Blackjack side bets

Last Update: May 12, 2012

This appendix shall explain and analyze some blackjack side bets I have seen. In the U.S. a W2G tax form is generated on any table game win that exceeds $600 and pays 300 to 1 or more. Here is an index of the blackjack side bets covered in this appendix.

• Automatic Win/Casino Surrender
• 2 Run 21
• 2 Through 6
• 21+3
• 21 to the River
• 3 Card Hard Hand
• Bet the Bust
• Blackjack only
• Block
• Bonanza Blackjack
• Bonus Blackjack (version 1)
• Bonus Blackjack (version 2)
• Bonus Spin
• Buster Blackjack
• Bust It
• Bust Me
• Cowboys & Cowgirls
• Dare Any Pair
• Field of Gold
• Hi/Low
• High Tie Bonus Blackjack
• Hit and Run
• In Between
• Instant 18
• Jack Magic
• Kings Bounty
• Lucky Ladies
• Lucky Lucky
• Lucky Pairs
• Match the Dealer
• Over/Under 13
• Pair Square
• Perfect Charlie
• Perfect Pairs
• Progressive Blackjack
• Royal Match
• Straight 8's
• Streak
• Super Sevens
• Super Split
• Sweet 16
• Tie (version 1)
• Tie (version 2)
• Twin Blackjack
• Wheel of Madness
• Winners Option

Super Sevens

The following is the payoff table for Super Sevens:

Super Sevens Payoff Table
Hand	Pays
First card a seven	3-1
First two cards unsuited sevens	50-1
First two cards suited sevens	100-1
First three cards unsuited sevens	500-1
First three cards suited sevens	5000-1

These awards are not cumulative, in other words if youget three sevens you don't get paid for one and two sevensas well. If the dealer gets a blackjack the player can stillget paid for at least two sevens. At some casinos if theplayer has two sevens and the dealer gets a blackjack athird card will be dealt to the player for the chance to getthree sevens.

The following probability table 1 shows the probability,payoff, and expected return of each hand. This table assumes(1) a third card is not dealt if the player has two sevensand the dealer gets a blackjack and (2) six decks.

Super Sevens Probability Table 1
Hand	Probability	Pays	Return
1 seven	0.071234	3 to 1	0.213703
2 unsuited 7's	0.004151	50 to 1	0.207569
2 suited 7's	0.001153	100 to 1	0.115316
3 unsuited 7's	0.000369	500 to 1	0.184557
3 suited 7's	0.000015	5000 to 1	0.075924
non-paying hand	0.923077	-1 to 1	-0.923077
Total	1		-0.126008

The following probability table 2 shows the probability,payoff, and expected return of each hand. This table assumes(1) a third card is dealt if the player has two sevens andthe dealer gets a blackjack and (2) six decks.

Super Sevens Probability Table 2
Hand	Permutations	Probability	Pays	Return
1 seven	2142720	0.071234	3 to 1	0.213703
2 unsuited 7's	124416	0.004136	50 to 1	0.206809
2 suited 7's	34560	0.001149	100 to 1	0.114894
3 unsuited 7's	11664	0.000388	500 to 1	0.193883
3 suited 7's	480	0.000016	5000 to 1	0.079787
Non-paying hand	27766080	0.923077	-1 to 1	-0.923077
Total	30079920	1		-0.114

The tables above show a house edge of 12.61% if theplayer does not get a third card if the dealer gets ablackjack and a house edge of 11.40% if the player isguaranteed to get three cards.

Below are the derivations of the table 1 probabilitieswhere n is the number of decks. The combin(x,y) function isthe number of ways to arrange y cards out of x. For examplecombin(52,5)=2598960, the number of possible five card pokerhands from a single deck. Let p₂ denote theprobability that dealer will get a blackjack if the player'sfirst two cards are sevens. Let p₃ denote theprobability that dealer will get a blackjack if the player'sfirst three cards are sevens. The combin(x,y) function canbe used in Excel, by the way.

Probability of 1 seven: (1/13)*(48*n/(52*n-1))

Probability of 2 unsuited sevens:[combin(4n,2)-4*combin(n,2)]/combin(52*n,2) *[(48*n)/(52*n-2) * (1-p₂) +p₂]

Probability of 2 suited sevens:4*combin(n,2)/combin(52*n,2) * [(48*n)/(52*n-2) *(1-p₂) + p₂]

Probability of 3 unsuited sevens:[combin(4n,3)-4*combin(n,3)]/combin(52*n,3) *(1-p₃)

Probability of 3 suited sevens:4*combin(n,3)/combin(52*n,3) * (1-p₃)

p₂ = 4*(4*n)² /combin(52*n-2,2)

p₃ = 4*(4*n)² /combin(52*n-3,2)

Below are the probabilities for table 2 where the playeris guaranteed to get a third card.

Probability of 1 seven: (1/13)*(48*n/(52*n-1))

Probability of 2 unsuited sevens:[combin(4n,2)-4*combin(n,2)]/combin(52*n,2)

Probability of 2 suited sevens:4*combin(n,2)/combin(52*n,2) * (48*n)/(52*n-2)

Probability of 3 unsuited sevens:[combin(4n,3)-4*combin(n,3)]/combin(52*n,3)

Probability of 3 suited sevens:4*combin(n,3)/combin(52*n,3)

Royal Match

The royal match is a simple bet that pays a bonus if the first two cards are suited (an easy match) and a top bonusfor a suited king and queen (a royal match). Below are probability tables for two versions I have seen.

Royal Match — Version 1 — Six Decks
Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Royal match	25	144	0.002968	0.074202
Easy match	2.5	11,868	0.244620	0.611551
No match	-1	36,504	0.752412	-0.752412
Total		48,516	1.000000	-0.066658

Royal Match — Version 2 — One Deck
Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Royal match	10	4	0.003017	0.030166
Easy match	3	308	0.232278	0.696833
No match	-1	1,014	0.764706	-0.764706
Total		1,326	1.000000	-0.037707

The following table displays the house edge for eachversion given the number of decks used.

Royal Match — House Edge
Number of Decks	Version 1	Version 2
1	0.108597	0.037707
2	0.083271	0.008215
4	0.070792	-0.006317
6	0.066658	-0.011130
8	0.064597	-0.013531

The probabilities for the royal match are easy to derive.Lets use n for the number of decks of cards. The number oftwo card combinations is combin(52×n,2). The number of waysto make a royal match is 4*n². This is becausethere are 4 suits and n ways to choose the queen and n waysto choose the king. The number of ways to make an easy matchis 4×(combin(13×n,2)-n²). The 4 is the number ofsuits and combin(13×n,2) is the number of ways to arrange 2cards from a given suit. You must also subtract the numberof ways to make a royal match.

The probability of an easy match is4×(combin(13×n,2)-n²)/combin(52×n,2).

The probability of a royal match is4×n²/combin(52×n,2).

Version 3

In a third version there is a separate pay for a suited blackjack as follows.

• Royal Match pays 25 to 1
• Suited Blackjack pays 5 to 1
• Easy Match pays 5 to 2

The following table shows the expected value for a 6-deck game is -3.70%.

