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Reason #2 why the Wizard likes Bodog:
No-hassle practice games
Most online casinos spend more effort trying to separate you from your money than they do trying to give you a good experience. They have all kinds of popup windows, they usually make you download their software, and if do they offer play-in-browser games then you have to register an account before you can play. And if you do register then they start sending you emails trying to get you to deposit real money. But Bodog is different. They have no popup windows at all, and their practice games play right in your browser, with no download, and no registration required. You don't even have to give up your email address. It couldn't be simpler: Just one click and you're playing the game. I wish all online casinos showed this much respect for their players. Other casinos practically ask for your first born child to play for free. Meanwhile Bodog is patient and does not twist anybody's arm to play for real money. You can play as long as you like for free with no obligation. The real-money games are available if that's your preference, but if not, you can play the free practice games for as long as you like without hassle. (Visit Bodog) One click and you're in:
No popups, no download, no registration, no B.S., just the game. See important note about Bodog payouts & deposits. |
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See important note about Bodog payouts & deposits. |
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Ask the Wizard:|
10+6 vs 10 |
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Play |
Expected Value |
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Stand |
-.5399 |
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Hit |
-.5399 |
Although the expected value numbers are the same the applet highlights standing as the better play, presumably because it is higher beyond four decimal places. It is the same if I remove the following: A,2,3,4,5,6,8,10,10,10 to simulate 9,7 vs 10, because the player is going against the exact same neutral shoe.
It just goes to show how powerful the effect of removal is, even when just three cards in an eight-deck game. Getting back the original question, a zero count reflects a totally neutral deck after the player's two cards and dealer's up card have been accounted for. So as I just showed going into a neutral deck the odds favor standing. The reason hitting is correct in an infinite deck is because there is no effect of removal. If you accidentally hit a 16 vs 10 in a neutral shoe, and got a low card, then the dealer would have a better chance of getting a 10 in the hole. This fact is reflected in the higher expected value for standing in an 8-deck game, but would not matter in an infinite deck. For the record, here are the expected values in an infinite deck game:
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16 vs 10 - Infinite Deck |
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Play |
Expected Value |
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Stand |
-0.5404 |
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Hit |
-0.5398 |
March 10, 2005
I was wondering how the house advantage would change if you played 5 hands at a time using basic strategy blackjack and card counting at an online casino. Let me explain. I know the deck is shuffled with each hand, however you can count the cards of all hands leading up to the last hand - the 5th hand. You can then use this information to help you modify your basic strategy betting. For example, not doubling down when the count is against you or hitting when you normally should stay. Could this possibly shift the overall odds to the players advantage?
Flat betting and only five spots, I think not. However if you bet seven spots and progressively more on each spot to be played then yes. This is called depth charging and is treated lightly in the book Burning the Tables in Las Vegas by Ian Andersen. Dec. 20, 2004
First of all thanks for the great site. Is there no point in card counting if it is a single deck that is reshuffled after every hand?
You're welcome, thanks for the compliment. There is still some point, especially with a full table. However under typical single deck rules (dealer hits soft 17, no double after split) I don't think it is enough to overcome the 0.19% house edge. Dec. 13, 2004
What incentive does a dealer have to "tell on you" if he suspects you are card counting. Why would a dealer care if you are card counting or not? Doesn't it mean bigger tips for him?
Good question. If the counter were tipping then the dealer has the choice of not telling and getting more tips or tattling to get on the good side of casino management. I think it in large part comes down to the attitude of the dealer, whether he is rooting for the player or the casino. Dealers who are loyal to their employer first will probably tell, and tipping may not help. Dealers share tips so the dealer you give your tip to may only get 1% of it. Tipping cynical dealers who resent tip sharing won't buy you much cover. In my opinion dealers loyal to the casino are more likely to be women than men and Asians over any other race. One of my blackjack books goes into this in more detail but I can't remember which one. The decision to tip is hotly debated in the counting community and many counters follow the Stanford Wong philosophy of only tipping if the cover it buys you is more than in value than the tip itself. This may explain the joke that the difference between a counter and a canoe is that a canoe sometimes tips. Other counters tip anyway whether they think it buys them cover or not because they believe in tipping. Nov. 28, 2004
Do you have any comment on the Blackjack Pro device for card counting?
Interesting. Basically this looks like a two-way clicker to help the player keep track of the running count in blackjack. From what I read there is no true count conversion or index number help. Still knowing the running count and betting accordingly is much better than not counting at all. It is also a clever disguise. However be aware that using any device to help calculate the probabilities on any game in a Nevada casinos is a felony and carries a punishment comparable to bank robbery. Nov. 19, 2004
I am a casual Basic Strategy blackjack player who would like to learn a counting technique that offers positive or even expected value. I was wondering if there is a counting technique that doesn't require tracking all the cards. I'm thinking that I could take a random sample of all the cards played (say my hand) and just count the cards that have been in my hand. Hopefully, my cards are representative of all cards played and thus the count of my hand is close enough to the true running count that I can adjust my wagering accordingly. Do you feel that this could be a valid approach particularly against 6-8 deck shoes or am I just a lazy guy looking for the easy way out?
