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Wizard of Odds on Buying and Selling Points in the NFL
Introduction
This page shows the fair price to buy or sell up to 1.5 points in the NFL, off of both the spread and the total. One practical use for this is when the sports book lets you change the point by up to 1.5 points. Of course, you'll have to lay more if buying points, and get more if selling them. Pinnacle sports book is a good example. You need to log in to do it, but they have a sliding toolbar for the adjusted prices when buying and selling up to 1.5 points. Another practical application is deciding what is the better of two lines. For example, +3 at even money, or +3.5 and -120.
The following table shows the fair price you should have to pay for buying and selling up to 1.5 points according to the fair point spread. For example, if a bet is fair at -10 even money, then it would also be fair at -11.5 at +122, -11 at +116, -10.5 at +109, -9.5 at -109, -9 at -111, and -8.5 at -113. It also answers the question posed above, that +3 even money is an equally good bet as +3.5 at -120. It also shows that it is worth paying 10 points for a half point of a point spread off or onto a spread of 7 (for example going from -7.5 to -7, -7 to -6.5, +6.5 to +7, and +7 to +7.5). So if you are going to lay 110 off of a 7 point spread anyway, it is slightly better to lay 120 for the half point, something many sports books allow.
Buying and Selling Points off of the Spread
| Spread | Sell 1.5 | Sell 1.0 | Sell 0.5 | Buy 0.5 | Buy 1.0 | Buy 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -14 | 117 | 114 | 111 | -111 | -116 | -121 |
| -13.5 | 127 | 123 | 112 | -105 | -109 | -111 |
| -13 | 129 | 117 | 105 | -105 | -106 | -108 |
| -12.5 | 122 | 109 | 105 | -102 | -103 | -110 |
| -12 | 111 | 106 | 102 | -102 | -108 | -114 |
| -11.5 | 108 | 103 | 102 | -106 | -112 | -123 |
| -11 | 109 | 108 | 106 | -106 | -116 | -125 |
| -10.5 | 114 | 112 | 106 | -109 | -118 | -121 |
| -10 | 122 | 116 | 109 | -109 | -111 | -113 |
| -9.5 | 126 | 118 | 109 | -102 | -104 | -108 |
| -9 | 120 | 111 | 102 | -102 | -106 | -111 |
| -8.5 | 113 | 104 | 102 | -104 | -109 | -122 |
| -8 | 108 | 106 | 104 | -104 | -116 | -128 |
| -7.5 | 111 | 109 | 104 | -111 | -123 | -133 |
| -7 | 121 | 116 | 111 | -111 | -119 | -127 |
| -6.5 | 129 | 123 | 111 | -107 | -114 | -118 |
| -6 | 131 | 120 | 107 | -107 | -110 | -113 |
| -5.5 | 128 | 114 | 107 | -103 | -106 | -114 |
| -5 | 117 | 110 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -117 |
| -4.5 | 114 | 106 | 103 | -107 | -114 | -141 |
| -4 | 113 | 110 | 107 | -107 | -131 | -154 |
| -3.5 | 118 | 114 | 107 | -122 | -144 | -151 |
| -3 | 137 | 129 | 120 | -120 | -125 | -130 |
| -2.5 | 156 | 144 | 122 | -104 | -108 | -114 |
| -2 | 150 | 127 | 104 | -104 | -109 | -114 |
| -1.5 | 133 | 108 | 104 | -105 | -109 | -110 |
| -1 | 113 | 109 | 105 | -105 | -105 | -105 |
| 0 | 110 | 105 | EV | EV | -105 | -110 |
| 1 | 105 | 105 | 105 | -105 | -109 | -113 |
| 1.5 | 110 | 109 | 105 | -104 | -108 | -133 |
| 2 | 114 | 109 | 104 | -104 | -127 | -150 |
| 2.5 | 114 | 108 | 104 | -122 | -144 | -156 |
| 3 | 130 | 125 | 120 | -120 | -129 | -137 |
| 3.5 | 151 | 144 | 122 | -107 | -114 | -118 |
| 4 | 154 | 131 | 107 | -107 | -110 | -113 |
| 4.5 | 141 | 114 | 107 | -103 | -106 | -114 |
| 5 | 117 | 110 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -117 |
| 5.5 | 114 | 106 | 103 | -107 | -114 | -128 |
| 6 | 113 | 110 | 107 | -107 | -120 | -131 |
| 6.5 | 118 | 114 | 107 | -111 | -123 | -129 |
| 7 | 127 | 119 | 111 | -111 | -116 | -121 |
| 7.5 | 133 | 123 | 111 | -104 | -109 | -111 |
| 8 | 128 | 116 | 104 | -104 | -106 | -108 |
| 8.5 | 122 | 109 | 104 | -102 | -104 | -113 |
| 9 | 111 | 106 | 102 | -102 | -111 | -120 |
| 9.5 | 108 | 104 | 102 | -109 | -118 | -126 |
| 10 | 113 | 111 | 109 | -109 | -116 | -122 |
| 10.5 | 121 | 118 | 109 | -106 | -112 | -114 |
| 11 | 125 | 116 | 106 | -106 | -108 | -109 |
| 11.5 | 123 | 112 | 106 | -102 | -103 | -108 |
| 12 | 114 | 108 | 102 | -102 | -106 | -111 |
| 12.5 | 110 | 103 | 102 | -105 | -109 | -122 |
| 13 | 108 | 106 | 105 | -105 | -117 | -129 |
| 13.5 | 111 | 109 | 105 | -112 | -123 | -127 |
| 14 | 121 | 116 | 111 | -111 | -114 | -117 |
The next table is for buying and selling points off of the total.
