Ask the Wizard: Craps - Betting Systems
Have you ever heard of the craps pro? I can honestly say that I have been playing this craps method for a year now and over the long run I have been winning 60% of my bets with the casino paying me odds on the place bets. I'm one of the crazies out here that believe that this works. I have tried many systems and spent thousands of dollars believing there must be a way to beat the casino over the long haul. Nothing worked until I purchased this method. I'm a true believer and my wallet shows it, or maybe hundreds of hours at the table is not enough time to prove it to be true I'll let you know how I do over the next year. If you haven't heard of this method than research it and prove me wrong.
|Return Table with 3-4-5X Odds|
|Pass line win||1||0.222222||0.222222|
|Pass line loss||-1||0.111111||-0.111111|
|Point of 4 or 10 & win||7||0.055556||0.388889|
|Point of 4 or 10 & lose||-4||0.111111||-0.444444|
|Point of 5 or 9 & win||7||0.088889||0.622222|
|Point of 5 or 9 & lose||-5||0.133333||-0.666667|
|Point of 6 or 8 & win||7||0.126263||0.883838|
|Point of 6 or 8 & lose||-6||0.151515||-0.909091|
The standard deviation per pass line bet is 4.915632.
As a moderate craps player who is of course interested in receiving every "comp" possible, could you give advice on the best betting (craps) strategy. Tried to find it in your GREAT web site.
— Ernie from Hernando Beach, Florida
I like your site very much. It is very informative. Thanks for putting out your thoughts. I noticed a betting strategy for craps suggested at Crappers Delight called "classic regression". In it he suggests, placing a 6 and 8, after a point is established. Then taking it down after one of them is hit. He said there are 10 combined ways to make the 6 and 8, but only 6 combined ways to make the 7. It sounds logical, but I've seen where you are able to show, that what appears logical on the surface is not so bright once it is analyzed. What are your thoughts on this strategy and what would the true odds be, if you did take the bets down after one hit?
What is the better system, or which gives me the better chance to win on craps? On the come out roll, I bet $10 on the don’t and $10 on the do, and then when a point comes out I lay full odds against the number. Or is it better to just play the don’t pass, and then lay the odds. I think getting passed the come out roll will increase my chances of winning.
— Ray from Plainfield, USA
I played craps for the first time the other night and went from $70 to $700 with small bets on the pass odds and field bets. I then lost it all down to $6 because my bets were too large (by the dealers suggestion), and gained it back to $1000 after slowing down. For this being the first time it seems like a very easy game to win if you have patience, was it beginners luck?
— Chris from Tyler, USA
In craps, could one gain an advantage over the house by making both a Pass and Don't Pass bet (one unit each) and then playing the Don't Pass odds? Although the occasional 12 would steal one unit here and there, it seems that the seven would have an advantage over the point. At triple odds one could take 3x on the 4&10, 2x on the 5&9 and 1x on the 6&8.
— Jon from Danville, New Hampshire
I love to play craps and would like your opinion on a conventional method of play. Pass line and two come bets with full double odds or with one come bet? Does having three different bets working superior to two?
— Richard from Binghampton, USA
In craps, does the house edge change if you make a don't pass bet then remove it if the point is 6 or 8? What if you remove it if the point is 6,8,5,or 9?
— Jon Moriarty from Danville, New Hampshire
I’d like your thoughts on this craps strategy. I think it’s a Patrick system for playing don’t pass. Bet one unit on both pass and don’t pass. Then lays odds on the don’t side. You can stop here or then make a don’t come bet. After the dc travels, take the odds off your don’t pass bet (if you don’t like to lay odds). So now you have a unit on the don’t come that pretty much got there with less risk. I know you can never get the advantage over the house, but this seems like a great way to play the don’t side. You eliminate the sevens on the come out roll. And only get hurt by the 12; or the 11 on your don’t come bet. P.s. Your site is the greatest.
I am a novice, just starting to play. My question concerns the "Five Count Doey/Don’t" System. The way I understand the system:
- Wait until the shooter establishes a point.
- Play both come/don’t come (same amount). Until you have a maximum of four numbers
- After the shooter has rolled five times without rolling a 7, take odds on all your numbers on the front side.
The rationale: Limit your exposure until you find a "qualified" (five rolls without a 7) shooter. Only betting the odds so there is no "house edge"! Can you compare this system with just playing pass/come and taking the odds?
— Don from Little Rock, Arkansas
The Kelly strategy for betting requires a positive edge to be effective. I play craps and I give the house less than a 1% edge. Once a week I get comps of $62. I gamble only 1 1/2 hours and my total betting doesn’t reach $3000. Theoretically I earn approximately $30 per session. Would the Kelly strategy be helpful to me?
