Baccarat Appendix 7 — Chemin de Fer

Last update: October 15, 2004

Despite having been to Europe three times, I still have never knowingly seen a game of Chemin de Fer. However, I get asked about it a lot, especially by James Bond fans, so will finally address the game here.

From my research it seems that Chemin de Fer is the same thing as baccarat except in procedure, and the player sometimes has free will in taking a third card. In particular if the player has a 5, and the banker does not have a natural, the player has the choice to take a third card of stand pat.

The following table shows the possible outcomes by standing and hitting a five in an eight-deck game.

Possible Outcomes with Player Five

Win Hit on 5 Stand on 5

Banker 0.429797 0.469423

Player 0.442303 0.44471

Tie 0.127899 0.085867

If the player hits a five, then the player bet has a 1.2506% advantage. If the player stands pat on a five, then the player bet has a 2.4713% disadvantage. So, the odds favor hitting the five.

If the player always were to stand on five the house advantage of each bet over all possible hands would be as follows.

Banker: 0.7869%
Player: 1.5214%
Tie: 17.2994%

So, I hope I have made the case the player should hit on five. If the player were to do this the odds on the overall game would be the same as in baccarat.

As always, I am open to arguments if someone believes any analysis of mine to be in error. However I do not wish to hear anybody quoting the Chemin de Fer scene in the James Bond movie For Your Eyes Only. As the link will show that scene had at least two mistakes, and in my opinion, makes almost no sense at all.

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