Buying and Selling Points off of the Total
| Total | Sell 1.5 | Sell 1.0 | Sell 0.5 | Buy 0.5 | Buy 1.0 | Buy 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 113 | 111 | 108 | -108 | -116 | -123 |
| 33.5 | 120 | 117 | 108 | -107 | -114 | -120 |
| 34 | 125 | 116 | 107 | -107 | -112 | -116 |
| 34.5 | 124 | 114 | 107 | -104 | -109 | -114 |
| 35 | 119 | 112 | 104 | -104 | -109 | -113 |
| 35.5 | 117 | 109 | 104 | -104 | -108 | -121 |
| 36 | 113 | 109 | 104 | -104 | -116 | -127 |
| 36.5 | 113 | 108 | 104 | -111 | -122 | -130 |
| 37 | 119 | 115 | 110 | -110 | -117 | -124 |
| 37.5 | 127 | 122 | 111 | -106 | -112 | -116 |
| 38 | 129 | 118 | 106 | -106 | -110 | -113 |
| 38.5 | 125 | 112 | 106 | -103 | -107 | -114 |
| 39 | 116 | 110 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -116 |
| 39.5 | 113 | 107 | 103 | -106 | -112 | -122 |
| 40 | 113 | 110 | 106 | -106 | -115 | -124 |
| 40.5 | 116 | 112 | 106 | -108 | -117 | -121 |
| 41 | 121 | 115 | 108 | -108 | -112 | -115 |
| 41.5 | 125 | 117 | 108 | -103 | -107 | -114 |
| 42 | 121 | 112 | 103 | -103 | -110 | -117 |
| 42.5 | 116 | 107 | 103 | -107 | -113 | -122 |
| 43 | 113 | 110 | 106 | -106 | -115 | -123 |
| 43.5 | 117 | 113 | 107 | -108 | -115 | -125 |
| 44 | 122 | 115 | 107 | -107 | -116 | -124 |
| 44.5 | 124 | 115 | 108 | -108 | -115 | -120 |
| 45 | 124 | 116 | 107 | -107 | -112 | -116 |
| 45.5 | 125 | 115 | 108 | -104 | -108 | -117 |
| 46 | 120 | 112 | 104 | -104 | -113 | -121 |
| 46.5 | 116 | 108 | 104 | -108 | -117 | -125 |
| 47 | 117 | 112 | 108 | -108 | -115 | -122 |
| 47.5 | 122 | 117 | 108 | -106 | -113 | -120 |
| 48 | 124 | 116 | 106 | -106 | -113 | -119 |
| 48.5 | 123 | 113 | 106 | -106 | -112 | -118 |
| 49 | 119 | 113 | 106 | -106 | -112 | -118 |
| 49.5 | 119 | 112 | 106 | -106 | -111 | -124 |
| 50 | 118 | 112 | 106 | -106 | -117 | -128 |
| 50.5 | 118 | 111 | 106 | -111 | -122 | -133 |
| 51 | 123 | 117 | 110 | -110 | -120 | -129 |
| 51.5 | 129 | 122 | 111 | -108 | -117 | -122 |
| 52 | 131 | 120 | 108 | -108 | -113 | -118 |
2010 Super Bowl Example
Let's take a look at an example from the Pinnacle Sports adjusted lines on the 2010 Super Bowl. The default lines are Saints +5.5 -106, and Colts -5.5 -102. The following table shows the lines on the Saints. The first column shows the point spreads available. The second column shows the prices Pinnacle offers at each spread. The third column shows the fair line. These can be found from my tables, and then subtracting 2. The reason for subtracting 2 is the Saints are slightly favored at +5.5. The fourth column shows the expected value. Note that none of the adjusted lines are ever a better value than betting the default line of +5.5.
