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Reason #2 why the Wizard likes Bodog:
No-hassle practice games
Most online casinos spend more effort trying to separate you from your money than they do trying to give you a good experience. They have all kinds of popup windows, they usually make you download their software, and if do they offer play-in-browser games then you have to register an account before you can play. And if you do register then they start sending you emails trying to get you to deposit real money. But Bodog is different. They have no popup windows at all, and their practice games play right in your browser, with no download, and no registration required. You don't even have to give up your email address. It couldn't be simpler: Just one click and you're playing the game. I wish all online casinos showed this much respect for their players. Other casinos practically ask for your first born child to play for free. Meanwhile Bodog is patient and does not twist anybody's arm to play for real money. You can play as long as you like for free with no obligation. The real-money games are available if that's your preference, but if not, you can play the free practice games for as long as you like without hassle. (Visit Bodog) One click and you're in:
No popups, no download, no registration, no B.S., just the game. |
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Ask the Wizard: Blackjack Side Bets| Asked & Answered |
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Spirit Mountain Casino in Grand Ronde Oregon added a side bet in the last 24 hours called "Field Gold 21." It resolves before the rest of the hand begins and concerns the first two cards dealt to a player. The side bet can be between 1 and 25 dollars. The pay table follows.
- Ace, Jack Suited = 25 - 1
- 2 Aces = 10 - 1
- 3 or 4 Total = 3 - 1
- 9 or 10 Total = 2 - 1
- 11 or 12 Total = 1 - 1
- Any Blackjack = 3 - 2
Aces always count as 1 and 10's and faces count as 10. What is the house advantage? If I keep an Aces and Fives count is there a positive count where the possible remaining aces make the bet a positive proposition? Would counting remaining aces divided by remaining decks be better? – Stan from Beaverton, Oregon
You didn’t tell me the number of decks, but assuming six the house edge is 5.66%. Here is the return table.
| Field of Gold - Six Decks | ||||
| Event | Pays | Permutations | Probability | Return |
| Ace/jack suited | 25 | 144 | 0.002968 | 0.074202 |
| Two aces | 10 | 276 | 0.005689 | 0.056888 |
| 3 or 4 total | 3 | 1428 | 0.029434 | 0.088301 |
| 9 or 10 total | 2 | 4884 | 0.100668 | 0.201336 |
| Any other blackjack | 1.5 | 2160 | 0.044521 | 0.066782 |
| 11 to 12 total | 1 | 6612 | 0.136285 | 0.136285 |
| All other | -1 | 33012 | 0.680435 | -0.680435 |
| Total | 48516 | 1 | -0.056641 | |
Just eyeballing it, I would say aces would be the best card to track, betting into an ace-rich deck. My advice would be to count aces as –12 and all other cards as +1.
February 7, 2007As I read your analysis of the Royal Match side bet in blackjack, am I correct that your odds are for the first hand of the shoe? If so, wouldn't the real-world odds of an easy match be tilted a bit more toward the player? It seems to me that if the suits get unbalanced in any direction it would slightly lessen the house edge, and the suits will certainly fluctuate through the shoe. - Frank from Michigan
This is not true. The remaining deck needs to be exhibit more than a certain degree of skewness for the odds to swing to the player's favor. Consider a hypothetical side that pays 3 to 1 for any suited pair in a one-deck game. Of the top of the deck the probability of winning is 4*combin(13,2)/combin(52,2) = 23.53%. However if you burn two cards of different suits the probability of winning goes down to 2*(combin(13,2)+combin(12,2))/combin(50,2) = 23.51%. If you burn two cards of the same suit the probability of winning increases to (3*combin(13,2)+combin(11,2))/combin(52,2) = 23.59%. If one card of each rank were removed the probability of winning would go down to 4*combin(12,2)/combin(48,2) = 23.40%. What all this shows is that if cards are removed at a uniform distribution the odds of winning go down, however at a very skewed distribution the odds go up. As the deck is played down sometimes your odds get better, and sometimes worse, but in the long run they average out and stay at a 23.53% chance of winning. Oct. 26, 2005Is the Super Sevens side bet countable? - Clem
Yes! If you count sevens as -12 and all other cards as +1 then the odds on the side bet swing to the player's advantage with a true count (running count divided by remaining decks) of 5 or greater. According to my simulations in six-deck game with no three-card guarantee and 75% penetration the true count is 5 or greater 23.2% of the time and the player advantage at these times averages 27.3%. In the game with a three-card guarantee the average advantage goes up to 29.1%. Dec. 20, 2004
Wheel of Madness is another one of those silly blackjack side bets. It is not included in your ever growing list of exotics. Is it proprietary information that keeps you from its analysis?
The wheel in Wheel of Madness is weighted. In other words it is designed to stop on the lower prizes more often. Without knowing the exact weights I can't analyze it. I have tried to get the weights from casinos and the manufacturer but alas have had no luck. March 6, 2004
The Hollywood casino in Tunica started offering a FREE progressive side bet on two $5 tables. The rules are six decks and dealer hits a soft 17, all other rules are standard. They swear there are no rule changes to the game (Dealer hits, DAS, 4 splits, 6 decks). Suited sevens of diamonds gets the progressive, which starts at $1,000. All other triple sevens pay $50. So how high would the progressive need to be to get to breakeven?