Royal Match - Version 3 - Six Decks
Hand	Combinations	Probability	Pays	Return
Royal match	144	0.002968	25	0.074202
Suited blackjack	576	0.011872	5	0.059362
All other matches	11292	0.232748	2.5	0.58187
Loss	36504	0.752412	-1	-0.752412
Total	48516	1		-0.036977

The next table shows the house edge for various number of decks for version 3.

Royal Match - Version 3 1 to 8 Decks
Decks	House Edge
1	7.84%
2	5.34%
3	4.52%
4	4.11%
5	3.86%
6	3.70%
7	3.58%
8	3.49%

Version 4

The Shufflemaster TMS 300 is an electronic blackjack game, played facing a giant video screen of a dealer. It features a Royal Match side bet, adding a pay for the player and dealer both having a royal match. Following is the return table for six decks.

Royal Match — Version 4 — Six Decks
Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Player and Dealer Royal Match	1000	19152	0.000008	0.008242
Player royal match	25	6877728	0.00296	0.073996
Suited	2.5	568417860	0.24462	0.611551
Loser	-1	1748359080	0.752412	-0.752412
Total		2323673820	1	-0.058622

The next table shows the house edge by number of decks.

Royal Match — Version 4 — 1-8 Decks
Number of Decks	House Edge
1	10.14%
2	7.59%
3	6.73%
4	6.3%
5	6.04%
6	5.86%
7	5.74%
8	5.64%

Version 5

Version 5 of the Royal Match is a progressive jackpot on ShuffleMaster TableMax units. These are the electronic blackjack games with a big screen, usually showing a pretty and very buxom dealer.

In this version, the side bet is always $1. It pays a progressive jackpot for a "Crown Treasure," which is both the dealer and player having a Royal Match. Smaller pays are $60 for a player only royal match, and $10 for a player straight flush, which I assume means the player's first two cards are suited and consecutive, including A-2.

There is also a $500 envy bonus, which pays if you make the side bet, and another player gets a Crown Treasure. The other player does not have to make the side bet for other players to qualify for the Envy Bonus.

The following table shows a hypothetical return table, for six decks, a $10,000 jackpot, and no other players.

Six-Deck Progressive Royal Match — $10,000 Jackpot and No Other Players
Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Crown Treasure	$10,000	19,152.00	0.000008	0.082421
Royal Match	$60	6,877,728.00	0.002960	0.177591
Straight Flush	$10	82,762,560.00	0.035617	0.356171
Loser	$0	2,234,014,380.00	0.961415	0.000000
Total		2,323,673,820.00	1.000000	0.616183

The general formula for the return in a six-deck game is 0.533762 + 0.082421×j + 0.004121× p, where j is the jackpot divided by $10,000, and p is the number of other players (not counting yourself).

The next table shows the breakeven points, in which the expected return is exactly 100%, given the number of other players, in a six-deck game.

Progressive Royal Match Breakeven Points
Other Players	Breakeven Point
6	$53,567.70
5	$54,067.70
4	$54,567.70
3	$55,067.70
2	$55,567.70
1	$56,067.70
0	$56,567.70

Streak

Streak is an optional blackjack side bet I noticed atCaesars in Atlantic City in April of 2000. Since that time I have seen it displayed at the Global Gaming Expo, where I have been given rule updates. Streak is a simplebet on winning a specified number of consecutive bets. Ifthe player splits then it is the net win that counts towardwhether the hand as a whole won or lost. For example if theplayer split and won one hand and pushed the other the handwould count as a net win. In the event of a push or breakingeven after a split the hand would not count for purposes ofthe side bet, neither advancing the number of consecutivewins nor breaking the winning streak. The player may bet ona winning streak from 2 to 5, or as many of these asdesired.

My blackjack appendix 4 addresses the probability of a net win or loss. However that table includes surrender, which is usually not offered, and a player may decline to take anyway, if a Streak bet were on the line. So I reran my simulation with the following rules: six decks, dealer stands on soft 17, no surrender, player may split up to four hands, double on any two cards, double after split allowed, resplit aces not allowed, cut card used. Here are the results of the simulation.

Net Win in Blackjack
Net win	Simulation Total	Probability	Return
8	1400	0.000001	0.000006
7	12763	0.000007	0.000048
6	76258	0.000041	0.000245
5	284607	0.000152	0.000762
4	1435913	0.000769	0.003077
3	4584941	0.002456	0.007368
2	114511009	0.061343	0.122686
1.5	84495618	0.045264	0.067896
1	603601989	0.323348	0.323348
0	163884660	0.087793	0
-1	805017526	0.431246	-0.431246
-2	83647458	0.04481	-0.089619
-3	3984819	0.002135	-0.006404
-4	963035	0.000516	-0.002064
-5	180925	0.000097	-0.000485
-6	37217	0.00002	-0.00012
-7	5072	0.000003	-0.000019
-8	417	0	-0.000002
Total	1866725627	1	-0.004521

The lower right cell shows a house edge of 0.4521%. This may look a bit high for the rules, especially against my blackjack calculator. Most house edge figures, including those of my calculator are based on a continuously shuffled game. The use of a cut card, as was the case in this simulation, adds 0.02% to the house edge with six decks. For more information on the cut card effect please see my blackjack appendix 10.

Adding up the wins and losses we get the following.

Net Win in Blackjack
Event	Probability
Win	43.34%
Loss	47.88%
Tie	8.78%
Win given no tie	47.51%
Loss given no tie	52.49%

The probability of winning n hands in a row is simply 0.4751ⁿ. The following return tables show the pay table, probability of winning, and return for all four streak bets, under both the new and old rules.

Streak Bet Return Table - New Rules
Streak Bet	Pays	Probability Win	Return
2	3	0.225712	-0.097154
3	8	0.107234	-0.034898
4	18	0.050946	-0.032032
5	38	0.024204	-0.05605

The table above shows that under the new, more liberal, rules the best bet is on a streak of 4, with a house edge of 3.20%.

Streak Bet Return Table - Old Rules
Streak Bet	Pays	Probability Win	Return
2	3	0.225712	-0.097154
3	7	0.107234	-0.142132
4	17	0.050946	-0.082978
5	37	0.024204	-0.080254

Over/Under 13

This pair of side bets pay even money if the player can correctly bet if the sum of the player's first two cardswill be over or under 13. Aces count as 1. At the Majestic Casino in Panama City, Panama, the player may also bet on exactly 13, which pays 10 to 1. The following is the house edge according to the number of decks. The house edge for exactly 13 is calculated at 10 to 1.

Over/Under 13
Decks	Over 13	Under 13	Exactly 13
1	6.79%	10.11%	7.09%
2	6.65%	10.08%	7.99%
4	6.58%	10.07%	8.44%
6	6.55%	10.07%	8.58%
8	6.54%	10.06%	8.66%

Pair Square

"Pair Square" is a blackjack side bet I have seen in Tunica, Las Vegas, and Reno. It wins if the player's first two cards are a pair, usually more for a suited pair. I have seen or heard of a number of pay tables through the years. Following are return tables for some of them.

