Card Counting

Last Update: Oct 27, 2009

Let me say loud and clear that card counting is hard andis not as rewarding as television and the movies make it outto be. If it were an easy way to make money, then everyone wouldbe doing it.

If you do not know the basic strategy, trying to countcards is highly ill-advised. Experienced card counters stillplay by the basic strategy the great majority of the time.There can be no short cut around learning the basicstrategy, those who attempt card counting without a firmfoundation in the basic strategy are making a bigmistake.

To be a successful counter you have to be able to countdown a deck fast and memorize large tables of numbers aswell as make it look like you're just a casual player.Furthermore, with today's rules, a realistic advantage thecounter will have is only 0.5% to 1.5%. You will not winmoney slowly and gradually but your bankroll will go up anddown like a roller coaster in the short run. Only in thelong run, over hundreds of hours of playing, can you count onwinning.

The underlying principle behind card counting is that adeck rich in tens and aces is good for the player, a deckrich in small cards is good for the dealer. When the counter knows the odds are in his favor, he will bet more, and adjust his playing strategy to stand, double, and split in some plays where basic strategy says to stand. All the options the player has at his disposal favor the player even more when the deck is ten and ace rich. Here is a list and a brief reason why.

Standing: The player may stand on stiff totals of 12 to 16, and the dealer may not. In ten-rich shoes, hitting stiff hands becomes more dangerous, favoring the more conservative player strategy.

Insurance: On average, when the dealer has an ace up, the remaining cards in blackjack will be 30.87% tens (based on a six-deck game), making insurance a bad bet. However, if the probability gets above 33.33%, it becomes a good bet. Counters know when the remaining cards are ten-rich, and make powerful insurance bets at those times.

Doubling: Usually when the player doubles he wants a ten. In ten-rich shoes, the player makes better double downs, getting closer to 21.

Blackjack: Both player and dealer will see more blackjacks, but the player gets paid 3 to 2, and the dealer does not.

Surrender: The alternative to surrendering is much worse in ten-rich shoes. If the alternative is hitting, the player is more likely to bust. If the player would otherwise stand, due to the high count, the dealer is still more likely to get a 10. While the counter will surrender more in high counts, the savings will be greater.

Splits: The player is usually splitting high cards and/or off of a weak dealer card. Either way, a ten-rich shoe helps the player get higher totals, and increases the probability of the dealer busting.

I’m working on an in-depth study of how these effects break down. The contribution to each factor depends on the rules, deck penetration, and bet spread. However, based on average conditions in a six-deck shoe, my initial results break down the benefits of counting as follows.

The probability for insurance was taken from Don Schlesinger's "Illustrious 18"� list, as found in Blackjack Attack . The rest of the breakdown is mine.

To gauge the richness of the deck in good cards the player will keep track of the cards the are already played.Strategies vary but all assign a point value to each card. For example the hi-lo count assigns a value of +1 to 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6, and -1 to tens and aces. Everything else is 0, or neutral. At the beginning of a deckor shoe the count is 0. Then the counter constantly adds andsubtracts from the count according to the cards played. Thisrunning total is called the "running count." A positivecount means that a disproportional number of small cardshave already been played which means the deck is rich inlarge cards. To determine the "true count" divide therunning count by the number of decks left to be played, orin some strategies the number of half decks. This will tellyou the relative richness of the deck in good cards.

The true count is used in two ways, to determine how muchto bet and how to play your hand. Unless it is obvious, everysituation has a line in which you should play one way if thecount is above the line and another if below. For example, a12 against a 6 may dictate that you stand if the true countis +1 or greater and hit if the true count is less than +1.The counter will also bet more when the deck is rich in goodcards.

A problem arises when it comes to treating aces. Theplayer should bet more when the deck is rich in aces sincethey add to the probability of getting a blackjack. However,when it comes to playing your hand, the number of aces leftis not nearly as important as the number of tens, so it isdesirable, but not necessary, to distinguish between tensand aces. Some card counting strategies keep a side count ofaces. In the Hi-Opt I and Revere Plus/Minus aces are countedseparately and only considered when making the wager. Thisis a more accurate and powerful way to play than assigning anegative value to aces and not keeping a side count, as somestrategies do. Yet many people feel that for the beginner itis too confusing to keep two counts. A player is more likelyto make mistakes keeping two counts and that costs money.The efficiency of a strategy that does not keep a side countof aces is only modestly less but you likely will gain morefrom fewer mistakes made. Different experts fall in variousplaces in the spectrum in terms of what to recommend for thebeginner. The Zen Count takes the middle ground and givesaces a value of -1 and tens -2. Personally I have tried bothand would recommend against a count that requires a sidecount of aces to a person ready to take up card counting.The Uston Advanced Plus/Minus is a good strategy that doesnot involve an ace side count and can be found in the bookMillionDollar Blackjack . How well you know a counting strategyis much more important than which strategy you know.

Legally speaking, the player may play blackjack any way hewants without cheating or using a computer, and the casinosmay do anything from making conditions unfavorable tobarring, in an effort to stop anyone who they deem has anadvantage over the game. Much of the challenge of cardcounting is avoiding suspicion that you are anything but anormal non-counting player. The most obvious indication thatsomebody is counting is that they make a substantialincrease in bet size after a lot of small cards leave thetable. Although the greater the factor by which you canincrease your bet the greater your odds of winning, morethan doubling your last bet is a fast way to arouse "heat"from the dealer and pit boss. Usually when casinos employeesrealize you are counting, they will either shuffle the cardswhenever you increase your bet, essentially removing anyadvantage, or ask you to leave.

This is only scraping the surface of the subject of cardcounting. I suggest the following pages of mine.

• Hi-Lo Count.
• The Ace-Five Count, possibly the easiest way to count cards.
• Book review section, for suggestions on good blackjackbooks.