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Reason #3 why the Wizard likes Bovada: Excellent Odds In my opinion many online casinos are too stingy when setting the odds on their games. They think they will make more money that way but I believe they are misguided, because when players lose too quickly it’s not fun, and those players might not come back. Bovada is one of the few casinos that understands this. They offer generous odds to let you play longer and get you a better chance of winning. Among their generous offerings are Full-Pay Jacks or Better returning 99.54%, six other video poker games paying over 99%, single-zero roulette, and my favorite, Pick ’em Poker, returning 99.95%! Kudos to Bovada for not being afraid to give their players a good gamble. |
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| Fire Bet — Pay Table A | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Points Made | Pays | Probability | Return |
| 0 | -1 | 0.593939 | -0.593939 |
| 1 | -1 | 0.260750 | -0.26075 |
| 2 | -1 | 0.101275 | -0.101275 |
| 3 | -1 | 0.033434 | -0.033434 |
| 4 | 24 | 0.008798 | 0.211156 |
| 5 | 249 | 0.001640 | 0.408343 |
| 6 | 999 | 0.000162 | 0.162272 |
| Total | 1 | -0.207628 | |
| Fire Bet — Pay Table B | |||
| Points Made | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | -1 | 0.593939 | -0.593939 |
| 1 | -1 | 0.260750 | -0.26075 |
| 2 | -1 | 0.101275 | -0.101275 |
| 3 | -1 | 0.033434 | -0.033434 |
| 4 | 10 | 0.008798 | 0.087982 |
| 5 | 200 | 0.001640 | 0.327987 |
| 6 | 2000 | 0.000162 | 0.324869 |
| Total | 1 | -0.248562 | |
| Fire Bet — Pay Table C | |||
| Points Made | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | -1 | 0.593939 | -0.593939 |
| 1 | -1 | 0.260750 | -0.26075 |
| 2 | -1 | 0.101275 | -0.101275 |
| 3 | 6 | 0.033434 | 0.200605 |
| 4 | 29 | 0.008798 | 0.255147 |
| 5 | 149 | 0.001640 | 0.244350 |
| 6 | 299 | 0.000162 | 0.048568 |
| Total | 1 | -0.207295 | |
The Fire Bet makes for a challenging math problem. For those of you up to it, here are my probabilities of making 0 to 6 points, with as many significant digits as Excel can handle.
| Fire Bet Probabilities | |
| Points Made | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.593939393939394 |
| 1 | 0.260750492003903 |
| 2 | 0.101275355549231 |
| 3 | 0.0334342121788456 |
| 4 | 0.00879817844040312 |
| 5 | 0.00163993313895325 |
| 6 | 0.000162434749269826 |
I often get asked how to calculate the above probabilities. Most people do a random simulation, which are fine. However, it makes for a challenging math problems to get the exact probabilities. Here is a brief overview how I did it:
For more help, I offer three resources:

, which I posted at GoogleDocs for anyone to download.
by Stwart N. Ethier has a discussion of Fire Bet math.In my Ten Commandments of Gambling I advise that you avoid gimmicks, and Crapless Craps is an illustrated example. In this game the player can not lose a pass bet on the come out roll. If any number other than a 7 is rolled on the come out roll itbecomes the point. What you are giving up is the sure winnerof 11 on the come out roll. To the mathematically challengedit may seem a good deal, that you are only giving up 1 surewinner for 3 sure losers. The catch is that the probabilityof hitting a point of 2 or 12 is only 1/7, and theprobability of hitting a point of 3 or 11 is only 1/4. Sothe player is not gaining much on the 2, 3, and 12 sincethey will likely lose anyway, but is giving up a sure winneron 11 for only a 1/4 chance of winning. Overall the houseedge on the pass bet in crapless craps is 373/6930 =~5.382%.