Pair Square — 12-10 Pay Table — Six Decks
Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Suited pair	12	780	0.016077	0.192926
Non-suited pair	10	2808	0.057878	0.578778
No pair	-1	44928	0.926045	-0.926045
Total		48516	1.000000	-0.154341

Pair Square — 12-12 Pay Table — Six Decks
Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Suited pair	12	780	0.016077	0.192926
Non-suited pair	12	2808	0.057878	0.694534
No pair	-1	44928	0.926045	-0.926045
Total		48516	1.000000	-0.038585

Pair Square — 15-10 Pay Table — Six Decks
Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Suited pair	15	780	0.016077	0.241158
Non-suited pair	10	2808	0.057878	0.578778
No pair	-1	44928	0.926045	-0.926045
Total		48516	1.000000	-0.106109

Pair Square — 20-10 Pay Table — Six Decks
Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Suited pair	20	780	0.016077	0.321543
Non-suited pair	10	2808	0.057878	0.578778
No pair	-1	44928	0.926045	-0.926045
Total		48516	1.000000	-0.025723

Pair Square — 25-10 Pay Table — Two Decks
Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Suited pair	25	52	0.009709	0.242718
Non-suited pair	10	312	0.058252	0.582524
No pair	-1	4992	0.932039	-0.932039
Total		5356	1.000000	-0.106796

Pair Square — 15 Pay Table — One Deck
Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Non-suited pair	15	78	0.058824	0.882353
No pair	-1	1248	0.941176	-0.941176
Total		1326	1.000000	-0.058824

The next table summarizes the house edge for all known pay tables by number of decks. A negative house edge denotes a player advantage, for a combination of pay table and number of decks you're unlikely to ever see, but let me know if you do.

Pair Square — House Edge Summary
Decks	0-15 Pay table	12-10 Pay table	12-12 Pay table	15-10 Pay table	20-10 Pay table	25-10 Pay table
1	5.88%	35.29%	23.53%	35.29%	35.29%	35.29%
2	5.83%	23.30%	11.65%	20.39%	15.53%	10.68%
3	5.81%	19.35%	7.74%	15.48%	9.03%	2.58%
4	5.80%	17.39%	5.80%	13.04%	5.80%	-1.45%
5	5.79%	16.22%	4.63%	11.58%	3.86%	-3.86%
6	5.79%	15.43%	3.86%	10.61%	2.57%	-5.47%
7	5.79%	14.88%	3.31%	9.92%	1.65%	-6.61%
8	5.78%	14.46%	2.89%	9.40%	0.96%	-7.47%

Tie — Version 1

Caesars Palace in Las Vegas at one time offered a side bet on a tie at two of their blackjack tables. If the player and dealer do tie the side bet pays 10 to 1. The player may bet no more than 50% of their original blackjack wager on the side bet. If the player splits he must also split the side bet. If the player doubles, he does not double the side bet. For the analysis I assumed for the following blackjack rules:

• Winning blackjack pays 3 to 2.
• Six decks.
• Dealer hits soft 17.
• Double after split allowed.
• No surrender.
• No re-splitting aces.

The following table shows the proper basic strategy assuming the maximum side bet is played and the rules above.

Assuming the rules and strategy above, I show an overall house edge of 0.24%, which is the expected player win divided by the initial 1.5 units bet. If a winning blackjack paid 6-5, then the house edge would be 1.15%.

Tie — Version 2

In August 2010 I noticed another version of side betting on a tie in blackjack at Harrah's Las Vegas. Unlike version 1, where all ties pay 10 to 1, at Harrah's you could bet on all six possible ties individually, or on a low or a high tie. As I recall, the rules were:

• Six decks
• Blackjack pays 6 to 5.
• Dealer hits soft 17
• Double after split allowed.
• No surrender.
• No re-splitting aces.
• If player doubles, he does not double the tie wagers.
• If player splits, he does not double the tie wagers. Any tie wagers will be resolved based on the first hand played out.
• An ace and 10 after splitting aces is considered 21 points for purposes of both the blackjack and tie wagers.
• If the player re-splits, then all tie wagers are lost.

The layout has betting circles for 17, 18, 19, and LS (left side) tie wagers on the left of the betting circle for the blackjack wagers. The other four tie wagers are on the right side. The player may bet up to half his blackjack wager on the sum of the four left side tie wagers, and likewise up to half on on the right side.

If the player does bet a tie, it significantly changes the strategy. The player will do more hitting, and less of everything else. There is a separate strategy for each tie wager. I won't bother to publish them unless the game gets a significant number of placements.

I spent all day trying to analyze this one, but the doubling and splitting rules made it too difficult. So I'm quoting below pay table #4 from the game owner's web site, blackjacktie.com , with permission.

Tie (version 2) House Edge
Tie Wager	Pays	House Edge
17	50	2.41%
18	45	5.79%
19	50	3.67%
20	25	8.47%
21	125	10.85%
BJ	400	7.18%
LS (17, 18, 19)	15	8.07%
RS (20, 21, BJ)	20	9.39%

21+3

Version 1

Version 1 of 21+3 I noticed atthe Las Vegas Hilton in April, 2001. The side bet pays basedon the player's first two cards and the dealer's up card. Ifthe three cards equal a flush, straight, straight flush, orthree of a kind the side bet pays 9 to 1. The followingtable shows the probability of each hand in a six-deck game,as played at the Hilton.

21+3 - 6 decks
Hand	Combinations	Probability	Pays	Return
Straight flush	10368	0.002068	9 to 1	0.018613
Three of a kind	26312	0.005248	9 to 1	0.047236
Straight	155520	0.031021	9 to 1	0.279192
Flush	236736	0.047221	9 to 1	0.424993
Pair+flush	56160	0.011202	9 to 1	0.100819
Pair (no flush)	977184	0.194918	-1 to 1	-0.194918
Nothing	3551040	0.708321	-1 to 1	-0.708321
Total	5013320	1	to 1	-0.032386

The house edge under these rules is 3.24%.

Version 2

At the Regent in Las Vegas all hands listed above, plus apair, pay 5 to 2. I'll call this version 2. Two decks are used in this version. Thefollowing table shows a house edge under these rules of 2.78%.

21+3 - 2 decks
Hand	Combinations	Probability	Pays	Return
Straight flush	384	0.002109	2.5 to 1	0.005272
Three of a kind	728	0.003998	2.5 to 1	0.009994
Straight	5760	0.03163	2.5 to 1	0.079076
Flush	8768	0.048148	2.5 to 1	0.120371
Pair	34944	0.19189	2.5 to 1	0.479726
Nothing	131520	0.722225	-1 to 1	-0.722225
Total	182104	1		-0.027786

Version 3

I have an unconfirmed report that Internet casinos using Wagerworks software use the following pay table, which I will call "Version 3."

21+3 — Version 3 — Six Decks
Hand	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Suited three of a kind	100	1040	0.000207	0.020745
Three of a kind	33	25272	0.005041	0.166352
Straight flush	35	10368	0.002068	0.072383
Straight	10	155520	0.031021	0.310214
Flush	5	292896	0.058424	0.292118
Loss	-1	4528224	0.903239	-0.903239
Total		5013320	1	-0.041427

Although Wager Works only uses six decks in their blackjack game, as far as I know, here is the house edge for 3 to 8 decks.

21+3 — Version 3 — 3-8 Decks
Decks	House Edge
3	7.76%
4	5.99%
5	4.89%
6	4.14%
7	3.60%
8	3.18%

Sweet Sixteen

Sweet Sixteen is a blackjack side bet I noticed at theLas Vegas Club in April 2001. It is played with a six-deckshoe and pays based on the player's first two cards. Thefollowing table shows each paying hand, the probability,payoff, and contribution to the total return.

