Sports Betting Appendix 4
Last update: Oct. 12, 2009
Preface
This page is based on data from only the 2000 to 2005 NFL seasons. Since writing this page, I have addressed teasers based on data from 1983 to 2008 in my page on Betting the NFL. So this page has become dated, and I would suggest ignoring it.
Introduction
Teasers are similar to parlays except the point spread on each game moves 6, 6.5, or 7 points in the player's favor. The player pays for this in the form of much lower winnings. For example assume Baltimore is an 8 point favorite over San Francisco. If you tease Baltimore on a 6-point teaser they will only have to beat San Francisco by more than 2 points. In the event of a tie teasers "redude", meaning it is as if the player never picked that game. For example if the player makes a 5-team teaser and wins 4 and ties 1 he will be paid based on a win for a 4-team teaser. However with a two-team teaser a win and a tie, or two ties, will result in a push. The player may also tease the over/under on the total, which historically speaking is harder to win than teasing a specific team.
The following table shows the probability of winning each pick according to the number of points and whether you are teasing a team or total. All tables are based on teasing both sides of every game in the five NFL football seasons from 2000 to 2005. Ties were ignorred.
| Teaser Probability of Winning per Pick |
| Points |
Team |
Total |
| 6 | 68.95% | 66.83% |
| 6.5 | 70.23% | 68.50% |
| 7 | 71.70% | 70.01% |
The following tables show the payoff and house edge according to the number of teaser points and number of games. Note the variation in payoffs.
6-Point Teasers
| Two Team 6-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| -120 | 12.85% | 18.12% |
| -110 | 9.25% | 14.74% |
| Ev | 4.92% | 10.68% |
| Three Team 6-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| 160 | 14.78% | 22.4% |
| 170 | 11.5% | 19.42% |
| 180 | 8.23% | 16.43% |
| Four Team 6-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| 250 | 20.91% | 30.19% |
| 300 | 9.61% | 20.22% |
| Five-Team 6-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| 400 | 22.09% | 33.36% |
| 450 | 14.3% | 26.69% |
| Six Team 6-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| 600 | 24.8% | 37.65% |
| 700 | 14.06% | 28.74% |
6.5 Point Teasers
| Two-Team 6.5-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| -110 | 5.85% | 10.41% |
| -120 | 9.58% | 13.97% |
| -130 | 12.74% | 16.98% |
| Three Team 6.5-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| 140 | 16.88% | 22.85% |
| 150 | 13.41% | 19.64% |
| 160 | 9.95% | 16.42% |
| Four-Team 6.5-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| 200 | 27.03% | 33.94% |
| 250 | 14.87% | 22.93% |
| Five-Team 6.5-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| 350 | 23.13% | 32.12% |
| 400 | 14.59% | 24.58% |
| Six-Team 6.5-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| 500 | 28.03% | 38% |
| 600 | 16.03% | 27.67% |
7 Point Teasers
| Two Team 7-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| -130 | 9.05% | 13.29% |
| -140 | 11.87% | 15.98% |
| Three-Team 7-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| 120 | 18.91% | 24.52% |
| 140 | 11.54% | 17.66% |
| 150 | 7.85% | 14.23% |
| Four-Team 7-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| 180 | 26% | 32.75% |
| 200 | 20.71% | 27.94% |
| Five Team 7-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| 300 | 24.2% | 32.74% |
| 350 | 14.73% | 24.33% |
| Six-Team 7-Point Teasers |
| Pays |
Team |
Total |
| 450 | 25.27% | 35.26% |
| 500 | 18.48% | 29.37% |
The bottom line on the above tables is that teasers on average are a sucker bet. In his book Sharp Sports Betting Stanford Wong discusses what have become known as "Wong Teasers", in which the player crosses the frequent 3 and 7 point margins of victory. For example moving a point spread from 2 to 8, or -8 to -2. My own book, Gambling 102 also discusses the player advantage of Wong Teasers. I have to give you some reason to buy it!
If you see any exotic teasers, such as the Stardust ties win teasers I suggest you avoid them. My analysis of the Stardust ties win teaser shows them to carry a house edge of 19% to 51%, depending on the number of picks.
Other Teasers
The Stardust offers a 5-point teaser where ties win. In addition they move point spreads ending with a half by a half point, so every game has the potential to end in a tie. The probability of any random pick winning is 67.1%, based on the 93 through 2000 NFL seasons. Other casinos that offer the same teaser bets as the Stardust are Sam's Town, California, Fremont, Eldorado, and Jokers Wild.
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