 Ask the Wizard: |
Blackjack basic strategy |
This page is for general questions about basic strategy.
Please also see my page for questions about specific hands.
I have always heard a rumor that casinos invented basic strategy. Where did the basic strategy come from? — Eric from Bettendorf, Iowa
John Patrick is probably behind that rumor. The basic strategy was first published in the September 1956 issue of the Journal of the American Statistical Association. The article was titled “ The Optimum Strategy in Blackjack” by Roger R. Baldwin, Wilbert E. Cantey, Herbert Maisel, and James P. McDermott. Collectively, they are known today as the “Four Horseman of Aberdeen,” because they worked at the Amberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland at the time they did the analysis. I’m proud to have a copy of that article, and to have seen three of the four Horseman, when they were inducted into the 2007 Blackjack Hall of Fame. It has since been derived from scratch by hundreds of people, including me. If done properly, under the same rules, the results always agree. Then again, maybe I’m just in on the conspiracy. June 16, 2008
I follow your 4+ deck Blackjack basic strategy 100% of the time and
I always get dirty looks whenever I hit my 12 against a dealer 2 and especially a 3. I don't know how to explain to the other players in simple terms why what I'm doing
in the best thing to do. — Everett from St. Charles, MO
I feel your pain. You can imagine how bad it gets in Spanish 21, which calls for such plays as hitting 14 against a 3. As long as it is just looks, I would let it slide. If it gets to words, I would say something like, "There are lots of other tables in here." There is no way you are going to convince simpletons like this by trying to explain the odds. The more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held.
There is usually no sound-bite explanation anyway to why one play is better than another. To know why the correct play is what it is, one must either consider every possible way the remaining cards could fall, for both player and dealer, or play out the hand thousands of times, even millions for very borderline hands. The decision with the highest expected value is the one you should take. Only refusing insurance yields itself to being easily explained. May 26, 2008
The racinos in Pennsylvania recently added electronic blackjack tables.
Apparently, to get them installed they had to work like a slot machine or video poker. Does this mean the results are predetermined when the cards get dealt? Also I do not know the rules, but do you know what is the house edge for this game? – Scott F. from Philadelphia, PA
The game you refer to is by Shufflemaster for their TMS-300 series of games. It is mathematically equivalent to a hand-dealt game. Conventional basic strategy should be used. In Pennsylvania, to meet gaming regulations, a separate shoe is used for each player, so one player’s actions do not affect other players. In all other states a single shoe is used. Shufflemaster tells me the following rules are common to all units.
7-card Charlie.
Double after split allowed.
Late surrender allowed.
Player may split only once.
Split aces get one card each.
In six-deck games the cards are shuffled after 2/3 shoe penetration. The player is not informed when the shuffle takes place. In single-deck game the cards are shuffled after every hand.
The following table shows the configurable rules and the house edge under each variation, assuming total-dependent basic strategy.
| Shufflemaster TMS-300 Video Blackjack |
Number
of Decks |
Blackjack
Pays |
Soft
17 |
Hole
Card |
House
Edge |
| 6 | 3 to 2 | Stands | American | 0.39% |
| 6 | 3 to 2 | Stands | European | 0.50% |
| 6 | 3 to 2 | Hits | American | 0.59% |
| 6 | 3 to 2 | Hits | European | 0.69% |
| 1 | 6 to 5 | Stands | American | 1.25% |
July 25, 2007
I'm totally baffled! If in an 8-deck or continuous shuffle blackjack game there is no difference in the probabilities of a card appearing at any time, why have you posted Blackjack Appendix #18? If the probabilities say hit on 16 vs. 7 or higher, how can the probabilities change if you have 5 or 6 cards as opposed to 2 cards? 16 is 16 no matter how you construct it, right? I see the change if the deck is shrinking or in a game like Spanish 21 where there is a bonus for 21 with 5 or more cards, but why in an 8-deck game or continuous shuffle? – Ernie from Toledo
The reason the strategy changes, according to the number of cards in your hand, as shown in appendix 18, is that every card that leaves the deck changes the probabilities of every card left to be played. A good example is the single-deck basic strategy says to surrender 7,7 against a 10; but for any other 14 you should hit. The reason you should surrender is half the sevens have already been removed from the deck. You need another seven to make 21, the only hand that will beat a dealer 20. So the shortage of sevens lowers the expected value of hitting to under half a bet, making surrender the better play.