Sweet Sixteen
Hand	Probability	Pays	Return
16-21 points	0.31907	1 to 1	0.63814
One ace	0.142468	1 to 1	0.284937
Two aces	0.005689	2 to 1	0.017067
Pair 2's-7's	0.034133	push	0.034133
Total	0.50136		0.974277

The lower right cell shows a return of 97.43%, for ahouse edge of 2.57%. Here is the house edge for othernumbers of decks.

 

• 1 deck: 3.62%
• 2 decks: 2.99%
• 4 decks: 2.68%
• 8 decks: 2.52%

Dare any Pair

Dare any Pair is a side bet I noticed at the Lady Luck inApril 2001. It simply pays 11 to 1 if the player's first twocards are a pair. Six decks are used. The probability of apair is 0.073954984 for a house edge of 11.25%. Here is thehouse edge for other numbers of decks.

 

• 1 deck: 29.41%
• 2 decks: 18.45%
• 4 decks: 13.04%
• 8 decks: 10.36%

Lucky Ladies

This is a common side bet found in many casinos such as the Wizard's Casino (nice name) in Seattle. Any player 20-point hand wins something. There are three possible pay tables, A-C, as follows:

Lucky Ladies — Pay Table A and B
Hand	Table A	Table B
Q of hearts pair & dealer has BJ	1000 to 1	1000 to 1
Q of hearts pair	125 to 1	200 to 1
Matched 20 (same rank and suit)	19 to 1	25 to 1
Suited 20	9 to 1	10 to 1
Unsuited 20	4 to 1	4 to 1
Non-20	-1 to 1	-1 to 1

Lucky Ladies — Pay Table C
Hand	Table C
Pair of queens with dealer BJ	250 to 1
Pair of queens	25 to 1
Ranked 20	9 to 1
Suited 20	6 to 1
Any 20	3 to 1
Non-20	-1 to 1

The next table is an analysis of pay table A with six decks.

Lucky Ladies Pay Table A -- 6 decks
Hand	Permutations	Probability	Pays	Return
Q of hearts pair & dealer has BJ	135360	0.000015	1000 to 1	0.014563
Q of hearts pair	2738340	0.000295	125 to 1	0.036827
Matched 20 (same rank and suit)	43105500	0.004638	19 to 1	0.088115
Suited 20	193112640	0.020777	9 to 1	0.186990
Unsuited 20	744863040	0.080139	4 to 1	0.320554
Non-20	8310740400	0.894138	-1 to 1	-0.894138
Total	9294695280	0		-0.247089

The lower right cell shows a return of 75.29%, or a houseedge of 24.71%.

The next table is an analysis of pay table C with one deck.

Lucky Ladies Pay Table C -- 1 deck
Hand	Permutations	Probability	Pays	Return
Pair of queens with dealer BJ	1344	0.000207	250 to 1	0.051713
Pair of queens	28056	0.004318	25 to 1	0.107951
Ranked 20	88200	0.013575	9 to 1	0.122172
Suited 20	137200	0.021116	6 to 1	0.126697
Any 20	411600	0.063348	3 to 1	0.190045
Non-20	5831000	0.897436	-1 to 1	-0.897436
Total	6497400	1	to 1	-0.298858

The lower right cell shows a house edge of 29.89%.

The final Lucky Ladies table shows the house edge according to the pay table and number of decks. Note that the top hands with pay table A and B are impossible with 1 deck.

Lucky Ladies -- Summary
Decks	Table A	Table B	Table C
1	38.16%	36.05%	29.89%
2	30.05%	24.94%	25.51%
3	27.37%	21.28%	24.07%
4	26.04%	19.46%	23.35%
5	25.24%	18.37%	22.92%
6	24.71%	17.64%	22.64%
7	24.33%	17.12%	22.43%
8	24.05%	16.73%	22.28%

Bonus Blackjack — Version 1

This is a simple pair of side bets that the player and/or dealer will get a blackjack. Wins pay 15 to 1. The player may bet on a player blackjac and/or dealer blackjack. If the player bets both and the player gets a blackjack composed of an ace and jack of spades, then the player will win a progressive bonus.

As the number of decks increases, the probability of ablackjack decreases, making the player's odds worse. The following table shows pertinent information about this betas explained below.

First column: Number of decks
Second column: House edge if just one bet is made
Third column: Overall reduction in house edge for each $100 in meter if both bets are made
Fourth column: Point meter must reach for bet to have zerohouse edge.

Bonus Blackjack — Version 2

This is another side bet called "Bonus Blackjack." I noticed it at the Sycuan casino near San Diego on October 25, 2009. The only bet amounts permitted were 50¢ and $1. The following table shows the pay table, probabilities, and return for a six-deck game. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 40.78% (ouch!). This assumes the player always tries for a 678 or 777 if possible, even if it violates basic strategy. The cost of such strategy deviations are not indicated.

The next table shows the house edge for various number of decks.

Progressive Blackjack

As the name implies this is a blackjack side bet with aprogressive jackpot. For an optional $1 the blackjack playermay see back $3 to the progressive jackpot, which starts at$25,000. I saw this side bet at the New York New York casinowhere they had three tables tied into the same progressive.On July 30, 2001, the jackpot meter was at $35537.36. Atthis time I was told they recently put it in place andnobody had hit the jackpot yet. On August 11 the meter hadrisen to $37746.28.

Just like in Caribbean Stud the player puts the $1 forthe Progressive side bet in a slot. Before dealing a newhand the dealer presses a button, the dollars vanish, and alight designates who made the bet. The following table showswhat each winning hand pays, the probability (based on sixdecks), and the contribution to the return.

The following table shows the return based on a meter of$35537.36, the amount the last time I observed it.

The above table shows an expected return of 56.10% perdollar bet, or a house edge of 43.90%. The general formulafor the return is 47.01% plus 2.56% for each $10,000 in themeter. To have no house edge the meter would need to reach$207287.85. Also note there are no basic strategy deviationsfor this side bet. If the player gets two aces he shouldsplit anyway, which guarantees two more cards.

It is unclear to me what events cause the meter to go upand down. Sometimes the meter goes up by 28 cents for each$1 bet made. According to the Mikohn's web site the houseedge is 22% .If this is the case then the meter contribution rate is24.60%. Mikohn also mentions that part of each dollar goesto a higher reseed of the next jackpot. So 24.60% would bedivided between the current meter and the next one. Based onthis contribution rate the average jackpot when won would be$121,225.86.

Mikohn, the owners of this side bet, keep a list ofcasinos that offer this side bet >here .

Twin Blackjack

Twin blackjack is not a side bet, but a variation of the game of blackjack. I saw the game at the Stardust in August, 2001. Each position has two betting spots. If the player makes a bet in both of them he will play out two hands against the dealer's up card. In the event the player gets two blackjacks (called twin blackjacks) they both shall pay 2-1. If the player gets two identical blackjacks (called identical twin blackjacks) both shall pay 4-1.

The following table shows what this is worth to theplayer.

