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Questions about the Odds Bets in Craps |
Playing craps at Barona casino I had three come bets working with odds. After the pass line point won, the come out was a seven so I expected to lose my come bets and have my odds returned to me. Instead, the boxman said for a price I could keep my come bets & odds up. Surprised, I said yes and paid up $15 since the
table was hot. Opinion? Is this available in Vegas?
— Rick from Poway
I assume the come bets were $5 each. Under this assumption, you were actually making put bets, which you can do at any time, anywhere. I normally don’t recommend put bets, because you skip the come out roll on the come bet, which has a 22.2% chance of winning, and only a 11.11% chance of losing. My advice is to start over with new come bets. August 6, 2008
Most of our casinos collect the commission on buy bets on a win only. They only charge $1 for wager of $20–$39. Does this actually make buying the 4 or 10 for $33–$39 a better bet than placing the 6 or 8?
— Ron from St. Louis
Let’s find the breakeven point. The expected value of placing the 6 or 8 is [(5/11)*7 + (6/11)*-6]/6 =
-(1/11)/6 = -1.52%.
Let b be the buy bet. The expected value is [(1/3)*(2b-1) + (2/3)*-b] / b = (-1/3)/b
Equating the two bets:
-1/66 = (-1/3)/b
3b = 66
b = 22
So, at a bet of $22 the odds are the same. The odds are better on the buy bet for bets of $23 to $39. July 21, 2008
I was playing craps at Harrah's in St Louis, and noticed they have
added place bet positions for the 2, 3, 11, and 12 to the table. I don't remember what they paid. Do you know the odds for these bets? Thanks. — Ron from Collinsville , Il
Crapless Craps offers those two bets too. There is one way to roll a 2, and six ways to roll a 7, so the probability of winning a place bet on the 2 is 1/7. Same probability is the same for the 12. As explained in the baccarat question, if the probability of something is p, then fair odds are (1/p)-1 to 1. In this case fair odds would be 6 to 1. The house edge can be expressed as (t-a)/(t+1), where t is the true odds, and a is the actual odds. In Crapless Craps the place bet on the 2 and 12 pays 11 to 2. Using this formula, the house edge on the 2 and 12 is (6-5.5)/(6+1) = 0.5/7 = 7.14%.
In Crapless Craps the 3 and 11 pay 11 to 4. Using the same formula, t=3, and a=2.75, so the house edge is 0.25/4 = 6.25%. May 26, 2008
What would be the house edge of a pass and don’t pass bet after a point is established? – A.B. from Zion, IL
After a pass bet, on a point of 4 or 10, the house edge swings to 33.33%. On a 5 or 9, it is 20%, and on a 6 or 8, it is 9.09%. The player has these same advantages on a don’t pass bet, once a point has been established. January 13, 2008
What is the house edge of the “anything but seven” strategy in craps? Under this strategy, after a point is rolled, the player bets the field and places the 5, 6, and 8, unless the point is already one of those numbers. Also, what is the house edge of the “anything but the point” strategy, in which the player does the same thing after a don’t pass bet? – Jason from Murrieta
According to my calculations, the “anything but the point” strategy will have a loss of 0.11988 units per pass bet resolved. The expected amount bet, counting only resolved bets, is 5.09865 units. So, defining the house edge as the ratio of expected loss to total bets resolved, it is 2.351%. Under the “anything but the point” strategy, the house edge is 9.19394/5.09865 = 2.341%, which includes the push on 12 as a resolved bet. January 13, 2008
Which casinos in Las Vegas gives the best odds on Craps. - Wayne from Honolulu
How does the casino practice of calling established
come bet odds "off" during the "come out" roll affect the
house advantage, how is that computed, and how is the house
advantage affected by leaving the odds on come bets turned
on during come out rolls?
Good question. For those who don't understand
the question, unless otherwise requested, odds on come
out bets are not active on come out rolls. So if the
player rolls a seven on a come out roll any come bets
will lose and odds on come bets will be returned.
Likewise if the player's point on the come bet is rolled
on the come out roll the come bet will win but the odds
will push. The answer depends on how we define the house
edge. If we define it as expected loss to total bets made
then turning the odds off would not matter. This is
because the player is still betting the odds and it still
counts as a bet even if it is returned as a push. However
if you define the house edge as expected loss to bets
resolved then turning the odds off on a come out roll
does indeed increase the house edge. I wrote a computer
simulation to determine this effect. Assuming the player
takes fives times odds then turning the odds off on come
out rolls increases the ratio of losses to total bets
resolved from 0.326% to 0.377%, or an increase of 0.051%.
So if you want to maximize your return on bets resolved
then leave those come odds turned on.