In an eight-deck shoe there are 416 cards. That may seem like a lot, but 16 against a 10 is such a borderline hand that removal of just one card can making standing a better play. The rule is that for eight or fewer decks if your 16 is composed of three or more cards, and the dealer has a 10, then you should stand. In a two-card 16 the average points per card is 8, with a 3-card 16 the average is 5.33. With more small cards out of the deck in the 3-card hand the remaining deck becomes more large card rich, making hitting more dangerous, swaying the odds in favor of standing.
March 5, 2007
Great site! Your blackjack strategy card is the best one I've seen. Is it available anywhere? The one I'm currently using does't have surrender on it, what am I losing by using this? – John C. from Crestwood
Thanks. Almost every casino gift shop sells basic strategy cards, but for some reason they don’t indicate when to surrender. There are not many situations to surrender, but those situations happen often, so I think they are worth memorizing. In a six-deck game, surrender is worth 0.07% if the dealer stands on soft 17, and 0.09% if he hits it.
June 23, 2006
In multiple-deck blackjack, I don't count cards, and I understand that insurance is generally a bad bet. Sometimes, with six or seven hands playing, I check on what cards are exposed for that deal and place an insurance bet if there are two or fewer 10-pointers visible. How foolish is this? -- Jim from Atlanta
In a six-deck game you should have to see 24 non-tens, and no tens, for insurance to be a breakeven bet. The probability of that happening is extremely low. So unless you are counting, I would never take insurance in a shoe game. However, in a double deck game if you can see eight non-tens, and the ratio of non-tens to tens in the rest of the visible cards is at least 2 to 1 then insurance would be at least an even bet. For example: 8 non-tens and 0 tens, 10 non-tens and 1 ten, 12 non-tens and 2 tens. In true single deck (blackjack pays 3 to 2) you only need to see four non-tens and then have the same 2 to 1 ratio in the rest of the visible cards.
May 2, 2006
Sir! What is or where we can find the best basic strategy for Club Blackjack as played in Finland, Sweden and Baltic Ferries. 6d, NHC, DD9-11,1Spl, NDAS,dealer wins ties 17-20 (17-19 in Swd). We understand that this is a complete suckers game with house edge of nearly 9% but it is the only game in town and since we cannot win we would at least die fighting as good soldiers are expected to do. Thank You! -- Vankka from Vantaa, Finland
I've actually seen those rules when I went to Helsinki in 1986. I was only 20 at the time and I'm embarrassed to say I actually played the game, because I still underage in the U.S., and was still years away from becoming the Wizard. In fact it would have been the first legal game of blackjack I ever played. Meanwhile there was a single-zero roulette table right next to it.
I assume the dealer stands on soft 17 in both cases. It is my understanding that double after a split is allowed in Sweden but not Finland. Assuming that I get a house edge of 5.99% in Sweden and 8.93% in Finland. Here are the basic strategy charts.
March 13, 2006
Your strategy cards for Blackjack I presume is basic strategy for the initial cards (player's first two cards and dealer's up card). However after hitting or splitting the deck composition has changed and the basic strategy may have changed. What I think would be more appropriate is a basic strategy based on the overall game of blackjack, including after splitting and hitting. Is there any situation where your initial hand basic strategy and one for the overall game are different? - Adrian from Luton
Yes, my basic strategy charts are designed to be the best play based on the first two cards. This is the usual approach to developing the basic strategy. One benefit to this approach is the expected values of each play can be calculated exactly and compared to other sources. However you bring up a valid point.
So I asked Don Schlesinger, author of Blackjack Attack, if there were any known play where the best play on the initial hand is different from the best play to maximize the expected value of the overall game of blackjack. He replied that a soft 18 against a dealer ace, in a double-deck game, where the dealer stands on soft 17, was such a play.