The lower right cell in the table shows the twinblackjack rules add about 0.1133% to the players return.However as usual with novelty games you give more than youget back. In this case the player may NOT double after asplit and the number of splits per hand is lowered from 3 to2. Under the normal Stardust 6-deck rules the house edge is0.4066%. Under these rules, not including the twin blackjackbonuses, the house edge is 0.5527%. Overall the house edgeis 0.4394%, 0.0328% higher than the conventional rules.

Perfect Pairs

Perfect Pairs is a blackjack side bet found in casinos in Australia, Macau, and London. It pays if the player's first two cards are a pair. The following table shows the specifics. A"perfect pair" is two identical cards (like two ace of spades). A "colored pair" is two cards of the same rank andcolor (like the ace of spades and ace of clubs). There are four pay tables that I am aware of, which are referred to as A to D below. The following four tables show how the odds of each pay table.

The next table shows the expected return under all four pay tables, according to the number of decks.

Bonanza Blackjack

Bonanza Blackjack is a side bet found on a fullyelectronic 6-deck game at the Boulder Station in Las Vegas.If the player has any 20 (including a soft 20) and thedealer has a 10-point card the player will win something.This is a $1 side bet, no more and no less.

The lower right cell shows a house edge of 18.19%.

Hi/Low

This is a simple pair of side bets I noticed at theCasablanca in Mesquite, Nevada. The player simply bets ifhis first card will be higher or lower than the dealer's upcard. In the event the two cards are the same rank, exceptaces, the tie shall go to the dealer. Two aces push. Thegame I saw it on was 6-decks but here is the house edge forall numbers of decks.

2 Through 6

*: includes soft 19 and soft 20

The maximum bet allowed is the lesser of $50 and the blackjack bet.

Jack Magic

Jack Magic is a Shufflemaster side bet that has been seen at the Spirit Mountain casino in GrandeRonde, Oregon. It is played on a 5-deck blackjack game with a continuous shuffler. Wins are based on the player's initial two cards and the dealer's up card, thus no basic strategy changes are necessary. The following table shows the probability and return for each win. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 20.06%.

Match the Dealer

Match the Dealer is a side bet found in both blackjack and Spanish 21. The player wins for each of his initial two cards that match the dealer's up card. Matches in rank only pay less than a match in rank and suit. The following tables show the various versions I am aware of.

Blackjack Only

Some casinos offer a simple side bet that pays from 15 to 19 to 1 for a player blackjack. It is also possible for the bet to be based on a dealer blackjack, or both bets may be available. The Cal Neva in Reno, where the picture above was taken, pays 17 to 1. There is no particular name for this and I think it is a "common domain" bet, meaning nobody owns the idea so no royalties are required.

The following table shows the house edge for 1 to 8 decks and a payoff of 15 to 19 to 1.

Lucky Lucky

Lucky Lucky is a side bet based on the player's first two cards and the dealer's up card. It can be found at various casinos in Las Vegas and Alberta, Canada. The following tables shows the various winning hands, probability, payoff, and contribution to the total return, based on a six deck game. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 2.66%, one of the lowest for any side bet.

Bonus Spin

Bonus Spin is a side bet in which the player gets to spin a wheel if he gets a blackjack. Also, a hand with at least one ace, but not a blackjack, pays 1 to 1. The prizes on the wheel are 5x, 15x, 25x, 20x, 10x, and 100x, where the x represents the bet amount. All wins are on a to one basis. Assuming all wins were equally likely the average win would be 29.17x, resulting in a player edge of 63.4%. Obviously the stops on the prize wheel where not equally weighted. I asked the table games manager what the average win was and he said it was right around 14. As the table below shows this results in a house edge of 8.63%, based on six decks.

* Based on an estimated average win.

The next table shows the house edge for 1 to 8 decks, again assuming an average win of 14.

Wheel of Madness

Similar to Bonus Spin this is $1 side bet on a blackjack. If the player wins he gets to spin a prize wheel. According to Scott Brynen the average win is about 15 to 1, based on personal observation. Casinos will often allow bets of larger than $1, with a win of the product of the prize wheel and the bet made. The following table shows the probability of winning and house edge according to the number of decks, assuming an average win of 15 to 1.

This bet is vulnerable to card counting. Using indices of +1 for 2 to 9, 0 for 10-K, and -9 for aces, the odds swing in the player's favor at a true count (running count divided by decks remaining, rounding down) of 12. The next table shows how often this happens and the average advantage when it does in a 6-deck game according to the penetration, again assuming an average win of 15 to 1.

High Tie Bonus Blackjack

Version 1 of this is a side bet I noticed at the MGM Grand on November 26, 2005. It was played on a six-deck game.

Version 2 of this is a side bet I noticed at the Eldorado casino in Henderson on March 16, 2007. It was played on a six-deck game.

Field of Gold

Field of Gold is a side bet I'm told can be found at the Spirit Mountain Casino in Grand Ronde, Oregon. All wins are based on the player's first two cards. For side bet purposes, aces always count as one. The following return table is based on six decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 5.66%.

The following table shows the house edge for various numbers of decks.

Automatic Win/Casino Surrender

Automatic Win/Casino Surrender is an optional rule in blackjack in which the player may force the dealer to surrender when the player has a 2-card 20 against a dealer 10. This option is known by both names. In other words the player may play out his hand or settle for a win of 50% of his bet. The option may only be invoked after the dealer checks for blacjack. The Stardust in Las Vegas has been seen offering this rule in May 2005.

The following table shows the player's expected return with a 20 agaisnt a dealer 10, after the dealer checks for blackjack, according to the number of decks and composition of the 20.

The table shows the player always stands to win 55.46% to 58.53% of his bet by playing out the hand. In a typical 6-deck game the player will give up 5.91% of his bet with a 10,10 and 5.46% with an A,9 by invoking the surrender option. The bottom line is taking dealer surrender is a mistake and the player should go for the full win.

Bust It

"Bust It" is a side bet seen at the Taj Majal in Atlanic City in April, 2007. In July 2010 I saw it at the Wynn in Las Vegas. The side bet can not exceed the lesser of the blackjack bet and $25. It wins if the dealer busts on the third card. The side bet is available on ordinary blackjack and Double Attack Blackjack, which uses a Spanish deck. It does not matter whether dealer hits or stands on soft 17, because either way busting with three cards is impossible on a two-card soft 17. Card counters may be interested to know that the dealer is more likely to bust when the count is high. So at some positive count the odds would swing to the player's favor.

The following return table is for ordinary blackjack with eight decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.814%.

The next table shows the house edge for the pay table above and rules above for one to eight decks.

The following return table is for eight Spanish decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 8.006%.

The next table shows the house edge for the pay table above and rules above for one to eight Spanish decks.

Straight 8's

"Straight 8's" is a blackjack side bet seen in Calgary in March 2007. Like the Lucky Lucky, it pays based on the player's first two cards and the dealer's up card.

The following return table is based on six decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 2.696%.

The next table shows the house edge for the pay table above and rules above for one to eight decks.

2 Run 21

2 Run 21 is a blackjack side bet I noticed at the Silver Dollar casino in Seattle on June 5, 2007. It pays based on the player's first two cards, and the dealer's first two cards.

The following return table is based on six decks. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 10.236%.

The next table shows the house edge for the pay table above and rules above for one to eight decks.