Crapless craps does offer free odds of 6-1 on the 2 and12, and 3-1 on the 3 and 11. The following table shows thecombined house edge by combining the pass line and theodds:
| Combined house edge on pass and buying odds in Crapless Craps | |
| Odds | House Edge |
|---|---|
1X | 2.936% |
2X | 2.018% |
3X | 1.538% |
5X | 1.042% |
You can also make place bets on the 2, 3, 11, and 12. The2 and 12 pay 11-2 with a house edge of 7.143%. The 3 and 11pay 11-4 with a house edge of 6.250%. There is no don't passbet in this game.
You can also make buy bets. On points of 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10 the odds are the same as regular craps. The following table shows the odds on the 2, 3, 11, and 12. One reader claims they only charge the commission on wins in Mississippi but I'll list it both ways.
| Buy Bets in Crapless Craps | |||
| Bet | Pays | Prob. Win | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Place 2, 12 | 11 to 2 | 14.2857% | 7.1429% |
| Place 3,11 | 11 to 4 | 25% | 6.25% |
| Buy 2, 12 (commission only on wins) | 119 to 20 | 14.2857% | 0.7143% |
| Buy 3,11 (commission only on wins) | 59 to 20 | 25% | 1.25% |
| Buy 2, 12 (commission always) | 119 to 21 | 14.2857% | 4.7619% |
| Buy 3,11 (commission always) | 59 to 21 | 25% | 4.7619% |
As far as I know, in Las Vegas Crapless Craps is offered at the Stratosphere, Las Vegas Club, The Plaza and Sunset Station.
The Hard Rock in Las Vegas and Texas Treasure
casino cruises offer a pair of side bets based on the total of the dice in one throw. The "Low Dice" bet pays 1 to 1 on totals of 3 to 6 and 5 to 1 on a total of 2. The "High Dice" pays 1 to 1 on totals of 8 to 11 and 5 to 1 on a total of 12. The following return table on the Low Dice bet shows the house edge is 5.56%. The High Dice bet is the opposite so has the same house edge.
| Low Bet | ||||
| Total | Combinations | Probability | Pays | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 0.027778 | 5 | 0.138889 |
| 3 to 6 | 14 | 0.388889 | 1 | 0.388889 |
| 7 to 12 | 21 | 0.583333 | -1 | -0.583333 |
| Total | 36 | 1 | -0.055556 | |
In some jurisdictions, namely California, dice alone may not determine the outcome of a bet. In the game of "Card Craps" 24-card decks are used each consisting of ranks ace to six in all four suits. Two cards are drawn to simulate the roll of the dice. If the suits are different the "roll" stands. If the suits are the same, then the roll is ignored for all craps bets. The odds on all craps bets are the same as if dice were used.
However, there is an extra bet call the "No Call." This bet pays 3 to 1 if the two cards are suited, otherwise it loses. The house edge depends on the number of 24-card decks used as shown below.
| Card Craps - No Call Bet | ||
| Decks | Probability | House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.217391 | 13.0435% |
| 2 | 0.234043 | 6.383% |
| 3 | 0.239437 | 4.2254% |
| 4 | 0.242105 | 3.1579% |
| 5 | 0.243697 | 2.521% |
| 6 | 0.244755 | 2.0979% |
| 7 | 0.245509 | 1.7964% |
| 8 | 0.246073 | 1.5707% |
| 9 | 0.246512 | 1.3953% |
| 10 | 0.246862 | 1.2552% |
| 11 | 0.247148 | 1.1407% |
| 12 | 0.247387 | 1.0453% |
| 13 | 0.247588 | 0.9646% |
| 14 | 0.247761 | 0.8955% |
| 15 | 0.247911 | 0.8357% |
| 16 | 0.248042 | 0.7833% |
The Showboat in Atlantic City I'm told has a "Midway" bet in the normal location of the Big 6 and Big 8 on a total of 6 to 8 in the next roll. A hard 6 or 8 pay 2 to 1, and all other totals of 6 to 8 pay 1 to 1. The following table shows the house edge is 5.56%.
