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Wizard of Odds on Buying and Selling Points in the NFL
Introduction
This page shows the fair price to buy or sell up to 1.5 points in the NFL, off of both the spread and the total. One practical use for this is when the sports book lets you change the point by up to 1.5 points. Of course, you'll have to lay more if buying points, and get more if selling them. Pinnacle sports book is a good example. You need to log in to do it, but they have a sliding toolbar for the adjusted prices when buying and selling up to 1.5 points. Another practical application is deciding what is the better of two lines. For example, +3 at even money, or +3.5 and -120.
The following table shows the fair price you should have to pay for buying and selling up to 1.5 points according to the fair point spread. For example, if a bet is fair at -10 even money, then it would also be fair at -11.5 at +122, -11 at +116, -10.5 at +109, -9.5 at -109, -9 at -111, and -8.5 at -113. It also answers the question posed above, that +3 even money is an equally good bet as +3.5 at -120. It also shows that it is worth paying 10 points for a half point of a point spread off or onto a spread of 7 (for example going from -7.5 to -7, -7 to -6.5, +6.5 to +7, and +7 to +7.5). So if you are going to lay 110 off of a 7 point spread anyway, it is slightly better to lay 120 for the half point, something many sports books allow.
Buying and Selling Points off of the Spread
| Spread | Sell 1.5 | Sell 1.0 | Sell 0.5 | Buy 0.5 | Buy 1.0 | Buy 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -14 | 117 | 114 | 111 | -111 | -116 | -121 |
| -13.5 | 127 | 123 | 112 | -105 | -109 | -111 |
| -13 | 129 | 117 | 105 | -105 | -106 | -108 |
| -12.5 | 122 | 109 | 105 | -102 | -103 | -110 |
| -12 | 111 | 106 | 102 | -102 | -108 | -114 |
| -11.5 | 108 | 103 | 102 | -106 | -112 | -123 |
| -11 | 109 | 108 | 106 | -106 | -116 | -125 |
| -10.5 | 114 | 112 | 106 | -109 | -118 | -121 |
| -10 | 122 | 116 | 109 | -109 | -111 | -113 |
| -9.5 | 126 | 118 | 109 | -102 | -104 | -108 |
| -9 | 120 | 111 | 102 | -102 | -106 | -111 |
| -8.5 | 113 | 104 | 102 | -104 | -109 | -122 |
| -8 | 108 | 106 | 104 | -104 | -116 | -128 |
| -7.5 | 111 | 109 | 104 | -111 | -123 | -133 |
| -7 | 121 | 116 | 111 | -111 | -119 | -127 |
| -6.5 | 129 | 123 | 111 | -107 | -114 | -118 |
| -6 | 131 | 120 | 107 | -107 | -110 | -113 |
| -5.5 | 128 | 114 | 107 | -103 | -106 | -114 |
| -5 | 117 | 110 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -117 |
| -4.5 | 114 | 106 | 103 | -107 | -114 | -141 |
| -4 | 113 | 110 | 107 | -107 | -131 | -154 |
| -3.5 | 118 | 114 | 107 | -122 | -144 | -151 |
| -3 | 137 | 129 | 120 | -120 | -125 | -130 |
| -2.5 | 156 | 144 | 122 | -104 | -108 | -114 |
| -2 | 150 | 127 | 104 | -104 | -109 | -114 |
| -1.5 | 133 | 108 | 104 | -105 | -109 | -110 |
| -1 | 113 | 109 | 105 | -105 | -105 | -105 |
| 0 | 110 | 105 | EV | EV | -105 | -110 |
