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Questions & Answers about Keno |
Does it matter what numbers you pick in video keno at all? I understand that it is a RNG chip like any slot machine and that the numbers are just to give us the illusion of control. I've tried writing IGT but they won't respond. Thanks! - Jari from Minnetonka, MN
Much like live keno, the odds are the same regardless of what you pick, but they are independent of the balls the game draws.
September 22, 2006
There is an interesting way that one can play keno, though not in the way the state intended. Bet that at least 11 of the 20 numbers will appear in 3 rows; horizontal, vertical or a combination. Stress that there are 18 rows. Many times the sucker will play. A variant of this bet is that one row will be blank. I hope that you can use this. You have an excellent, informative site. Note that one needs a bankroll though not a large one. 10 to 15x the largest bet that you are going to cover is enough. - Richard M. from Silver Spring, Md.
I hope you're happy, I spent all day on this. After writing and running a simulation I find that the probability that any 3 lines will contain 11 or more marks is 86.96%! That isn't even giving the other side a fighting chance. You can go up to 12 marks and still have a probability of 53.68% of winning, or an advantage of 7.36%. However, I think you have the wrong side of the empty row bet. The probability of at least one empty row is only 33.39%, better to take the other side of no empty rows. While I was at this I did lots of other probabilities and put them in a new page of keno props. Here is a list from that page of these and other good even-money bets. The good side is listed.
| Even Money Keno Props |
| Prop |
Probability
of a Win |
House
Edge |
| No row will have 5 or more hits | 53.47% | 6.94% |
| Greatest number of hits in a column will be exactly 4 | 55.2% | 10.4% |
| Every row to have at least one mark | 66.61% | 33.23% |
| Number of empty columns will not be 1 | 54.08% | 8.15% |
| Top/bottom to have 9 to 11 marks | 56.09% | 12.17% |
| 3 lines (rows and/or columns) will contain 12 or more marks | 53.68% | 7.36% |
June 23, 2006
My wife and father in law went to Las Vegas a couple of months ago and she asked where the Keno games are (sot the Keno slot machines) and was told that most hotels didn't have keno any more. Is that true? And if so do you know why Mr. Wizard? - Bill from Malibu
I disagree. I can't think of a single major Strip casino without a keno lounge. In general, the only casinos without keno are the locals casinos in the suburbs of Vegas because most of us locals know that keno is a sucker game.
Jan. 14, 2006Sir, I recently read in a book about odds that the odds of hitting all 20 numbers in keno are a quintillion to one. The book described this by saying that if there were one drawing per week and everyone on earth always bought a ticket, it would take 5 million years to produce a winner. My question is, is there a prize for hitting all 20, and if so, has anyone ever hit it? I've heard that no one has ever hit keno in the history of Vegas, it this true? - Tim from Greenville, SC
The probability of hitting all 20 is 1 in combin(80,20) = 3,535,316,142,212,180,000. So the odds are more like 3.5 quintillion to one. Assuming all 5 billion people on earth played once a week, there would be one winner every 13.56 million years, on average. Most casinos pay the same amount for hitting close to 20. For example, the Las Vegas Hilton pays $20,000 for hitting 17 or more out of 20. I have never heard of anyone ever hitting 20 out of 20, and I doubt very much that it has ever happened. Oct. 18, 2005
Dear wonderful Wizard, firstly THANK YOU VERY MUCH for
your wonderful site! I have spent hours upon hours exploring
all that your superbly done site has to offer, and I am
grateful for your truly invaluable advice, so THANK YOU! I
have a question regarding a side bet of Keno here in
Australia called "Heads and Tails". The board is divided in
half, numbers 1 to 40 are heads and 41 to 80 are tails. If
the majority of numbers drawn are low (1 to 40) then heads
wins, if the majority are high (41-80) then tails wins. Both
bets pay 1 to 1. There is also a bet called Evens, which
pays 3 to 1 if 10 numbers are low and 10 are high. My
question is, what is the house edge of each bet?
Compliments will get you everywhere. The number
of combinations for n heads is combin(40,n)*combin(40,20-n).