As my blackjack appendix 9 shows the expected value for standing is -0.100502 and for hitting is -0.100359. So based on the first two cards the odds favor hitting by 0.000143.
However there are many more ways to see soft 18 than one ace and one seven. The following table shows all the ways this hand can turn up.
| Soft 18 Vs Ace Combinatorial Analysis |
Player
cards |
Conditional
Probability |
Hit
EV |
Stand
EV |
Hit
Return |
Stand
Return |
| A7 | 0.621139169 | -0.100359 | -0.100502 | -0.062336906 | -0.062425729 |
| A6A | 0.036728229 | -0.11202 | -0.116009 | -0.004114296 | -0.004260805 |
| A52 | 0.146912917 | -0.111299 | -0.103382 | -0.016351261 | -0.015188151 |
| A43 | 0.146912917 | -0.114804 | -0.103721 | -0.01686619 | -0.015237955 |
| A5AA | 0.001827682 | -0.111395 | -0.105122 | -0.000203595 | -0.00019213 |
| A42A | 0.016814677 | -0.116975 | -0.108233 | -0.001966897 | -0.001819903 |
| A33A | 0.007356421 | -0.132142 | -0.107256 | -0.000972092 | -0.00078902 |
| A322 | 0.020470041 | -0.134229 | -0.11004 | -0.002747673 | -0.002252523 |
| A4AAA | 0.000073486 | -0.117554 | -0.110984 | -0.000008639 | -0.000008156 |
| A32AA | 0.001028802 | -0.134775 | -0.112433 | -0.000138657 | -0.000115671 |
| A222A | 0.000709873 | -0.136788 | -0.114993 | -0.000097102 | -0.00008163 |
| A3AAAA | 0.000002238 | -0.135313 | -0.114821 | -0.000000303 | -0.000000257 |
| A22AAA | 0.000023502 | -0.137312 | -0.117376 | -0.000003227 | -0.000002759 |
| A2AAAAA | 0.000000046 | -0.137859 | -0.119823 | -0.000000006 | -0.000000006 |
| Total | 1 | | | -0.105806844 | -0.102374694 |
Explanation of column titles
Player cards:Cards in player's hand
Conditional probability: Given that the player has a soft 18 against a dealer ace the probability of the given hand composition.
Hit EV:Expected value by hitting
Stand EV:Expected value by standing
Hit Return:Product of probability and hit expected value
Stand Return:Product of probability and stand expected value
The left two cells of the bottom row show that overall the expected value of hitting is -0.105807 and for standing is -0.102375. So the table shows the odds favor standing by 0.00343.
To confirm these results I ran two simulations under the rules in question, one simulation hitting and one standing on this play. I counted only hands where soft 18 against a dealer ace happened at any time during play. Here are my results.
| Soft 18 Vs Ace Simulation |
| Soft 17 |
Hands
Played |
Total
Win |
Expected
Value |
| Stand | 3857490 | -396224 | -0.102715 |
| Hit | 3208390 | -337572 | -0.105215 |
So the simulation shows the odds favor standing by 0.0025 over all possible scenarios where this hand turns up. Thus for practical purposes of playing all hands the best play is to stand, contrary to what my basic strategy chart says.
Jan. 3, 2006 Since most online casinos deal each hand out of a "fresh shoe," is there an opportunity to create a special basic strategy card for the "first hand out of a shoe," or do your various basic strategy cards work as well? - Bill W from summit, New Jersey
The existing basic charts, including mine, are already based on a fresh shuffle. Sept. 11, 2005
I've seen video blackjack in several LV casinos and am wondering if the game is regulated in a similar fashion as video poker. If so, would playing the games using basic table blackjack strategy give the player the best payback percentage? If not, is there a basic strategy for video blackjack?
Yes. Any video representation of a card game in the state of Nevada must be dealt from a fairly shuffled deck. In other words you should expect the same kind of outcome as in a live game with the same rules. So basic strategy tables will also work for video blackjack.