Pinnacle Sports Lines on Saints
| Spread | Pinnacle Line |
Fair Line |
Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| +7 | -144 | -130 | -4.16% |
| +6.5 | -124 | -116 | -2.93% |
| +6 | -116 | -109 | -2.86% |
| +5.5 | -106 | -102 | -1.87% |
| +5 | -103 | 101 | -1.92% |
| +4.5 | 100 | 104 | -1.91% |
| +4 | 107 | 112 | -2.13% |
The next table is much the same, but for the Colts. In this case I added 2 points to the fair lines, because the Colts are slight underdogs against a 5.5 spread. This table shows that it is a better value to sell the 1.5 points, and lay 7 points at +128, as opposed to lay 5.5 points at -106. All bets still have a negative expected value. However, if your handicapping skills led you to bet the Colts anyway at -5.5 -102, you would be better off betting them at -7 +128.
Pinnacle Sports Lines on Colts
| Spread | Pinnacle Line |
Fair Line |
Expected Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | 128 | 130 | -0.96% |
| -6.5 | 110 | 116 | -2.84% |
| -6 | 103 | 109 | -2.90% |
| -5.5 | -102 | 102 | -1.96% |
| -5 | -110 | -101 | -4.09% |
| -4.5 | -114 | -104 | -4.35% |
| -4 | -122 | -112 | -4.07% |
I have looked at the Pinnacle lines on some other NFL games besides the Super Bowl. To make a general statement, I think Pinnacle does a solid job setting their alternative point spreads. Sometimes I perceive a better value than the default point spread selling 1.5 points, but never enough to overcome the juice. My advice is if you are going to bet something on Pinnacle anyway, check to see if you get a better value selling 1.5 points.
Methodology
The above tables were based on NFL seasons from 1983 through 2009. To get at a fair probability of winning buying or selling points off of a given spread or total, I looked at all games within 3 points of the spread or total in question, to see how often the final score would have been affected by buying or selling points.
Compare Online NFL Odds
American Football : NFL
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Tennessee Titans - Minnesota Vikings |
|
-110 (6)
|
-110 (39.5)
|
Consider the Titans' strong defense and the Vikings' home advantage. Watch weather conditions influencing turnovers. Key players: Derrick Henry for Titans; Justin Jefferson for Vikings. |
| Sun Nov 17th 1pm | New England Patriots - Los Angeles Rams |
|
|
-105 (43.5)
|
The Patriots' defense is key against the Rams' aggressive offense. Watch for turnovers. The decisive factor will be quarterback performance under pressure. |
| Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - Las Vegas Raiders |
|
|
-110 (44)
|
Miami Dolphins have a strong offense but face the Raiders' improving defense. Home advantage boosts Miami. Key players to watch: Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Jacobs. |
| Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Detroit Lions - Jacksonville Jaguars |
|
|
|
Key matchup: Lions' high-octane offense vs. Jaguars' resilient defense. Watch QB performance. Betting tip: consider Lions' home advantage. Injury updates may influence odds. |
| Sun Nov 17th 1pm | New Orleans Saints - Cleveland Browns |
100
|
-105 (1)
|
|
The Saints' strong offense faces Cleveland's solid defense. Weather could impact passing game. Browns' home advantage and running game are crucial. Monitor injuries and betting line shifts. |
| Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Chicago Bears - Green Bay Packers |
|
|
-110 (40.5)
|
Chicago Bears face a challenge against the Green Bay Packers' strong offense. Key players to watch include Justin Fields and Aaron Rodgers. Betting favors Packers, but expect a close game. |
| Sun Nov 17th 1pm | Pittsburgh Steelers - Baltimore Ravens |
|
100 (3)
|
-110 (48.5)
|
Steelers-Ravens rivalry is intense. Ravens' strong defense vs. Steelers' improving offense. Weather can be a factor. Consider recent injuries and head-to-head stats. Close match expected. |
| Sun Nov 17th 4pm | San Francisco 49ers - Seattle Seahawks |
|
|
|
Consider San Francisco's strong defense and key players' performance. Seattle's home advantage and Russell Wilson's health can impact the game. Weather could influence both teams' strategies. |
| Sun Nov 17th 4pm | Denver Broncos - Atlanta Falcons |
|
|
|
Broncos strong defensively, faltering offense. Falcons excel in aerial attack. Key: Turnovers will decide. Home advantage leans to Falcons. Consider under on total points. |
| Sun Nov 17th 4pm | Buffalo Bills - Kansas City Chiefs |
-130
|
-105 (-2.5)
|
-110 (46)
|
Buffalo Bills' strong defense faces Kansas City Chiefs' explosive offense. Key matchups include Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes. Turnovers and red zone efficiency may determine the game's outcome. |
| Sun Nov 17th 4pm | Los Angeles Chargers - Cincinnati Bengals |
|
-105 (-1.5)
|
|
Chargers struggle on defense, Bengals strong on offense. Key players: Herbert and Burrow. Expect a high-scoring game with turnovers. Watch weather for impact. |