— Jerry from Del Ray Beach, USA
The American Mensa Guide to Casino Gambling has the following "anything but seven" combination of craps bets that shows a net win on any number except 7. Here's how much MENSA advises to bet in the "Anything but 7" system:
- 5- place $5
- 6- place $6
- 8- place $6
- field- $5
- total= $22
They claim the house edge is 1.136%. How is that possible if every individual bet made has a higher house edge?
|Mensa Anything but Seven Combo|
|Number||Probability||Field||Place 5||Place 6||Place 8||Win||Return|
The reason the overall house edge appears to be less than the house edge of each individual bet is because the house edge on place bets is generally measured as expected player loss per bet resolved.
However, in this case the player is only keeping the place bets up for one roll. This significantly reduces the house edge on the place bets from 4.00% to 1.11% on the 5 and 9, and from 1.52% to 0.46% on the 6 and 8.
For you purists who think I am inconsistent in measuring the house edge on place bets as per bet resolved (or ignoring ties) then I invite you to visit my craps appendix 2 where all craps bets are measured per roll (including ties).
What is the best way to make money at craps consistently?
— Tibor from Bradenton
Is the "parity hedge" myth in craps true?
— Craig from Los Angeles
I have a question about a series of bets in craps. The strategy is called the "Iron Cross." It involves a bet on the 5, 6, 8, and the field. I read up on this, and found that this particular bet will pay on every roll that is not a 7. I was told that this gives you the lowest house edge. What are all the various odds and what-nots to go along with it?
— Carter from Calgary
This begs the question, why is this lower than the individual house edge of each bet made? It’s not. The reason it seems that way is the result of comparing apples to oranges. The house edge of place bets is usually expressed as the expected loss per bet resolved. Looking at the individual bets on a per-roll basis, the house edge on the 5 is 1.11%, and on the 6 and 8 is 0.46%, according to my craps appendix 2. Comparing apples to apples, the house edge is a weighted average of the house edge on the field, 5, 6, and 8, on a per-roll basis, or (5/22)×2.778% + (5/22)×1.111% + (6/22)×0.463% + (6/22)×0.463% = 1.136%.
What is your opinion of the 5-Count strategy in craps?
— Dr. Baker from Walnut Grove, MN
The way the 5-Count works is you start counting rolls as soon as a new shooter throws any point number. When you get to five rolls after you start counting, the shooter is deemed worthy, and you start betting. However, you if the 5th roll is not a point number, it doesn’t count.
The book says you will only be betting 43% of the time, which I agree with. It is common for craps players to not bet, bet small, or bet the don’t pass on new shooters, as a way to qualify him. Once a shooter has made a point, or thrown lots of point numbers, the other players will gain confidence in him, and start betting with him. So, this kind of strategy seems natural. When casinos rate your average bet, they don’t lower the average for betting nothing some of the time. However, sometimes they will dock your time, especially if you are betting big.
An alternative strategy is to wait until the shooter makes a point. Under this strategy you will only be betting 40.6% of the time, less than the 43.5% with the 5-Count.
Imagine a craps player who takes maximum odds, say 10x, on his pass line and come bets reducing the house edge to 0.18%. He avoids other bets that give the house a bigger edge. He is an "astute" right bettor in every way except this: he is determined to lose. Through bankroll management, and a determined effort to only leave the table a "loser," he hopes he can look back on his years of craps playing and say, "I wagered $1 million at the craps table over the years and gave back $50,000 to the house; because of my ’skill,’ I left 5% at the table." Is he deluding himself? Is he doomed, in spite of his efforts to leave the table a loser every time, to only give the house roughly 0.18% or $1800?
— Peter K. from Bellevue NE
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Excellent customer support
The thing that separates Bovada from the rest is its customer support. Many other online gaming companies outsource their support. It can be difficult getting a response from them, and if you do it is often slow and handled by somebody with little understanding of gambling or even of English. But Bovada’s support is handled by Bovada, and their support staff is actually knowledgeable and helpful.
I’m so confident that you’ll have a good experience with Bovada that if you have a problem getting paid and you can’t resolve it with them on your own, I’ll talk to them myself. I personally have known the Bovada management for about three years and always found them to be professional, friendly, and knowledgeable. I have also personally visited one of their call centers so I could see first-hand how they handle customer issues. (More on my mediation service.)
If you have a problem with any other casino besides Bovada, I can’t help you. I get complaints from players of other online casinos every day who have difficulty getting paid. However that isn’t my job nor my problem. If you play at Bovada after clicking through my site I’ll stand behind you 100%. Any place else and you’re on your own.