[Bluejay adds: Every video blackjack game I've seen pays only even money on naturals, which significantly increases the house edge.] April 3, 2005
I have been using your simplified strategy for jacks-or-better video poker, and I wondered if you also had a super-simplified strategy for blackjack as well for those of us who don't play often enough to make memorization of the full chart worthwhile.
Yes! Here it is:
- Stand on hard 12-16 against dealer 2-6
- Double on 10,11 against dealer 2-9
- Always split eights, nines, and aces
- Stand on soft 18 or more
- Stand on hard 17 or more
- If rules 1-5 do not apply then hit
- Never take insurance
If played on a game with six decks and the dealer stands on a soft 17 the house edge using this strategy is 0.93%. The correct basic strategy will get you down to 0.41%. July 28, 2004
First, two columns ago, (May 30, 2004) someone asked about splitting aces and then doubling. You seemed to answer it as if the question meant you could double after you received the second card on top of the ace. I read the question as meaning you could double on the ace only, as if it were two cards that added up to 11. I think that would impact your response, but I'm not sure by how much.
Yes, I interpreted the question that the place could after the second card was dealt to the split aces. If the player could double on each ace alone then that would reduce the house edge by 0.21% (based on infinite decks). With an ace alone the player should opt to double against any dealer up card. July 11, 2004
Are there any basic strategy exceptions for doubling and splitting on the Internet when cash back applies to the total amount bet (thus giving the player an extra incentive to double or split). Please assume a cash back rate of 0.1%.
I could not find any hand where an extra 0.1% would cause a change in strategy. The closest case I could find, based on six decks and the dealer standing on soft 17, is A,4 against a dealer 4. In that hand doubling costs the player just under 0.3% in expected value compared to hitting. So if you can get 0.3% or more then double that hand. Other borderline hands I examined cost the player at least 1% to double or split, and I have never seen cash back that high in blackjack. July 4, 2004
While in northern Michigan I came across a new blackjack rule on splitting aces. Instead of resplitting you still only receive one card but you may double on it if you like. Can you tell me the effect of this rule?
I've never heard of this rule before. According to my analysis, being allowed to double after splitting aces decreases the house edge by 0.08%. However not allowing resplitting any pair, compared to resplitting to four hands, increases the house edge by 0.06%. So the combination of the two rules decreases the house edge by 0.02%. Following is the basic strategy of when to double after splitting aces, assuming 4 to 8 decks and the dealer stands on soft 17:
Soft 12 to soft 16: double against anything
Soft 17: double against 2 to 9
Soft 18: double against 3 to 6
Soft 19 to 21: never double May
30, 2004
You have the greatest gambling site in the world!! If I follow the basic strategy chart intended for "shoe" games in a double deck game what percentage am I sacrificing? Or if I use the double deck strategy in a shoe game what am I losing?
Thank you for the compliment. Assuming the dealer hits a soft 17 you are adding 0.012% to the house edge by playing 4-8 deck strategy in a two deck game. Playing double deck strategy in a 6 deck game costs 0.008%. To take this question further I wondered about a more extreme case of playing 4-8 deck strategy for the dealer standing on soft 17 in a single deck game where the dealer hits a soft 17. In this situation the incorrect basic strategy adds 0.038% to the house edge. May 22, 2004
My wife knows blackjack basic strategy but insists on being a 'hunch' player. What are the hands that are closest to 50-50 so that my wife can limit her hunch plays to those?
I'm pretty sure this has already been answered but it is a good question so I'll take it again. Here are some borderline plays, as evidenced by having a card counting index equal to zero. This list is for multiple decks where the dealer stands on soft 17 and double after a split is allowed. The best play is listed first and an alternative second.
- 9 against 2 (hit/double)
- 12 against 4 (stand/hit)
- 12 against 6 (stand/hit)
- 16 against 10 (hit/stand)
- Soft 13 against 5 (double/hit)
- Soft 15 against 4 (double/hit)
- 3,3 against 2 (split/hit) March 6, 2004
You make a good mathematical argument that the player should refuse insurance. However you don't make a good psychological argument. Most people would feel like a fool giving up a bird in the hand to lose a shot at 1.5 birds in the bush.