| 1 | 105 | 105 | 105 | -105 | -109 | -113 |
| 1.5 | 110 | 109 | 105 | -104 | -108 | -133 |
| 2 | 114 | 109 | 104 | -104 | -127 | -150 |
| 2.5 | 114 | 108 | 104 | -122 | -144 | -156 |
| 3 | 130 | 125 | 120 | -120 | -129 | -137 |
| 3.5 | 151 | 144 | 122 | -107 | -114 | -118 |
| 4 | 154 | 131 | 107 | -107 | -110 | -113 |
| 4.5 | 141 | 114 | 107 | -103 | -106 | -114 |
| 5 | 117 | 110 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -117 |
| 5.5 | 114 | 106 | 103 | -107 | -114 | -128 |
| 6 | 113 | 110 | 107 | -107 | -120 | -131 |
| 6.5 | 118 | 114 | 107 | -111 | -123 | -129 |
| 7 | 127 | 119 | 111 | -111 | -116 | -121 |
| 7.5 | 133 | 123 | 111 | -104 | -109 | -111 |
| 8 | 128 | 116 | 104 | -104 | -106 | -108 |
| 8.5 | 122 | 109 | 104 | -102 | -104 | -113 |
| 9 | 111 | 106 | 102 | -102 | -111 | -120 |
| 9.5 | 108 | 104 | 102 | -109 | -118 | -126 |
| 10 | 113 | 111 | 109 | -109 | -116 | -122 |
| 10.5 | 121 | 118 | 109 | -106 | -112 | -114 |
| 11 | 125 | 116 | 106 | -106 | -108 | -109 |
| 11.5 | 123 | 112 | 106 | -102 | -103 | -108 |
| 12 | 114 | 108 | 102 | -102 | -106 | -111 |
| 12.5 | 110 | 103 | 102 | -105 | -109 | -122 |
| 13 | 108 | 106 | 105 | -105 | -117 | -129 |
| 13.5 | 111 | 109 | 105 | -112 | -123 | -127 |
| 14 | 121 | 116 | 111 | -111 | -114 | -117 |
The next table is for buying and selling points off of the total.
Buying and Selling Points off of the Total
| Total | Sell 1.5 | Sell 1.0 | Sell 0.5 | Buy 0.5 | Buy 1.0 | Buy 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 113 | 111 | 108 | -108 | -116 | -123 |
| 33.5 | 120 | 117 | 108 | -107 | -114 | -120 |
| 34 | 125 | 116 | 107 | -107 | -112 | -116 |
| 34.5 | 124 | 114 | 107 | -104 | -109 | -114 |
| 35 | 119 | 112 | 104 | -104 | -109 | -113 |
| 35.5 | 117 | 109 | 104 | -104 | -108 | -121 |
| 36 | 113 | 109 | 104 | -104 | -116 | -127 |
| 36.5 | 113 | 108 | 104 | -111 | -122 | -130 |
| 37 | 119 | 115 | 110 | -110 | -117 | -124 |
| 37.5 | 127 | 122 | 111 | -106 | -112 | -116 |
| 38 | 129 | 118 | 106 | -106 | -110 | -113 |
| 38.5 | 125 | 112 | 106 | -103 | -107 | -114 |
| 39 | 116 | 110 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -116 |
| 39.5 | 113 | 107 | 103 | -106 | -112 | -122 |
| 40 | 113 | 110 | 106 | -106 | -115 | -124 |
| 40.5 | 116 | 112 | 106 | -108 | -117 | -121 |
| 41 | 121 | 115 | 108 | -108 | -112 | -115 |
| 41.5 | 125 | 117 | 108 | -103 | -107 | -114 |
| 42 | 121 | 112 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -117 |
| 42.5 | 116 | 107 | 103 | -107 | -113 | -122 |
| 43 | 113 | 110 | 106 | -106 | -115 | -123 |
| 43.5 | 117 | 113 | 107 | -108 | -115 | -125 |
| 44 | 122 | 115 | 107 | -107 | -116 | -124 |
| 44.5 | 124 | 115 | 108 | -108 | -115 | -120 |
| 45 | 124 | 116 | 107 | -107 | -112 | -116 |
| 45.5 | 125 | 115 | 108 | -104 | -108 | -117 |
| 46 | 120 | 112 | 104 | -104 | -113 | -121 |
| 46.5 | 116 | 108 | 104 | -108 | -117 | -125 |
| 47 | 117 | 112 | 108 | -108 | -115 | -122 |
| 47.5 | 122 | 117 | 108 | -106 | -113 | -120 |