| Midway Bet | ||||
| Total | Combinations | Probability | Pays | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hard 6,8 | 2 | 0.055556 | 2 | 0.111111 |
| Soft 6,8 | 8 | 0.222222 | 1 | 0.222222 |
| 7 | 6 | 0.166667 | 1 | 0.166667 |
| All other | 20 | 0.555556 | -1 | -0.555556 |
| Total | 36 | 1 | -0.055556 | |
Sam's Town in both Las Vegas and Shreveport offer these bet. The Small bet wins if the shooter rolls a 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 before rolling a seven. The Tall bet wins if the shooter rolls an 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 before rolling a seven. A win pays 34 to 1, or 35 for 1. The odds on both bets are the same as follows. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 7.76%.
| Small, Tall Bets | |||
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 34 | 0.026354 | 0.896033 |
| Loss | -1 | 0.973646 | -0.973646 |
| Total | 1 | -0.077614 | |
Sam's Town in both Las Vegas and Shreveport offer this bet. The All bet wins if the shooter rolls a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 before rolling a seven. A win pays 174 to 1, or 175 for 1. The odds are as follows. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 7.99%.
| All Bet | |||
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 174 | 0.005258 | 0.91484 |
| Loss | -1 | 0.994742 | -0.994742 |
| Total | 1 | -0.079903 | |
I hear that Sam's Town in both Las Vegas and Shreveport offer this bet. The bet wins if the shooter can go four throws without rolling a seven. A win pays 1 to 1. The odds are as follows.
| Four Rolls no Seven | |||
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 1 | 0.482253 | 0.482253 |
| Loss | -1 | 0.517747 | -0.517747 |
| Total | 1 | -0.035494 | |
The "Golden Dice Challenge" is a craps side bet found at the MGM Grand in Detroit. The bet pays according to the number of pass line wins the player has before a seven-out. For purposes of the side bet, a win may be made either by rolling a 7 or 11 on the come out roll, or making a point. Rolling a 2, 3, or 12 on the come out roll does not affect the bet. I have conflicting information about a maximum win, but I believe it to be $5000.
The following return table shows the pays, probabilities, and return from each event, based on a $1 bet.
| Golden Dice Challenge Return Table for $1 Bet | |||
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 or more | 5000 to 1 | 0.000008 | 0.037819 |
| 17 to 19 | 2000 to 1 | 0.000037 | 0.07358 |
| 15 to 16 | 1000 to 1 | 0.0001 | 0.099877 |
| 13 to 14 | 100 to 1 | 0.000325 | 0.032478 |
| 11 to 12 | 50 to 1 | 0.001056 | 0.052806 |
| 9 to 10 | 25 to 1 | 0.003434 | 0.085858 |
| 7 to 8 | 10 to 1 | 0.011168 | 0.111678 |
| 5 to 6 | 5 to 1 | 0.036316 | 0.181578 |
| 0 to 4 | Loss | 0.947557 | -0.947557 |
| Total | 1 | -0.271883 | |
Assuming the maximum win is $5000 the following is the house edge for various bet amounts.
| Golden Dice Challenge House Edge by Amout Bet | |
| Bet | House Edge |
|---|---|
| $100 | 49.22% |
| $50 | 46.87% |
| $25 | 45.43% |
| $10 | 41.10% |
| $5 | 33.89% |
| $4 | 32.78% |
| $3 | 30.94% |
| $2 | 29.08% |
| $1 | 27.19% |
7 Point 7 is a craps side bet, which debuted at the Orleans casino in Las Vegas, in late 2008. The bet wins if the player gets a 7 on the come out roll, or the dreaded “point 7,” where the player sevens out on his second roll. The following table shows a house edge of 5.56%.
| 7 Point 7 Return Table | |||
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 on come out roll | 2 | 0.166667 | 0.333333 |
| Point 7 | 3 | 0.111111 | 0.333333 |
| Loser | -1 | 0.722222 | -0.722222 |
| Total | 1 | -0.055556 | |
The “Sharp Shooter” is a side bet in craps spotted at the Hooters casino in Las Vegas in March, 2009. The bet is made when a new shooter takes the dice, and pays according to how many times he makes a point. The follow table shows what each number of points made pays and the probability. Pays have been converted to a "to one" basis, to be consistent with the rest of this page. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 21.87%.