Oy. Gambling is about taking risks. The successful gambler does not try to maximize his probability of a net win each hand but takes risks to maximize his overall return. Both in gambling and in life one must sometimes take short term risks for long term gain. So think less about the present and more about the future. Feb. 13, 2004
First of all, I can't commend you enough for your web site and information that you continue to detail not only online, but on TV and in your newsletters. I know I can always turn to you whenever I have a thorny question about gambling math.
My question relates to what has come to be known in certain blackjack circles as The Flaw. In a nutshell it says that the original creators of basic strategy programmed a flaw into their calculations which has been recreated over and over again by other mathematicians when they've come up with their basic strategy. As one proponent of 'The Flaw' proclaims, "only 3 others that know post on this board. One is the recently retired IBM type, who confirms that to find the Flaw a computer simulation would have to be programmed to do so-therefore prior knowledge is REQUIRED. The math boyz are certain that they are right; but Thorp can't figure why so few win. One percent says it all."
So, what is The Flaw, and is there any truth to it? Or is it theoretically BS? I know it's easy to dismiss the nay sayers out of hand, but I'm intrigued. Thanks, Shane
Thanks for the kind words. This "flaw" theory is a load of crap, which is not surprising considering the cesspools where talk of it is usually found. It isn't the case that one person created the basic strategy and every other blackjack expert just copied it. Numerous mathematicians have developed the basic strategy from scratch and have all come up with the same thing. I find it highly unlikely that every one of them, including me, programs in the exact same flaw. July 14, 2003
I have a question about the two blackjack strategies your 4-8 deck blackjack strategy. First off, the underlying assumption before this question is that hitting on a soft 17 is an advantage to the dealer. Why does the strategy have the player double down more often in situations where the dealer might hit a soft 17,i.e, dealer shows an A or 6, but not double down in those same situations when the dealer stands on a soft 17? If hitting a soft 17 gives the house more of an advantage, why would one want to put more money on the table at those times? Is it possible that the two charts are switched?
You're right that in general hitting a soft 17 favors the dealer. However this is a generality and not true of every situation. When you have a strong hand of 18 to 21 you want the dealer to stand on a soft 17. However if you have a weak hand under 17 you want the dealer to hit a soft 17. An example of a strategy difference is you should double soft 19 against a 6 when the dealer hits a soft 17, and stand if the dealer stands on soft 17. The reason is that there is a good chance of having drawing a bad card on the double, resulting in 16 or less points. When the dealer hits a soft 17 he busts more often, making doubling a little safer in this example. May 26, 2003
Where can I buy nicely printed and laminated credit card sized versions of your basic strategy tables for 21? If you don't offer them--please do! - Steve from Tucson, U.S.A.
I'm glad you asked. You can get them through Custom Strategy Cards (Nov 13, 2007 update: That site is now defunct). These are my own blackjack and video poker strategies on nice wallet sized laminated cards. Aug. 31, 2002
Hi. Do you sell or recommend a basic blackjack strategy card .In the past I purchased some from Winning Publishing NV. Your Site is the very good. - Tom Moriarty from Lancaster, USA
Your timing with this question is perfect. Marsha Ness, the proprietor of Custom Strategy Charts is now ready to sell laminated blackjack and Spanish 21 strategy cards. The strategies come directly from me and there is a wide variety to choose from depending on the particular rules. As of this writing electronic payment options are not in place yet so you'll have to send a check by mail. July 18, 2001
I want to know the best blackjack strategy card for GamblingSoftware. The Wizards of Odds page doesn't carry a table for this software, but the Java-based games here are becoming increasingly popular. ñ Nevin from the Philippines
You can correctly use the Cryptologic basic strategy to play at a GamblingSoftware.com casino. Oct. 5, 2000