This is the number of ways to choose n numbers out of the
top 40 and 20-n out of the bottom 40. The following table
shows the probability of 0 to 20 heads.
|
Probability of 0 to 20 Heads
|
|
Heads
|
Combinations
|
Probability
|
|
0
|
137846528820
|
0.000000039
|
|
1
|
5251296336000
|
0.0000014854
|
|
2
|
88436604204000
|
0.0000250152
|
|
3
|
876675902544001
|
0.0002479767
|
|
4
|
5744053569793500
|
0.0016247638
|
|
5
|
26468598849608400
|
0.0074869114
|
|
6
|
89077015359259200
|
0.0251963366
|
|
7
|
224342112756653000
|
0.0634574402
|
|
8
|
429655207020554000
|
0.1215323297
|
|
9
|
632136396535987000
|
0.1788061862
|
|
10
|
718528370729238000
|
0.2032430317
|
|
11
|
632136396535987000
|
0.1788061862
|
|
12
|
429655207020554000
|
0.1215323297
|
|
13
|
224342112756653000
|
0.0634574402
|
|
14
|
89077015359259200
|
0.0251963366
|
|
15
|
26468598849608400
|
0.0074869114
|
|
16
|
5744053569793500
|
0.0016247638
|
|
17
|
876675902544001
|
0.0002479767
|
|
18
|
88436604204000
|
0.0000250152
|
|
19
|
5251296336000
|
0.0000014854
|
|
20
|
137846528820
|
0.000000039
|
|
Total
|
3535316142212170000
|
1
|
This shows the probability of 11 to 20 heads is
39.84%, for a house edge of 20.32%. The probability of
exactly 10 is 20.32%, for a house edge of 18.70%.
Jan. 9, 2005
I have seen a keno game with the following side bets.
What is the scoop on these bets?
HEADS - bet that eleven to twenty numbers in the top
half appear - even money
TAILS - bet that zero to nine numbers in the top half appear
- even money
EVENS - bet that exactly ten numbers in the top half appear
- pays 3 to 1
The probability of the tie bet winning is
combin(40,10)*combin(40,10)/combin(80,20) = 0.203243.
Paying 3 to 1, the house edge is 18.703%. The probability
of the heads (or tails) bet winning is (1-0.20343)/2 =
0.398378. Paying even money, the house edge is 20.324%.
Aug. 23, 2004
Which are the most and least volatile games?
Pai gow poker is the least volatile and, on
average, keno is the most. July
14, 2003
Dear Sir, We are avid Keno players. It is our
intuitive belief that if we play two or more keno machines
using the same numbers that our chances for hitting those
numbers are significantly increased. Can you enlighten us
with some statistics to support our intuition? Thank you. -
Gene & Rosie Schwarzmeier, Bayside, WI
Your overall expected return is the same
regardless of how many games you play. Of course, the probability of hitting a number increases with the amount of machines you play;
but if they all miss, you lose more money.
March 21, 2003
I visit the casinos quite frequently and have noticed
that people seem to do fairly well on the video keno quarter
machines. Do you have any suggestions as to what numbers to
play. I have noticed that there are some that come up more
frequently than others. - Karen Hansen from Antioch,
USA
I doubt certain numbers are more likely than
others. My advice is to pick anything, it doesn't make
any difference. Jan. 11,
2003
Is there an advantage in playing same numbers in
caveman keno, or playing different numbers every time. or
changing one number at a time? - Mike from Mesa, USA
It doesn't make any difference.
April 15, 2002
Mr. Wizard, your site is truly informative. There is a
keno game here where we can bet on HEAD, TAIL or EVEN. HEAD
meaning 11 numbers or more in the first forty numbers, TAIL
meaning 11 numbers or more in the last forty numbers. EVEN
meaning 10 numbers each in the first forty and last forty
respectively. There are 20 numbers drawn each time. What are
the odds of each bet winning? One more thing, since the
house is negative according to you (for some online
casinos), does that mean that a player can consistently win
in the long run in the game of blackjack? - Tony from
Malaysia
The probability of n numbers drawn in the first
40, last 40, or any given 40 is
combin(40,n)*combin(40,20-n)/combin(80,20). So the
probability of exactly 10 in the first 40 (and 10 in the
last 40) is combin(40,10)*combin(40,10)/combin(80,20) =
0.203243. The probability of one half having more than
the other is 1-.203243= 0.796757. The probability of a
specific half having more is half of 0.796757, or
0.398378. If this bet paid even money the house edge
would be 20.32%. If the even bet paid 3 to 1 then the
house edge on that bet would be 18.70%. If it paid 4 to 1
the player would have a 1.62% edge.
About positive expectation blackjack online, the more
the player plays the greater the probability of a net
profit. The best game is currently Unified Gaming's
single deck, which has a player edge of 0.16%. If the player
flat bets one million hands, the probability of being down
would still be about 8.6%. At Boss Media's single player
game, with a player edge of 0.07%, the probability of a
loss after a million hands is about 27.5%.
Sept. 13, 2001
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