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 17th 8pm | New York Jets - Indianapolis Colts |
-190
|
-105 (-4)
|
-110 (44)
|
Expect a close game. Jets have strong defense but inconsistent offense. Colts thrive on strategic running plays. Consider betting on total points under the line for safer bets. |
| Mon Nov 18th 8pm | Dallas Cowboys - Houston Texans |
300
|
100 (7)
|
-110 (41.5)
|
Dallas Cowboys favored due to strong defense and superior offense. Houston Texans struggle with consistency. Expect a high-scoring game with Dallas dominating, but Houston can surprise. Watch for turnovers. |
| Thu Nov 21st 8pm | Cleveland Browns - Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
-105 (3)
|
-110 (41)
|
Cleveland Browns have a strong defense this season. Pittsburgh Steelers rely on their passing game. Expect a close match, but turnovers could decide the outcome. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | New York Giants - Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
|
-110 (43.5)
|
The Giants face an uphill battle against a strong Buccaneers team. Tampa Bay's defense and Tom Brady's leadership make them favorites. Giants need a strong offense to compete. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Miami Dolphins - New England Patriots |
|
-110 (-7)
|
-110 (43.5)
|
Miami Dolphins bring offensive firepower. Patriots' defense remains strong. Dolphins' speed vs. Patriots' tactics. Watch for turnovers. Key players: Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones. Weather may influence outcomes. Special teams crucial. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Houston Texans - Tennessee Titans |
-278
|
-110 (-7.5)
|
-110 (42.5)
|
Injuries and defensive matchups play crucial roles. Consider home advantage, recent form, and key player performance. Turnover battle significantly impacts the outcome. Monitor quarterback play for strategic betting. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Indianapolis Colts - Detroit Lions |
|
|
-110 (50.5)
|
Colts' strong defense challenges Lions' passing attack. Key players: Colts' Taylor, Lions' Goff. Watch for turnovers. Weather impact minimal. Both teams have playoff ambitions. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Washington Commanders - Dallas Cowboys |
158
|
-110 (-10)
|
-110 (44.5)
|
Dallas Cowboys are favored, strong defense crucial. Washington Commanders need offensive consistency. Watch for key player matchups. Weather and home advantage might influence outcomes. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Chicago Bears - Minnesota Vikings |
|
-110 (5)
|
-110 (41)
|
Vikings are favored due to stronger offense, while Bears have a chance if their defense can contain Minnesota's key players. |
| Sun Nov 24th 1pm | Carolina Panthers - Kansas City Chiefs |
|
-110 (10.5)
|
-110 (41.5)
|
Kansas City Chiefs are favorites with a strong offense, while Carolina Panthers struggle defensively. Consider betting on Chiefs to cover the spread due to their superior performance this season. |
| Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Las Vegas Raiders - Denver Broncos |
|
-110 (3)
|
|
Raiders vs. Broncos: Both teams have strong defenses but inconsistent offenses. Home-field advantage could favor Broncos. Key injuries may impact the outcome. Consider under for total points. |
| Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Green Bay Packers - San Francisco 49ers |
122
|
-110 (0)
|
-110 (48)
|
Consider 49ers' strong defense and Packers' recent form. Key players may impact odds. Weather may influence game dynamics. Home advantage could benefit 49ers. |
| Sun Nov 24th 4pm | Arizona Cardinals - Seattle Seahawks |
135
|
-110 (0)
|
-110 (48)
|
Cardinals face Seahawks. Key players to watch: Kyler Murray for Arizona, D.K. Metcalf for Seattle. Check team performance under high pressure situations. Betting lines favor Seattle. |
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 24th 8pm | Los Angeles Rams - Philadelphia Eagles |
|
|
-110 (48)
|
The Eagles' strong offense faces the Rams' resilient defense. Key players could swing the game. Monitor injuries and weather conditions as they may impact betting odds. |
| Mon Nov 25th 8pm | Los Angeles Chargers - Baltimore Ravens |
135
|
-110 (3)
|
-110 (48)
|
Chargers' high-powered offense faces Ravens' resilient defense. Expect a high-scoring game with potential turnovers. Key players: Herbert (LAC), Jackson (BAL). Betting focus: point spread, over/under. |
Disclaimer
Ultimately football is played with real people, and not statistics. Compared to other sports, the NFL has relatively few games per year, leading to a small-sample-size problem. So any advice on football betting from anyone, including me, should be taken with a grain of salt.
One might also argue that the magnitude of the total should be taken under consideration. I would tend to disagree, but other sports bettors I respect maintain that the effect of buying and selling points is more significant in a game with a low total. I did not take that into consideration.