I was wondering if you thought continuous shufflers have an effect on basic strategy. I know they speed up the number of hands per hour which is usually bad for the player, but is basic strategy still effective in this instance? Doesn't basic strategy slightly change depending on the number of decks? - Danny from Mission Viejo, California
I first addressed this topic in my December 1, 2000, newsletter. For those who missed it I just added blackjack appendix 10 to my site, which explains the effect on the house edge under both a cut card and continuous shuffler game. To answer your question, no, the basic strategy does not change. Basic strategy is always developed based on a freshly shuffled shoe, which is always the case when playing against a continuous shuffler. Jan. 7, 2001
I was studying your appendix 1 on the blackjack site, and came across something odd. Basic strategy in a six deck game (with double after split, dealer stays on soft 17 etc. - all the usual strip rules), dictates that an A,2 against a dealer 5 is a double-down. Yet, on the appendix, the player's expected return is HIGHER if you hit, rather than double
(compare .1334 for hitting, vs. .126 for doubling). The same
is true for an A,4 v. a dealer showing a 4 (compare .0593 for hitting with .0584 for doubling down). All of the other splits and doubles work out. What's up with these two examples? Thanks in advance. - Fred Burnside from San Diego, USA
Appendix 1 is based on an infinite deck. Both hands you mention are borderline plays and the number of decks affects which play is better. For example A,4 against a 4 favors doubling with 26 decks and hitting with 27 decks. A,2 against a 5 also crosses over somewhere between 8 and an infinite number of decks. Jan. 7, 2001
I have 2 questions here. What is the house advantage on Battle Royale if a second tie wins 7 to 1? I am a Casino-on-net fan. What is the basic strategic for BJ? At some place it says they use 4 or 6 decks. - Dany Paradis from Montreal, Canada
For the benefit of those who don't know, Battle Royale is what Starnet calls Casino War. However Starnet pays 3:1 on the total amount bet. Perhaps what you mean to ask is what if they pay 7 for 1 on the original wager only, which would equate to the same thing. The house edge under these rules is 0.66%, as indicated in my Starnet review.
Casino on Net follows typical U.S. blackjack rules with the curious exception that if you split tens and draw an ace it pays 3:2 (I only know this because I saw it happen to another player in muli-player mode). However splitting tens is still a bad idea. The basis strategy is the same as for Cryptologic. Dec. 24, 2000
Do you have basic strategy for the following rules? Dealer takes 17-17, 18-18 and 19-19 ties, doubling after split is allowed, 3 resplits, no-peek, player can double 7-11 totals (soft and hard), dealer stands on soft 17, six decks. - Jari from Turku, Finland
Stanford Wong's Blackjack Count Analyzer is perfect for questions like this. Just plug in the rules and it produces an immediately basic strategy and is ready to run a simulation. Following is his basis strategy under these rules. I did a 31 million hand simulation using 'Blackjack Count Analyzer' which shows a house edge of 4.13% under these rules. When I was in Finland they had single zero roulette which has a much lower house edge than this game. Why the blackjack rules are so stingy in Finland I would like to know.
PLR DEALER PLR DEALER
23456789XA 23456789XA
21 ---------- soft 21 ----------
20 ---------- soft 20 ----------
19 ---------- soft 19 ----------
18 ---------- soft 18 +DDDd-++++
17 ---------+ soft 17 +++DD+++++
16 -----++--+ soft 16 +++DD+++++
15 -----+++++ soft 15 +++DD+++++
14 -----+++++ soft 14 ++++D+++++
13 -----+++++ soft 13 ++++++++++
12 +----+++++
11 DDDDDDDD++ pair A /////////+
10 DDDDDDDD++ pair 10 ----------
9 ++DDD+++++ pair 9 /////-/---
8 ++++++++++ pair 8 ///////--+
7 ++++++++++ pair 7 -////+++++
6 ++++++++++ pair 6 /////+++++
5 ++++++++++ pair 5 DDDDDDDD++
4 ++++++++++ pair 4 +++//+++++
pair 3 +////+++++
Insurance: No. pair 2 +////+++++
+ = hit, - = stand, D = Double if allowed otherwise hit, d = Double if allowed otherwise stand, / = split. Dec. 10, 2000
Regarding your exceptions to surrender in appendix six, how should I best adapt it to the Unified Gaming single-deck game with early surrender against the ace? Thanks for any help and great site. ñ Dave Palmer of Provo, USA