Dec. 2, 2003
I do not understand why you should lay the odds on the
don't pass or don't come bets. It seems that you have
already dodged the 7 and ll bullet, so the bet is now in
your favor. Why would you dilute a bet that is already
heavily in your favor with a large (relative speaking)bet at
true odds? It seems that you are working in the houses favor
by reducing the house edge on the entire bet.
I understand that taking the odds on the pass side
reduces the overall house edge, however I don't understand
how laying the odds can reduce the house edge on the don't
side. I'm very curious? By the way, I discussed this with
several casino bosses and dealers yesterday and they all had
opinions, but not reasons for these opinions. Thanks for
your time. - Mike Hill
Let's say you have a $10 don't pass bet and the
point is a 4. You have a 2/3 chance of winning the bet,
so the expected value is (2/3)*$10 + (1/3)*-$10 =$ 10/3 =
$3.33. Now consider adding a $40 odds bet on top of it.
Now you have a 2/3 chance of winning $30 and a 1/3 chance
of losing $50. The expected value of both bets combined
is (2/3)*$30 + (1/3)*-$50 = $10/3 = $3.33. So either way
your expected gain is 3 dollars and 33 cents. With the
don't pass alone the player edge is $3.33/$10 = 33.33%.
With the don't pass and odds the player edge is $3.33/$50
= 6.67%. So, yes, the player edge as a percentage drops
by making the odds bet. However that player edge is
effective over more money. The way I think gamblers
should view the house edge is as the price to pay for
entertainment. If you want to pay as little as possible
then taking or laying the odds is getting entertainment
for free. May 5, 2003
Michael, saw you on the travel channel from Vegas the
other day giving your expert advice regarding house
advantage. Good job. Didn't realize you were that young. I
was playing craps at the new Seneca/Niagara casino and
instructed the dealer to have the odds working for a don't
come bet on the come out roll. He advised the odds are
always working for that bet. Is he correct? - Gordon from
Niagara Falls
Thanks for the kind words on my Travel Channel
appearance. For those of you who missed it the show was
titled Sucker Bets. The dealer was right. In general bets
are turned off on a come out roll in which a seven would
cause the player to lose. I guess they don't want some
players to sour the mood of the table by rooting against
a 7 on the come out roll. Since a 7 would cause the odds
on the don't pass to win they are left on.
Feb. 4, 2003
The Wizard said: "The double up feature [in video
poker] is truly fair and has no house edge. This is one
of the few times I say you can go either way and just do
what you want." The same, of course, is true of true odds
bets at craps. So, why promote taking odds at craps and not
promote doubling up? Just as you can drop the house edge to
essentially nothing at craps, you can do the same thing at
video poker or blackjack...My own reasoning is that cutting
cards against the casino for fair stakes is just boring, but
I'd be interested in your opinion. - Jonathan Falk from New
York City
You are of course quoting me from my March
24 column. This is a good and fair question. I should
point out that taking or laying the odds in craps does
not help the player to win more, only to bet more at no
additional expense. The reason I encourage craps players
to bet on the odds is that it is the cheapest bet on the
table and is truly a craps bet. All odds, as well as
place, buy, and lay bets win if one number is thrown
before another. This is a very fundamental aspect of the
game. It only makes sense for the player to make the bet
with the lowest house edge. Refusing the odds in craps to
bet on something else instead is like refusing a free
coffee refill in a restaurant and instead buying another
cup.
As I pointed out in the last column some video poker
games allow the player to make a double or nothing bet
with no house edge. The reason I am not as forceful about
taking this bet is that it is not follow the flow of
video poker. The video poker player is generally not
there to make a mindless even money bet. Gambling should
be thought of as entertainment, for which the player
should expect to pay for. If the player doesn't get any
entertainment value out of the double up feature then he
shouldn't pay for it, even with no house edge. So my
advice to the video poker player is make the double up
bet if you enjoy it, otherwise don't.
April 15, 2002
Are the craps probability numbers with the odds taken
100% reliable. Also is the gaming industry your full time
profession, and do you visit Atlantic City often? Also, how
do you simulate billions and billions of hands, spins, and
rolls. Is it computer generated and if so with which
software? - DB from New York, USA
Well, anyone can make a mistake but craps is an
easy game to analyze mathematically so I would be very
confident my odds on craps are right. Yes, gambling in
one way or another is my full time self-employed
profession. I have been to Atlantic City many times in
the last few years but two months ago I moved to Las
Vegas. So I'm afraid I wouldn't be gracing Atlantic City
with my presence much any longer. I prefer to a
combinatorial approach as opposed to random simulations
whenever I can. Either way I roll my own software with
Visual C++. That comes with a random number generator,
which I seed with the time every few minutes.