In May 2008 I had an unconfirmed report that the above table is no longer the one in use. The writer claims the side bet is now based on only the player’s first two cards, and the dealer’s up card.

Winners Option

Winners Option is a side bet seen at the Las Vegas Hard Rock in August, 2007. In addition to playing blackjack normally, the player may bet on the dealer's hand. Unfortunately, you can't deliberately lose your own hand, in this case. If you bet on the dealer, as indicated on the table by a "D" arrow, then you must play according to the same rules as the dealer, never doubling or splitting, and hitting to hard 17 or soft 18. In the event both player and dealer bust, the bet will lose half.

I was not told how many decks were used, so I analyzed it by random simulation for all number of decks from one to eight. Here are the results. The right column shows the expected player loss. In a six-deck game, for example, the house edge would be 4.09%.

Winners Option web site .

21 to the River

21 to the River is a blackjack side bet I noticed at the Hard Rock in Las Vegas on March 27, 2008. The rules are as follows.

1. Player makes a blackjack and poker bet.
2. The blackjack bet shall be adjudicated according to conventional blackjack rules. In the case of the Hard Rock, these rules were six decks, dealer hits soft 17, double after split allowed, no surrender, and no resplitting aces.
3. In the event the blackjack hand busts, a five-card poker hand will be created using the card that busted the player, and the next four cards in the shoe.
4. If the poker hand shall pay according to the return table below.
5. If the player does not bust, then the poker bet will push.
6. If the player splits, the first hand, if any, that busts will start the poker hand. If none bust, the poker bet will push.

The first step to analyze this game is to determine the probability that the blackjack hand will bust, and if so, with what card. To answer this, I ran the following simulation. My simulation treats all 10-point cards the same way, so I divided that total between the four 10-point cards.

The total probability of busting comes to 13.29%. This is higher than other places on my site, which say it is 13.00%. This is because of the splitting rule.

The next table shows the probability of each poker hand, with six decks, according to the first card dealt in the hand.

The next table combines the probability of each bust card, by the poker probabilities starting with that card.

The lower right cell shows a house edge of 1.29%, per bet made. The probability of the bet resolving with a win or loss is 10.96%. The house edge, per bet resolved, is thus 1.29%/10.96% = 11.76%.

Buster Blackjack

Buster Blackjack is a side bet I noticed at the Sycuan casino, near San Diego, on November 30, 2008. The bet wins if the dealer busts, the more cards it takes, the more the player wins. The following table shows the probabilities and return for a six-deck game, where the dealer hits a soft 17. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 6.21%.

The next table shows the return, according to the number of decks, and whether the dealer hits or stands on a soft 17.

As long as I went to the trouble to analyze this bet, the next table shows a finer breakdown of the possible dealer outcomes in a six-deck game, and the dealer hits a soft 17.

Super Split

Super Split is a blackjack side bet I noticed at the Viejas casino in California on December 1, 2008. It was closed at the time, so I don't know the number of decks used. The following return table is based on a six-deck game. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 23.40%.

The next table shows the return, according to the number of decks.

Lucky Pairs

Lucky Pairs is a side bet that wins if the player’s first two cards are a pair. Many baccarat tables also offer this bet. I understand it can be found in blackjack at some casinos in South Africa, where they pay 11 to 1. I do not know the number of decks used there.

The following table shows the house edge for 1 to 8 decks and various wins.

If d is the number of decks, the probability of a pair is (4*d-1)/(52*d-1).

Kings Bounty

The next table shows the house edge for various numbers of decks, assuming no change in the pay table.

Perfect Charlie

"Perfect Charlie" is a side bet seen at the Fort McDowell casino in Arizona. Here are the rules.

• Six decks.
• Pays based on the player's first 3 to 5 cards on his initial hand.
• All winning pays must start with the first card.
• The player is only eligible for the highest qualifying win.
• Busting does not void any win.
• All pays are on a "for one" basis, meaning the player does not keep his original bet, even if he wins.
• The bet is only available for 25 or 50 cents.

The lower right cell shows a return of 61.03%, for a house edge of 38.97% (ouch!).

In Between

Wizard of Vegas

The side bet plays like Red Dog. Here are the specific rules.

• Unknown number of decks. My analysis below is based on six decks.
• Player may make a side wager that the dealer's up card will fall between the ranks of the player's first two cards.
• For purposes of the side bet, aces are high only.
• If player's first two cards and dealer's up card form a three of a kind, then player wins 30 to 1.
• If the player wins with a spread of 1 (one rank between player's two ranks), then player will win 12 to 1.
• If the player wins with a spread of 2, then player will win 6 to 1.
• If the player wins with a spread of 3, then player will win 4 to 1.
• If the player wins with a spread of 4 or more, then player will win 1 to 1.
• Otherwise, the player will lose.

The following table shows a house edge of 3.40% with six decks.

In Between — Six Decks
Event	Pays	Permutations	Probability	Return
Trips	30	157872	0.005248	0.157453
Spread 1	12	304128	0.010111	0.121328
Spread 2	6	552960	0.018383	0.110298
Spread 3	4	746496	0.024817	0.099268
Spread 4+	1	6303744	0.209567	0.209567
Loss	-1	22014720	0.731874	-0.731874
Total		30079920	1	-0.033961

The next table shows the house edge according to the number of decks.

In Between — House Edge
Decks	House Edge
1	8.34%
2	5.70%
4	4.01%
5	3.64%
6	3.40%
8	3.08%

Another analysis of this bet, based on eight decks, can be found at miplet's blackjack side bet docs .

3 Card Hard Hand

The 3 Card Hard Hand is a side bet I noticed at the Boulder Station in Las Vegas on September 16, 2010. Much like the Lucky Lucky, it pays based on the player's first two cards and the dealer's up card. Aces may count as 1 or 11 points. The following table shows the pay table, probability of each win, and contribution to the total return, based on a six-deck game. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 4.27%.

3 Card Hard Hand — Six Decks
Event	Pays	Permutations	Probability	Return
Suited 21	27512	27512	0.005488	0.137200
Unsuited 21	421200	421200	0.084016	0.168032
17-20	1410056	1410056	0.281262	0.281262
Loser	3154552	3154552	0.629234	-0.629234
Total	-0.042745	-0.042745	0.000000	-0.042740

The next table shows the house edge according to the number of decks.

3 Card Hard Hand — House Edge
Decks	House Edge
1	3.87%
2	4.13%
3	4.21%
4	4.24%
5	4.26%
6	4.27%
7	4.28%
8	4.29%

Block

The Block bet is based on the player's first two cards and the dealer's up card. As of this writing (Nov. 2010) it can be found in South Africa, Egypt, Latvia, Estonia, Ireland, and Morocco. The bet wins if the dealer's up card matches the suit of one of the player's cards, and the player's card is higher. There are higher pays if the player's cards are a pair, suited, or both. Here is how the various winning hands are defined.

• Ultimate Block®: A Block consisting of two cards both of the same rank, both higher than and both of same suit as the dealer's card.
• Pair Block™: A Block consisting of two cards of the same rank, both higher than, and one of them the same suit as, the dealer's card.
• Flush Block™: A Block consisting of two cards of the same suit and one/both cards are higher and in the same suit as the dealer's card.
• Normal Block™: A Block consisting of one card higher and in the same suit as the dealer's card.
• Push: If one of the Player's cards matches the Dealer’s card in both rank and suit, then is a push.