Thanks for the compliment. You should use appendix six only if the dealer is showing a ten in a Unified Gaming blackjack game. There are no exceptions to the Unified Gaming basic strategy when the dealer has an ace showing. Nov. 4, 2000
Please tell me where I can find a copy that I can print and carry in my purse on the odds for blackjack. I am just learning and I am not sure when to take a hit and when to stay. - Sue from Marquette, USA
One idea is to right click on one of my strategy charts, save the image, and then print it. Some casino gift shops sell basic strategy charts the size of a business card. However these charts have at least one mistake about half the time. After I move to Las Vegas
(early next year) I plan to make my own business cards
with a basic strategy chart on the back. Oct. 5, 2000
Q: Across the various blackjack strategies you provide on your site, does the standard deviation change much? I would guess that when DAS is allowed, one's results are more variable, but how much? Is there a good reference book that provides variance figures for various basic BJ strategies? -Nathan "Charles" Weed of University, Mississippi
A: Good question. Unfortunately I don't have exact standard deviation figures according to specific sets of rules. The 1.17 figure on my site is based on the 8 deck, stand on soft 17, double after split, Atlantic City game. If doubling after splitting were not allowed the standard deviation figure would surely decrease. Also with surrender there would also be a decrease. With fewer decks there would be more doubling and less splitting, I think in the favor of more overall but not by a marked degree. Sorry I couldn't provide any exact numbers. July 9, 2000
Q: Why are basic strategy blackjack charts set up with the apparent theory that the dealer has a "10" card in the hole. When in reality I believe that the odds are 9-4 against a "10" card being anywhere. Am I missing something? Your website is very interesting. Thanks a lot. - Eddie Cancienne from New Orleans, Louisiana
A: Assuming that the dealer has a 10 in the hole is just a memory device, it has nothing to do with the way the basic strategy was constructed. I can't stand in when I hear one player telling another, "you always assume the dealer has a ten in the hole." If this were true the player should hit a 19 against a 10, certainly that is an unreasonable play. Just forget that old adage about the ten in the hole. June 18, 2000
Q: I am a 18 year-old from South Africa and I have recently become very interested in Blackjack. In all the casinos I have been to in South Africa (a grand total of 4), early surrender is offered. I was wondering if there are further situations when you should surrender with early surrender apart from the four situations for late surrender. I also wondered how much it cuts down the house advantage, and how effective it could be to exploit this rule while using a card counting system.
I would be grateful for any sort of help or direction regarding these matters. - Paul Botha from South Africa
A: I'm going to defer to Stanford Wong's Basic Blackjack for this one. On page 80 and 81 he indicates when to surrender given when early surrender is offered. Here is the list which is accurate whether or not the player can double after a split.
- 5 Vs. Ace
- 6 Vs. Ace
- 7 Vs. Ace
- 12 Vs. Ace
- 13 Vs. Ace
- 14 Vs. 10
- 14 Vs. Ace
- 15 Vs. 10
- 15 Vs. Ace
- 16 Vs. 9
- 16 Vs. 10
- 16 Vs. Ace
- 17 Vs. Ace
- 3+3 Vs. Ace
- 6+6 Vs. Ace
- 7+7 Vs. 10
- 7+7 Vs. Ace
- 8+8 Vs. 10
- 8+8 Vs. Ace
According to Wong early surrender is worth 0.7% (which is a lot). On page 91 of Wong's Professional Blackjack he indicates index numbers for when to take advantage of early surrender assuming you are using his high-low count. If you play to use the information above I think you should consider buying Wong's book. May 6, 2000
Q: I have never been to Las Vegas so I was wondering are you allowed to use one of those cards for Black Jack that tells you when you should hit or stand, etc.. when you are sitting at a table. - Paul Harrington of Calgary, Canada
A: Yes you can, they even sell them in the casino gift shops. However it is bad etiquette to slow down the game by checking the card frequently. The least you should try to do is memorize what to do with a hard total, these situations happen most of the time. If you get a soft hand or a potential split then feel free to check the card. Mar. 18, 2000
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