| 7 Point 7 Return Table | |||
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more | 299 | 0.000122 | 0.03644 |
| 9 | 199 | 0.000178 | 0.035474 |
| 8 | 99 | 0.000439 | 0.043461 |
| 7 | 49 | 0.001081 | 0.052975 |
| 6 | 29 | 0.002662 | 0.077212 |
| 5 | 19 | 0.006557 | 0.12458 |
| 4 | 9 | 0.016148 | 0.145328 |
| 3 | 5 | 0.039766 | 0.198831 |
| 2 or less | -1 | 0.933047 | -0.933047 |
| Total | 1 | -0.218744 | |
I noticed this bet at the City of Dreams in Macau in August 2009. It is the same thing as the7 Point 7 bet aleady described.
I saw this side bet at the 2009 Global Gaming Expo, and in June 2010 at the Las Vegas Hilton. It is licensed by Casino Gaming LLC. It is a side wager made on the come out roll. If the player rolls a point, and then a seven on the second roll, the bet pays 7 to 1. All other outcomes lose. The following table shows the house edge is 11.11%.
| Point Seven | |||
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 7 | 0.111111 | 0.777778 |
| Loss | -1 | 0.888889 | -0.888889 |
| Total | 1 | -0.111111 | |
Replay is a craps side bet I spotted at the Boulder Station on September 16, 2010. It pays if the shooter makes the same point at least 3 times before sevening out. The following table shows what each event pays, the probability, and contribution to the return. The table is based on a random simulation of over 2 billion shooters. Only the highest win is paid. The lower right cell shows a house edge of 24.79%.
| Replay | |||
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 or 10 four or more times | 1000 | 0.000037 | 0.036892 |
| 5 or 9 four or more times | 500 | 0.000207 | 0.103497 |
| 4 or 10 three times | 120 | 0.000524 | 0.062847 |
| 6 or 8 four or more times | 100 | 0.000698 | 0.069815 |
| 5 or 9 three times | 95 | 0.001799 | 0.170927 |
| 6 or 8 three times | 70 | 0.004294 | 0.300609 |
| Loser | -1 | 0.992441 | -0.992441 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.247853 | |
Twice as Nice is a side bet that has been seen at an unknown casino in Biloxi. It wins if the shooter throws any specific pair, including a total of 2 and 12, twice before a seven. For example, rolling a hard 10 twice before a 7. Wins pay 6 to 1. The following table shows a house edge of 29.40%.
| Twice as Nice | |||
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 6 | 0.100863 | 0.605178 |
| Loss | -1 | 0.899137 | -0.899137 |
| Total | 1 | -0.293959 | |
A win of 7 to 1 would have a house edge of 19.31%, and 8 to 1 would be 9.22%.
Pete and Repeat has also been seen at the same mystery casino in Biloxi. It wins if any total is rolled twice before a 7. Wins pay even money. The following table shows a house edge of 5.79%.
| Pete and Repeat | |||
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 1 | 0.471066 | 0.471066 |
| Loss | -1 | 0.528934 | -0.528934 |
| Total | 1 | -0.057868 | |
Place the Hard Ways is a proposition wager that was seen at the Orleans
in Las Vegas in late 2011. It works like the other Place bets, except the point must be made the hard way. It differs from the Hard Way bets in that making the point the easy way does not cause a loss. There are four bets available, on the hard 4, 6, 8, and 10.
The following table shows the house edge is 14.3% per bet resolved.
| Place the Hard Ways | ||||
| Event | Pays | Combinations | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 5 | 1 | 0.142857 | 0.714286 |
| Lose | -1 | 6 | 0.857143 | -0.857143 |
| Total | 7 | 1.000000 | -0.142857 | |
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