Here are return tables for 2, 6, and 8 decks. The pay tables were provided to me by the game maker.

Block — Two Decks
Event	Pays	Permutations	Probability	Return
Ultimate Block®	60	1,248	0.001142	0.068532
Pair Block®	10	14,976	0.013706	0.137065
Flush Block®	5	39,104	0.035789	0.178945
Normal Block®	2	179,712	0.164477	0.328955
Push	0	18,720	0.017133	0.000000
Loser	-1	838,864	0.767752	-0.767752
Total	0	1,092,624	1.000000	-0.054255

Block — Six Decks
Event	Pays	Permutations	Probability	Return
Ultimate Block®	35	56,160	0.001867	0.065346
Pair Block®	10	404,352	0.013443	0.134426
Flush Block®	5	1,100,736	0.036594	0.182969
Normal Block®	2	4,852,224	0.161311	0.322622
Push	0	848,640	0.028213	0.000000
Loser	-1	22,817,808	0.758573	-0.758573
Total	0	30,079,920	1.000000	-0.053210

Block — Eight Decks
Event	Pays	Permutations	Probability	Return
Ultimate Block®	35	139,776	0.001956	0.068448
Pair Block®	10	958,464	0.013410	0.134102
Flush Block®	5	2,622,464	0.036692	0.183458
Normal Block®	2	11,501,568	0.160922	0.321844
Push	0	2,114,112	0.029579	0.000000
Loser	-1	54,136,576	0.757441	-0.757441
Total	0	71,472,960	1.000000	-0.049590

The next table shows the pay tables available for 1 to 8 decks and the house edge.

Block — Eight Decks
Decks	Normal Block	Flush Block	Pair Block	Ultimate Block	House Edge
1	2 to 1	5 to 1	15 to 1	N/A	5.88%
2	2 to 1	5 to 1	10 to 1	60 to 1	5.43%
3	2 to 1	5 to 1	10 to 1	50 to 1	4.52%
4	2 to 1	5 to 1	10 to 1	40 to 1	5.21%
5	2 to 1	5 to 1	10 to 1	35 to 1	5.61%
6	2 to 1	5 to 1	10 to 1	35 to 1	5.32%
7	2 to 1	5 to 1	10 to 1	35 to 1	5.11%
8	2 to 1	5 to 1	10 to 1	35 to 1	4.96%

More information is available about this bet at the casinoholdempoker.com .

Hit and Run

The Hit and Run is a progressive side bet I first noticed at the Suncoast in Las Vegas on November 3, 2011. It is a $1 bet that pays if the dealer gets a blackjack or at least five cards. For purposes of the total dealer cards, all cards count, including a bust card, if there was one.

To analyze this bet I first looked at the probability of each possible event, by the number of decks. The following two tables show those probabilities, according to whether the dealer hits or stands on a soft 17.

Hit and Run Probabilities — Dealer Hits on Soft 17
Event	1 deck	2 decks	4 decks	5 decks	6 decks	8 decks
8+ cards	0.00000553	0.00001250	0.00001759	0.00001875	0.00001956	0.00002060
7 cards	0.00019242	0.00028462	0.00033818	0.00034948	0.00035712	0.00036680
6 cards	0.00345798	0.00408065	0.00439796	0.00446180	0.00450443	0.00455777
5 cards	0.03434820	0.03581484	0.03652738	0.03666828	0.03676193	0.03687865
BJ	0.04826546	0.04779686	0.04756596	0.04752005	0.04748949	0.04745134
Loss	0.91373042	0.91201053	0.91115293	0.91098163	0.91086748	0.91072483

Hit and Run Probabilities — Dealer Stands on Soft 17
Event	1 deck	2 decks	4 decks	5 decks	6 decks	8 decks
8+ cards	0.00000399	0.00000882	0.00001238	0.00001320	0.00001377	0.00001451
7 cards	0.00015154	0.00022623	0.00027019	0.00027951	0.00028582	0.00029381
6 cards	0.00298450	0.00354247	0.00382789	0.00388539	0.00392379	0.00397187
5 cards	0.03168991	0.03307633	0.03375033	0.03388366	0.03397228	0.03408275
BJ	0.04826546	0.04779686	0.04756596	0.04752005	0.04748949	0.04745134
Loss	0.91690461	0.91534928	0.91457324	0.91441819	0.91431485	0.91418571

The next two tables show the returns for all non-progressive wins. All wins are on a "for one" basis, meaning the player does not keep his original bet if he wins. The table below shows, for example, that in a two-deck game, where the dealer hits a soft 17, the non-progressive wins return 57.24%.

Hit and Run Returns — Dealer Hits on Soft 17
Event	Pays	1 deck	2 decks	4 decks	5 decks	6 decks	8 decks
7 cards	100	0.01924185	0.02846213	0.03381830	0.03494830	0.03571243	0.03667967
6 cards	25	0.08644947	0.10201621	0.10994908	0.11154508	0.11261064	0.11394429
5 cards	7	0.24043741	0.25070388	0.25569165	0.25667798	0.25733348	0.25815057
BJ	4	0.19306184	0.19118745	0.19026384	0.19008019	0.18995795	0.18980538
Loss	0	0.00000000	0.00000000	0.00000000	0.00000000	0.00000000	0.00000000
Total		0.53919057	0.57236967	0.58972287	0.59325155	0.59561450	0.59857990

Hit and Run Returns — Dealer Stands on Soft 17
Event	Pays	1 deck	2 decks	4 decks	5 decks	6 decks	8 decks
7 cards	100	0.01515360	0.02262332	0.02701911	0.02795094	0.02858187	0.02938144
6 cards	25	0.07461250	0.08856179	0.09569721	0.09713469	0.09809477	0.09929678
5 cards	7	0.22182935	0.23153433	0.23625234	0.23718563	0.23780594	0.23857923
BJ	4	0.19306184	0.19118745	0.19026384	0.19008019	0.18995795	0.18980538
Loss	0	0.00000000	0.00000000	0.00000000	0.00000000	0.00000000	0.00000000
Total		0.50465729	0.53390689	0.54923250	0.55235145	0.55444054	0.55706282

The next two tables show how much the return increases per $10,000 in the meter, as well as the "breakeven-point," which is how high the meter would need to reach to have a 100% return, for a statistically fair bet.

Hit and Run Value per $10,000 in Meter and Breakeven Point — Dealer Hit on Soft 17
Metric	1 deck	2 decks	4 decks	5 decks	6 decks	8 decks
Return per $10000 in meter	0.05526440	0.12496464	0.17587273	0.18753475	0.19559878	0.206010727
Breakeven	$83,382.68	$34,220.11	$23,328.07	$21,689.23	$20,674.23	$19,485.40

Hit and Run Value per $10,000 in Meter and Breakeven Point — Dealer Stands on Soft 17
Metric	1 deck	2 decks	4 decks	5 decks	6 decks	8 decks
Return per $10000 in meter	0.03989356	0.08816667	0.12381517	0.13203645	0.13773304	0.145102266
Breakeven	$124,166.07	$52,865.00	$36,406.48	$33,903.41	$32,349.50	$30,525.86

When I saw this bet at the Suncoast it was on a two-deck game, where the dealer hits a soft 17. The meter on November 3, 2011 was at $8,888.44. Thus, the return at the time was 0.53919057 + (8888.44/10000)×0.124964643 = 68.34%.