The easiest counting method is what I call the "eyeball" method, in which if you see lots of small cards come out then increase your bet, and vise versa. However this is better suited to one and two deck games. For 6 or 8 deck games I would recommend the ace/five count. This requires only counting aces and fives. According to Ken Uston in Million Dollar Blackjack this give the player an additional 0.5% with just a 1 to 3 unit bet range. That is enough to overcome the house edge is most games. Sept. 30, 2004
How many "successful" card counters, i.e. the ones who do it right, do you think are in a casino on any given night?
In would say in a large Strip type casino the number of counters who know what they are doing on a given night is in my best guess one half of a single person (or two casinos would have one person). The reason I think it is this low is in my many hundreds of hours at the blackjack tables I only spotted other counters twice. June 25, 2004
Since you are very well-known and respected for your expertise on gambling, statistics, house odds, etc, do local casinos still allow you to play at their Blackjack tables, since you obviously are an experienced counter?
It is my policy not to count in Las Vegas. Since I live here I don't want to make any enemies out of prospective clients. So I am allowed to play blackjack at all but two casinos locally. However last January I went to Reno and Lake Tahoe for a few days and was told not to play blackjack at four different casinos. May 22, 2004
Why is there so much written about card counting strategies in BJ, if they are not as rewarding "as television and the movies make it out to be"? This seems highly illogical to me and is really puzzling.
There is a lot written about card counting simply because the books sell. I suspect many people watch a movie like Rain Man and get interested in card counting. Then they buy a book and realize it is too hard or give it a try and get discouraged because they lose. Only the most patient, devoted, and well financed players stick with it. April 22, 2004
In response your last column from a player who was concerned about the dealer calling "table max" when he went from $15 to $300. It should be added to your answer that this is most likely the internal procedure of the casino as most do this when any maximum bet is placed in order to draw the supervisor's attention. Most players tend to believe the actions of a casino are directed against them when the usual reason is simply the staff are following company procedures.
Thanks for this good point. I stand corrected. Feb. 13, 2004
I was playing blackjack at the Casino Niagara, jumping from $15 to $300 using an improvised counting system of making a max bet when I saw a lot of small cards leave the deck. Both times I did this the dealer yelled "table max" and the pit crew was suddenly watching the game very closely. How close was I to getting backroomed in your opinion?
I can't speak for Canada very well but backrooming a card counter would be illegal in the United States. That tactic is only allowed in cases of cheating. However it still has been known to happen. Fortunately in such cases where the counter sued the case the counter won. If I may say I think Canada is more mellow and non-confrontational than the U.S. so I would guess the probability of getting backroomed is even lower there. Although you didn't ask about it, jumping by a factor of 20 sets off a huge red flag. Most counters who don't want to attract attention don't increase their bet by more than a factor of 2 at one time. This is also my policy, unless I feel there is no heat at all. Jan. 31, 2004
Hi, wiz. Love your site, please keep it up. I have 2 questions would like to ask.
1) Does card counting only work with blackjack? Is it useless or simply not as effective for other card games like baccarat?
2) In your blackjack card counting section, you mentioned that the Ken Uston's Plus/Minus strategy counts 3-7 as small cards. Doesn't it seem more reasonable to count 2-6 as small, and 7-9 as natural?
Thanks for the kind words. To answer question one, baccarat is not countable for all practical purposes. I have wondered about your second question myself. I used to use Uston's Plus/Minus but switched to Wong's Hi/Low. Looking back I don't think Wong's hi/low is much more powerful, but there is much more information about it. My blackjack appendix 7 shows that removing a 2 from each deck adds 0.39% to the player's return and removing a 7 only adds 0.29%. So if you must track only one the 2 is better. The Knockout Count tracks both the 2 and 7. My opinion is if you haven't taken up counting yet then the 2-6 Hi/Low is the marginally better way to go, however if you already use something else you should probably stick with that. Jan. 31, 2004
Not that I plan to, but if I did want to card count, wouldn't it be easier and just as effective to count only the high cards as opposed to tracking the hi's vs. the lo's? Assuming you are good at estimating how many cards were left in the shoe.