| 48 | 124 | 116 | 106 | -106 | -113 | -119 |
| 48.5 | 123 | 113 | 106 | -106 | -112 | -118 |
| 49 | 119 | 113 | 106 | -106 | -112 | -118 |
| 49.5 | 119 | 112 | 106 | -106 | -111 | -124 |
| 50 | 118 | 112 | 106 | -106 | -117 | -128 |
| 50.5 | 118 | 111 | 106 | -111 | -122 | -133 |
| 51 | 123 | 117 | 110 | -110 | -120 | -129 |
| 51.5 | 129 | 122 | 111 | -108 | -117 | -122 |
| 52 | 131 | 120 | 108 | -108 | -113 | -118 |
2010 Super Bowl Example
Let's take a look at an example from the Pinnacle Sports adjusted lines on the 2010 Super Bowl. The default lines are Saints +5.5 -106, and Colts -5.5 -102. The following table shows the lines on the Saints. The first column shows the point spreads available. The second column shows the prices Pinnacle offers at each spread. The third column shows the fair line. These can be found from my tables, and then subtracting 2. The reason for subtracting 2 is the Saints are slightly favored at +5.5. The fourth column shows the expected value. Note that none of the adjusted lines are ever a better value than betting the default line of +5.5.
Pinnacle Sports Lines on Saints
| Spread | Pinnacle Line |
Fair Line |
Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +7 | -144 | -130 | -4.16% |
| +6.5 | -124 | -116 | -2.93% |
| +6 | -116 | -109 | -2.86% |
| +5.5 | -106 | -102 | -1.87% |
| +5 | -103 | 101 | -1.92% |
| +4.5 | 100 | 104 | -1.91% |
| +4 | 107 | 112 | -2.13% |
The next table is much the same, but for the Colts. In this case I added 2 points to the fair lines, because the Colts are slight underdogs against a 5.5 spread. This table shows that it is a better value to sell the 1.5 points, and lay 7 points at +128, as opposed to lay 5.5 points at -106. All bets still have a negative expected value. However, if your handicapping skills led you to bet the Colts anyway at -5.5 -102, you would be better off betting them at -7 +128.
Pinnacle Sports Lines on Colts
| Spread | Pinnacle Line |
Fair Line |
Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | 128 | 130 | -0.96% |
| -6.5 | 110 | 116 | -2.84% |
| -6 | 103 | 109 | -2.90% |
| -5.5 | -102 | 102 | -1.96% |
| -5 | -110 | -101 | -4.09% |
| -4.5 | -114 | -104 | -4.35% |
| -4 | -122 | -112 | -4.07% |
I have looked at the Pinnacle lines on some other NFL games besides the Super Bowl. To make a general statement, I think Pinnacle does a solid job setting their alternative point spreads. Sometimes I perceive a better value than the default point spread selling 1.5 points, but never enough to overcome the juice. My advice is if you are going to bet something on Pinnacle anyway, check to see if you get a better value selling 1.5 points.
Methodology
The above tables were based on NFL seasons from 1983 through 2009. To get at a fair probability of winning buying or selling points off of a given spread or total, I looked at all games within 3 points of the spread or total in question, to see how often the final score would have been affected by buying or selling points.