Bet the Bust

Bet the Bust is a side bet I noticed at the Palace Station on December 29, 2011. The bet is offered after the initial two cards are dealt to each player and the dealer, with one dealer up card exposed, as usual. If the dealer's exposed card is a 10 or ace the dealer checks for blackjack before offering the Bet the Bust wager.

The Bet the Bust pays if the dealer busts. The probability of the dealer busting depends on his up card, thus so do the odds.

At the Palace Station the table with this side bet used six decks and the dealer hit a soft 17. The following table shows what the Bet the Bust paid, the probability of winning, and the expected return, according to the dealer's up card. The right column shows the lowest house edge is on the 8 at 2.52%.

Bet the Bust -- Six Decks -- Dealer Hits Soft 17
Up Card	Pays	Probability	Expected Return
A	3.5	0.201281	-0.094236
2	1.5	0.356661	-0.108348
3	1.5	0.376958	-0.057605
4	1	0.398470	-0.203060
5	1	0.419632	-0.160736
6	1	0.439259	-0.121482
7	2.5	0.261936	-0.083224
8	3	0.243693	-0.025228
9	3	0.229242	-0.083032
10	3	0.230239	-0.079044

The next table shows the probability of the dealer busting according to the number of decks, assuming the dealer hits on a soft 17.

Dealer Bust Probability -- Dealer Hits on Soft 17
Up Card	1 Deck	2 Decks	3 Decks	4 Decks	5 Decks	6 Decks	7 Decks	8 Decks
A	0.204574	0.202556	0.201912	0.201595	0.201406	0.201281	0.201192	0.201125
2	0.356345	0.356527	0.356593	0.356627	0.356647	0.356661	0.356670	0.356677
3	0.378075	0.377460	0.377218	0.377090	0.377011	0.376958	0.376920	0.376891
4	0.405796	0.401328	0.399887	0.399176	0.398751	0.398470	0.398269	0.398119
5	0.429961	0.423668	0.421634	0.420629	0.420030	0.419632	0.419348	0.419136
6	0.437756	0.438754	0.439022	0.439144	0.439214	0.439259	0.439291	0.439314
7	0.259854	0.261143	0.261546	0.261742	0.261859	0.261936	0.261990	0.262031
8	0.238627	0.241630	0.242656	0.243173	0.243485	0.243693	0.243842	0.243954
9	0.233442	0.230898	0.230066	0.229653	0.229406	0.229242	0.229125	0.229037
10	0.232499	0.231144	0.230692	0.230465	0.230329	0.230239	0.230174	0.230125

The next table shows the expected return according to the number of decks, assuming the dealer hits on a soft 17, and the same pay table as at the Palace Station, indicated above.

Expected Return -- Dealer Hits on Soft 17
Up Card	1 Deck	2 Decks	3 Decks	4 Decks	5 Decks	6 Decks	7 Decks	8 Decks
A	-0.079417	-0.088498	-0.091396	-0.092823	-0.093673	-0.094236	-0.094636	-0.094938
2	-0.109138	-0.108683	-0.108518	-0.108433	-0.108383	-0.108348	-0.108325	-0.108308
3	-0.054813	-0.056350	-0.056955	-0.057275	-0.057473	-0.057605	-0.057700	-0.057773
4	-0.188408	-0.197344	-0.200226	-0.201648	-0.202498	-0.203060	-0.203462	-0.203762
5	-0.140078	-0.152664	-0.156732	-0.158742	-0.159940	-0.160736	-0.161304	-0.161728
6	-0.124488	-0.122492	-0.121956	-0.121712	-0.121572	-0.121482	-0.121418	-0.121372
7	-0.090511	-0.086000	-0.084589	-0.083903	-0.083494	-0.083224	-0.083035	-0.082891
8	-0.045492	-0.033480	-0.029376	-0.027308	-0.026060	-0.025228	-0.024632	-0.024184
9	-0.066232	-0.076408	-0.079736	-0.081388	-0.082376	-0.083032	-0.083500	-0.083852
10	-0.070004	-0.075424	-0.077232	-0.078140	-0.078684	-0.079044	-0.079304	-0.079500

It is not difficult to see that this side bet would be very countable. However, for now, you're on your own with that.

Bust Me

I have an unconfirmed report that this side bet was seen at Freddie's Club in Fife, Washington in February, 2012. It is a side bet that the player will bust on the next card. The bet may be made on player totals of 12 to 16. The odds a winning bet pays depends on the player's total as shown in the table below.

The following table shows the pertinent information for Bust Me, based on a two deck game. This table assumes the player makes this bet only on his original two cards.

Bust Me — Two Decks
Player Total	Pays	Probability	Expected Return
12	2	0.308453	-0.074642
13	1.5	0.385154	-0.037115
14	1	0.461451	-0.077099
15	0.5	0.537582	-0.193627
16	0.5	0.607843	-0.088235

The next table shows the house edge according to the player's total and number of decks.

Bust Me — House Edge for One to Eight Decks
Player Total	1 Deck	2 Decks	4 Decks	5 Decks	6 Decks	8 Decks
12	7.25%	7.46%	7.58%	7.60%	7.61%	7.63%
13	3.57%	3.71%	3.78%	3.79%	3.80%	3.81%
14	7.76%	7.71%	7.70%	7.70%	7.69%	7.69%
15	19.50%	19.36%	19.30%	19.28%	19.27%	19.26%
16	10.00%	8.82%	8.25%	8.14%	8.06%	7.97%

It is not difficult to see that this side bet would be vulnerable to card counters. I'll leave that as an exercise for the readers (I hate it when people say that!).

Cowboys & Cowgirls

I noticed this side bet at Arizona Charlie's on Decatur on February 23, 2012. It is a pair of bets, mostly paying based on the color of the dealer's up card. However, there are exceptions for kings, queens, and threes. The following two return tables show the odds of all possible outcomes. The number of decks does not matter.

Cowboys
Event	Pays	Cards	Probability	Expected Return
Red Queen or King	1.5	4	0.076923	0.115385
Any other red, except 3	1	20	0.384615	0.384615
Black or 3	-1	28	0.538462	-0.538462
Total		52	1.000000	-0.038462




Cowgirls
Event	Pays	Cards	Probability	Expected Return
Black King or Queen	1.5	4	0.076923	0.115385
Any other black, except 3	1	20	0.384615	0.384615
Red or 3	-1	28	0.538462	-0.538462
Total		52	1.000000	-0.038462


This is another obviously countable side bet. I'll leave that details of that to you.

Sign seen at the Silver Dollar casino near Seattle in June 2007. It would read "Side-bets are strictly prohibited", if it were spelled correctly.

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If you are interested in the analysis of blackjack side bets, please see my Gaming Math course notes on that topic. Here are some links.

• blackjack side bets part 1.
• blackjack side bets part 2.
• March 8, 2005 homework questions..
• March 8, 2005 homework answers..
• March 15, 2005 homework questions..
• March 15, 2005 homework answers..

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