No, it would be both harder and less powerful to only count the large cards. You may misunderstand how the plus/minus counts work. The high cards count as -1 and the low cards as +1 and you keep a running total as you play. So most cards offset each other and the running count tends to stay close to zero. So you are only keeping track of one number. If you only tracked high cards the total would run high and then you would have to carefully divide it by the number of remaining cards. Even assuming you were good at estimating the number of remaining cards the division would be difficult to do well. Jan. 4, 2004
The index number of 16 against a 10 in most blackjack counting systems is zero. So if the deck were completely neutral you should stand, because you stand if the count is equal or exceeds the index number. Yet the basic strategy tables tell us to hit. This seems to be a contradiction.
Good question. My educated guess is that if the index numbers were not rounded then it would be greater than 0 but less than one half. So it is getting rounded down to zero. Making the index number 1 would result in more of a rounded error, causing players in slightly positive decks to hit when they should stand. Oct. 15, 2003
Hello, thanks for the great website. There is a lot of helpful information. I hate to bother you, but I wanted to let you know about a variation of blackjack that I played recently. I was at the Oneida Bingo & Casino in Green Bay, Wisconsin. They had a few tables that at first glance looked like 2 deck pitch blackjack. Upon further examination they were using automatic shufflers and according to the rules they listed, this game consisted of eight decks and the automatic shuffler dispensed approximately 100 cards. The game was dealt using these 100 cards. The dealer put the cut card approximately half way in the 100 card deck and then dealt. When the cut card was reached, the dealer would put the cards back in to the automatic shuffler and take 100 more cards from the machine and start dealing again. In this game you could not double down after a split, and you could split up to 3 times. I'm not sure whether the dealer stands or hits on soft 17. Thanks, Rob Seelen
Mathematically speaking this is the same as playing from an eight deck game. Players have been known to be fooled, incorrectly thinking these are double deck games. For card counting purposes the penetration is 50 out of 416, or 12.02%. May 26, 2003
As you state on your site the house edge in blackjack is very low. Maybe you should increase your bet when the dealer gets 4 or 5 cards, because the cards would likely be small and the next hand would be large card rich? - Tim Skarecky from Gurnee, Illinois
This is an oversimplified method of counting cards. Better yet survey all the cards on the table. If you see a lot of small cards, especially fives and sixes, and few large cards, especially aces, then raise your bet. If you see the opposite then lower your bet. The fewer the decks the better this will work. Better yet use an actual count system like the ace/five. Feb. 20, 2003
Is it possible to count a 6 deck shoe? - Scott Maples from Verona, USA
Yes. If you can count down one deck you can count down six. It is just a matter of counting longer between shuffles. Jan. 2, 2002
I'm pretty sure this isn't possible, but is there any way to count cards when playing blackjack in an online casino? P.S. Your site is great. Being a beginner it has given me lots of good advice. - Dustin from Austin, USA
Thanks for the compliments. Most online casinos shuffle the cards after every hand. At single deck casinos (Boss Media version 1, Microgaming, Unified Gaming) you can use the cards already on the table to alter your play sometimes. See my blackjack appendix3A for all the details. There are some casinos that play into a shoe a little way but not far, and have restrictive betting limits. I have yet to be convinced of any worthwhile opportunity on the Internet to count cards. Nov. 23, 2001
I am an avid Blackjack player. I've been using the Hi-Opt 2 system with fair success, but I keep running into the same problem: I often seem to forget the running count while playing my hand. I guess my brain has trouble remembering the count while calculating my hand totals. What is your method for keeping the running count straight in your head? - Adam L. from Los Angeles, USA
To be honest with you I forget the running count myself sometimes. Sometimes if I see an impending distraction I'll use my fingers to remember the count. Other than that all I can suggest is play more. The more you play the easier it should become. Sept. 20, 2001
I realize that card counting is pretty much a thing of the past and only if you can find a one deck game. I also realize that if you are good at it you will probably be asked to leave which just about loses my interest in it. My question is when the deck is "rich" why do the odds favor the player and not the dealer as well since he/she is part of the hand? - Harry Waterston of Geneva, USA
Card counting is still alive and well. It is just as easy to count one deck as it is to count eight. Many card counters prefer the multi-deck games. There is lots that can be done to avoid being asked to leave, like short playing sessions and acting like a typical bad player. The reason is a high card rich deck benefits the player is hard to explain but it is largely because a dealer will be forced to hit a stiff hand and you are not. Feb. 10, 2001
As a card counter what are the odds to be a professional blackjack player and make a living playing blackjack? What do we have to do? - T & M from Philadelphia, U.S.