April 15, 2001
What are your casino choices in AC for craps and
Spanish 21? When you mention that it is wise to take full
odds on a bet while playing craps, do you mean to match your
bet with an equal odds bet, or to make the highest allowed
odds bet along with your bet (ex: at a table with 10x max
odds place a $1 bet with a $1 free odds bet, or a $1 bet
with a $10 free odds bet). I'm a little confused on that. I
love your site, and honestly see it as "a diamond in the
rough" among gambling advice web sites. Personally, I like
to know what the mathematical odds are when it comes to
wagering my hard earned money! Thanks in advance for
answering my questions! - Dave Palmer from Roanoke, Virginia
Thanks for the compliment. The Spanish 21 rules
are probably the same across Atlantic City. I only know
of two that have the game, the Tropicana and the
Claridge, but there could be others by now. If I'm not
mistaken the best craps game is at the Sands, which
offers 5X odds. When I say to take the maximum odds I
mean bet the maximum allowed on the odds. Or $10 after a
$1 line bet, to use your example. Keep in mind you won't
win more money by taking the odds, you just get to bet
more without losing more in the long run.
April 15, 2001
What is the calculation of the house edge for a put
bet on the pass line(after the come out roll and the point
is established) with full odds (eg. 2x, 10x, 100x) for the
6&8, 7&9, 4&10 and any combination there of? I
became very curious after I saw this bet allowed at
Binions-LV last time I was in town. Jim Mason
Since you asked I added information about the
put bet in my craps section.
That should tell you what you want to know.
Oct. 15, 2000
Should you leave your odds 'off' or turn them 'on' for
a new pass line roll? ñ K Garris from Louisville, USA
You should leave them on. It is best to have as
much on the odds as possible. Turning the odds off is
like temporarily removing the odds
bet. Oct. 5, 2000
Q: What is the house advantage on put bets with 20
times odds. Should the house allow put bets at these odds,
for example someone could take $1000 with $20,000 on every
number. Could you explain this to me? Thanks, Great site.
ñ Bry from Chesterton, Indiana
A: For other readers let me explain that a put
bet is making a pass or come bet after a point has
already been established. The player may choose the point
to be established on the put bet. While the player can
make an odds bet immediately on top of the put bet the
opportunity to win on the initial roll is lost. The
effect is the same as making a place bet or buying odds
but the house edge is different depending on the multiple
of odds allowed. In the case of 20 times odds the house
edge of the put bet on the 4 and 10 is 1.59%, on the 5
and 9 is 0.95%, and on the 6 and 8 is 0.43%. At this high
level of odds allowed (which is much greater than the
norm) all put bets are better than the corresponding
place or buy bets. This option should never be taken at a
casino that offers less than 5 times odds. At 5 times
odds exactly the put bet on the 6 and 8 is slightly
better than the place bet. At 10 times odds or greater
all put bets become better than their corresponding place
or buy bets. I shall add something to my craps section
about the put bet, thanks for the idea.
July 9, 2000
Q: I have heard it said that with one come bet a
player should call off the odds on a come out roll, but with
two or more the player should leave them on. The rational is
that with two or more on the odds of rolling one of the come
points is greater than rolling a 7, but with one bet the
player is more likely to win than lose. - SD from San
Francisco, California
A: The player should always leave the odds on
regardless of how many come bets are active. When
considering the options looking at the probability of
winning alone is not enough. Yes, with one come bet the
odds of losing the come bet are greater than winning,
however the potential win is greater than potential loss.
The reason the player should always leave the odds on are
because it is a bet with zero house edge. By turning the
odds off the player is making the overall game more
heavily weighted towards the bets with a house edge, thus
increasing the overall ratio of the expected loss to the
total amount bet. June 10,
2000
Q: Let me begin by saying that of all the gambling
related sites, The Wizard of Odds is by far the best. My
question has to do with a betting strategy for craps, with
what some people have termed variance. As you state in your
10 commandments, the house has an edge in the long term, but
there are short term fluctuations. A casino I played at had
the 3,4,5 odds system where you were allowed 3x on the 4 and
10, 4x on the 5 and 9 and 5 x on the 6 and 8. I feel that
with this "system" of placing odds, you reduce the
fluctuations (with respect to standard 5x odds on all
numbers) in your bankroll, and chage the distribution of net
gain/loss per session, ie you would produce a sharper peak
located slightly more to the loss side than with 5x odds. Is
this so, and could you put some numbers to it? - Ted from ?
A: That is clever of the casino, regardless of
what point is established if the player can win six times
the pass line bet on the odds. So in just one bet there
is a 9.26% chance of losing 6 units, a 6.67% chance of
losing 5 units, a 4.55% chance of losing 4 units, an
11.11% chance of losing 1 unit, a 22.22% chance of
winning 1 unit, and a 13.54% chance of winning 7 units.
This is a pretty skewed distribution but not as skewed if
they allowed 5X on all odds bets. So yes the variance
would be less. However over many bets the possible final
outcome will still be a random variable that could fall
anywhere in a bell curve shape according to the central
limit theorem. April 15,
2000
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