Compare Online NFL Odds
American Football : NFL
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Thu Dec 26th 8pm
Chicago Bears Seattle Seahawks |
⇘5.00 |
|
|
Consider the Bears' improving defense against Seattle's inconsistent offense. Watch for weather impact as it could favor the ground game. Key players' injuries might influence the outcome heavily. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
Buffalo Bills New York Jets |
|
|
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Buffalo Bills strong offense meets New York Jets resilient defense. Watch for key player matchups, turnovers, and weather impacts. Bills favored, but Jets' underdog status could offer value. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Carolina Panthers |
|
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Tampa Bay's strong defense faces Carolina's struggling offense. Monitor player injuries. Weather might impact gameplay. Consider betting under on total points and favor Tampa Bay to win. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers |
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Vikings face Packers, NFC North rivalry. Key players matter: Cousins for Vikings, Love for Packers. Weather at Lambeau Field plays a role. Defense challenges and interceptions can decide winner. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
Jacksonville Jaguars Tennessee Titans |
|
-105 (-1)
|
-110 (39.5)
|
Jaguars' strong offense faces Titans' robust defense. Key players: Jaguars' Lawrence and Titans' Henry. Home advantage may favor Jaguars. Monitor Titans' injuries for betting impact. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
New Orleans Saints Las Vegas Raiders |
|
|
-110 (38)
|
Consider Saints' strong home record and Raiders' travel fatigue. Saints' defense solid, Raiders' offense struggles. Saints favored but expect a close game. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
Washington Commanders Atlanta Falcons |
|
⇗5.00 |
|
The Commanders' defense may struggle against the Falcons' versatile offense. Betting on Atlanta could be wise as they play strongly at home. Monitor injury reports closely before placing bets. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
Cincinnati Bengals Denver Broncos |
|
|
-110 (49.5)
|
Cincinnati Bengals have strong offense. Denver Broncos rely on solid defense. Key player injuries might affect game outcome. Weather conditions could play a role. Bet cautiously on point spread. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 1pm
New York Giants Indianapolis Colts |
|
|
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The betting insight for New York Giants vs. Indianapolis Colts: Giants' strong offense vs. Colts' inconsistent defense may lean the scale. Consider the home field advantage in Giants' favor. |
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Sun Dec 29th 1pm
New England Patriots Los Angeles Chargers |
196
⇗4.00 |
-110 (4.5)
|
-110 (42)
|
Patriots' strong defense faces Chargers' dynamic offense. Quarterback matchup is crucial. Both teams aim for playoff contention. Key injuries could impact performance. Weather may play a role. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 4pm
Los Angeles Rams Arizona Cardinals |
⇗10.00 |
|
-110 (48)
|
Rams' defense outshines Cardinals. Expect high-paced game, Rams likely to cover spread. Key players: Stafford, Kupp. Cardinals need Murray's agility to excel. Watch weather conditions. |
|
Sun Dec 29th 4pm
Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Cowboys |
|
|
-110 (41)
|
Eagles' strong offensive line balances Cowboys' defense. Watch Hurts vs. Prescott duel. Turnovers and home advantage crucial. Eagles favored slightly, but it's a close matchup. Monitor injured players closely. |
| Upcoming matches | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sun Dec 29th 8pm
Cleveland Browns Miami Dolphins |
|
|
-110 (40)
|
The Cleveland Browns face the Miami Dolphins. Consider Miami’s strong offense and Cleveland’s inconsistent form. Monitor injury reports and line movements for strategic betting decisions. |
|
Mon Dec 30th 8pm
San Francisco 49ers Detroit Lions |
|
|
-110 (50.5)
|
49ers have a strong defense, but watch out for Lions' offensive push. Injuries could affect performance. Home advantage favors Lions, but 49ers' track record shines. |
Disclaimer
Ultimately football is played with real people, and not statistics. Compared to other sports, the NFL has relatively few games per year, leading to a small-sample-size problem. So any advice on football betting from anyone, including me, should be taken with a grain of salt.
One might also argue that the magnitude of the total should be taken under consideration. I would tend to disagree, but other sports bettors I respect maintain that the effect of buying and selling points is more significant in a game with a low total. I did not take that into consideration.