First it takes a lot of time to learn the theory and strategy of card counting and get your counting speed up to casino play. You will also need a large bankroll of at least $50,000 but preferably $100,000. To make a decent living you have to be comfortable with a bet spread of $25-$300 and it takes a large bankroll to sustain the ups and downs. For most people I think it is better to play part time. Jan. 20, 2001
I play blackjack using Basic Strategy. I raise my bet if I see a bunch of low cards and lower my bet it if I see high cards. On my last trip to Las Vegas, two casinos asked me to step away from the table and told me to leave! Please comment on this. It does not seem fair. - Stan from Milwaukee, USA
You obviously understand that a deck rich in high cards favors the player and a deck rich in low cards favors the dealer. Although your method is the crudest form of card counting it is still card counting. Nevada casinos have the legal right to do what they did. In the future I would recommend being more discrete. Never more than double your bet, preferably only after winning. If you feel youíre being watched then get up and leave before they do it for you. Donít play too long in any one place. Ian Andersonís ëTurning the Tables in Las Vegasí gives lots of tips about looking like an ordinary player while card counting. Jan. 14, 2001
What is the best counting system to use. I've tried the Hi-Lo (balanced) and the KO (unbalanced). I like the KO system best because it seems to be the easiest. But I have a fairly good mathematical mind and am able to concentrate pretty good. I play in Biloxi, usually only 2 deck games, das, split any pair, dealer stands on s17, one card after splitting aces, no surrender. What's the best, don't mind a bit difficult, but don't want too difficult. Thanks alot. ñ Marie from Montgomery, USA
There is no best card counting system. Personally I like balanced systems but don't know enough about the KO system to comment. My opinion is that you should only consider systems you are comfortable using and among them weight both the power of the system and how comfortable you are with it. You might try asking this at www.bj21.com. Dec. 24, 2000
Is counting cards in blackjack (or any other card game for that matter) pointless if one is using a truly infinite deck? ñ Jon from Des Moines, USA
Yes. Dec. 10, 2000
I have never gambled on-line, but I would suppose that since you play the games from your computer, with no one watching, it would be a lot easier to do things as card counting or even using a computer to make your decisions. Is this true? Do on-line casinos have any way to check if you're cheating? Also, do you have a time limit to play each hand? ñ Gonzalo from Mexico City, Mexico
Yes, you can easily count cards when playing blackjack online. In fact some products like Blackjack 2021 are specifically designed to aid the player doing this. It isn't cheating either. However most online casinos shuffle after every hand which makes counting cards a waste of time. I have heard that a few have penetration of about 1/3 of the shoe but can't name any. Most places seem to have no time limit. Oct. 5, 2000
Biloxi, Mississippi casino has singledeck black dealt to the buttom. What is the casino's edge on this game? Does the basic strategy for blackjack still hold still hold for this game? but the way, blackjack in this game pays even money. ñ Roger from Baton Rouge, U.S.
Dealing to the bottom of the deck would not help the basic strategy player but greatly benefits the counter. There would be no changes to the basic strategy. However this game may be of interest to card counters. Vegas World (now the Stratosphere) in Las Vegas used to have such a game but I don't think card counters ever took it seriously because of other adverse rules like a blackjack only paying even money. Sept. 26, 2000
Great web page wiz! I like to think of myself as a wiz of sorts. Question- I like to play casino blackjack- mostly Las Vegas, I've been using Hi Opt 1 counting without great success. In Casino Player Magazine Aug. 2000 pg. 50 is a system comparison table. It claims that Uston APC, Halves Count, Revere Apc, Advanced Omega 11, & Hi Opt II are the most profitable counting systems. Can you comment on these and tell me the point values assigned under these systems? Andrew McGill of Jupiter
A book could be written in response to this question. Please excuse me for only scraping the surface. On page 107 of Uston's 'Million Dollar Blackjack' he indicates that following card values for the Hi Opt II: Sept. 26, 2000
Card
Value
2 +1 3 +2 4 +2 5 +3 6 +2 7 +2 8 +1 9 -1 10 -3 ace counted separately It is very true that this is a more powerful system then {-1,0,+1} systems like the Hi Opt I. There are different ways to measure the strength of any given system. My opinion is that the serious player should use the most powerful system that they are comfortable with. It is better to play a level 1 system (like the Hi Opt I) well than to play a level 2 system badly (like the Hi Opt II). Sept. 26, 2000
Q: What do you find to be the best method for counting cards in black jack? When you play do you count the cards? And lastly would you even bother trying to count cards in a six deck game? -Tyson Smith of Omaha, USA
A: There is a trade off with card counting strategies between power and ease of use. I personally recommend Stanford Wong's high-low count. There are more complicated strategies out there that are marginally more powerful but much more difficult to use. Personally I used to count cards but in my current position I don't want to make any enemies so I don't any more. Six deck games are indeed worth counting if the rules are favorable and at least 75% or so of the cards are dealt. In Las Vegas Blackjack Diary by Stuart Perry the author spent most of his time playing 2 and 6 decks games, as opposed to single deck. circa Jan. 2000
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