74%16.98%

Three Team 6.5-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
14016.88%22.85%
15013.41%19.64%
1609.95%16.42%

Four Team 6.5-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
20027.03%33.94%
25014.87%22.93%

Five Team 6.5-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
35023.13%32.12%
40014.59%24.58%

Six Team 6.5-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
50028.03%38%
60016.03%27.67%

7 Point Teasers

Two Team 7-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
-1309.05%13.29%
-14011.87%15.98%

Three Team 7-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
12018.91%24.52%
14011.54%17.66%
1507.85%14.23%

Four Team 7-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
18026%32.75%
20020.71%27.94%

Five Team 7-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
30024.2%32.74%
35014.73%24.33%

Six Team 7-Point Teasers
Pays Team Total
45025.27%35.26%
50018.48%29.37%

The bottom line on the above tables is that teasers on average are a sucker bet. In his book Sharp Sports Betting Stanford Wong discusses what have become known as "Wong Teasers", in which the player crosses the frequent 3 and 7 point margins of victory. For example moving a point spread from 2 to 8, or -8 to -2. My own book, Gambling 102 also discusses the player advantage of Wong Teasers. I have to give you some reason to buy it!

If you see any exotic teasers, such as the Stardust ties win teasers I suggest you avoid them. My analysis of the Stardust ties win teaser shows them to carry a house edge of 19% to 51%, depending on the number of picks.

Other Teasers

The Stardust offers a 5-point teaser where ties win. In addition they move point spreads ending with a half by a half point, so every game has the potential to end in a tie. The probability of any random pick winning is 67.1%, based on the 93 through 2000 NFL seasons. Other casinos that offer the same teaser bets as the Stardust are Sam's Town, California, Fremont, Eldorado, and Jokers Wild.

©1998-2008 Wizard Of Odds Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.   Terms & Conditions   Contact   Advertise   About Us   Links