The probability of three seven of diamonds is combin(6,3)/combin(312,3) = 0.00000398937. The probability of three unsuited sevens is (combin(24,3)-combin(6,3))/combin(312,3) = 0.000399735. According to my blackjack calculator the house edge is 0.6233%. The expected loss on a $5 bet would be 3.12 cents. Just the value of the $50 for three unsuited sevens is $50*0.000399735=2.00 cents. To make up the other 1.12 cents the meter would need to reach $2802. Feb. 27, 2004
Mr. Wizard, I just recently played on a Casino Boat that had a Bust Bet at the Blackjack table. You could place this even money bet at anytime after seeing the dealers' up card. Is this a bad bet and what might the odds be? Thank You.
This is a sucker bet. The most likely time the dealer will bust is with a 6 up. However even then the dealer will only bust 42% of the time, give or take depending on the exact rules, for a house edge of 16%. July 14, 2003
Microgaming has a new blackjack game called "Lucky Sevens" where you get bonuses for having your first card a 7, first two cards 7's, and first 3 cards 7's. It also has a progressive pot which you win if you get all 3 7 of diamonds. The bad part is that you have to ante $1 for each hand. You have no choice on this if you play the game. My question is: at what size progressive jackpot does this become a positive expectation game. Thanks! - Bryan Moore from Austin, Texas
Good question. "Triple Sevens Blackjack" is played with five decks with a $1 mandatory side bet. Following is the side bet return table, based on a meter of $41,227 (the amount on August 31, 2002).
Microgaming Triple Sevens Side Bet
Hand
Permutations
Probability
Pays
Return
1 seven
1238400
0.07128
5 for 1
0.3564
2 unsuited 7's
72000
0.004144
25 for 1
0.103605
2 suited 7's
19200
0.001105
50 for 1
0.055256
3 unsuited 7's
6600
0.00038
250 for 1
0.094971
3 suited 7's
180
0.00001
1000 for 1
0.01036
3 diamond 7's
60
0.000003
41227 for 1
0.142377
Non-paying hand
16037280
0.923077
0
0
Total
17373720
1
0.76297
If the player splits two sevens the connectivity is lost and the player begins each hand with one seven for purposes of the side bet. The player should never split sevens in this game at low bet levels ($40 or less). The house edge on the side bet is 37.94%, less 3.45% for every $10,000 in the meter. When I checked at the Golden Tiger casino on August 31, 2002, the meter was at $41,227, for a return of 76.30%, or a house edge of 23.70%. For the side bet to have no house edge the meter would need to reach $109,862. This does not consider the 0.0057% cost of deviating from basic strategy by not splitting two sevens. Assuming the player is betting $2 on the blackjack hand (the minimum) the meter would need to reach $113,196 for the combined game to have no house edge. Aug. 31, 2002
I read on your web site that you recently had a chance to visit Tunica, Mississippi. I play very often at the Grand. I am sure you have heard of the side bet known as Triple 7s. I don't consider myself a good card counter or even an average one, but say no 7s had been played at all in 6 would the odds not be in my favor to play the side bet? - Austin Brown from Germantown, Tennessee
Yes, I've seen that bet in Tunica. I address it in my blackjack appendix 8. I'm sure the odds would swing to your favor if no sevens had been played deep in the shoe. However for all practical purposes they probably limit the size of the wager, either in total or relative to the blackjack wager. That rule likely keeps the counters away. I have never heard any serious discussion about it in serious blackjack forums. April 15, 2001
I have read everything you have to say about the Fortune side bet but I can't decide whether it's totally stupid to play it or not. I know the odds are long, but it's still a fun "what if" bet. If you have any thoughts about that I would love to hear them. -- Richard from ?
Gambling is supposed to be fun so if you think you get 39.5 cents worth of fun every $5 you bet, then you should play it. That is how much you will give up in the house edge (assuming no other players). Dec. 2, 2000
Q: Your analysis of various side bets like Streak, Pair Square and others was very interesting. Do you know how these new games get invented and established? Do the casinos employ guys like you to compute the probabilities? If so, are the games copyrighted in some way? Thanks. ñ Bob Pierce of Lake Charles, Louisiana
A: I could talk about this all day. Part of my income is derived from analyzing games such as these. The gaming authorities require such analysis before a game can be licensed to play. Usually these games are invented by an individual or are owned by a gaming company. After the game owner receives a license it must go through a 30-day trial period. If the trial period went well the owner can then apply for a permanent license. The entire process is very slow and it is difficult to get a casino to be the guinea pig for the trial period. Casinos are actually quite risk averse in their business decisions. Yes, the game owner will usually seek a copyright to protect others from stealing the idea. Here's more about my consulting services. July 16, 2000
Q: Here in Natchez we have a river boat casino that allows the royal match (version 1) with blackjack, using 6 decks. They also have an added bonus that if the player and dealer both get a royal match on the same hand, then the player is paid an additional $1000. How does this affect the house edge? - Robert Fowler of Natchez, Mississippi
A: This $1000 bonus lowers the house edge from 6.67% to 6.00%, assuming a $1 bet. July 2, 2000
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