Ask the Wizard #224

For the benefit of other readers, the coefficient of skewness (skew) for any random variable is a measure of which direction has the longer tail. A negative skew means the most likely outcomes are on the high side of the distribution, offset by the extremes tending to be on the low side. A positive skew is the opposite, where the most likely outcomes are the low side, but with the extremes tending to be on the high side. The mean is less than the median with a negative skew, and greater with a positive skew. An exact formula can be found at Wikipedia , or lots of statistics books.

Loosely stated, skewness is going to correlate with how often you get a win in a session. In Jacks or Better, for the most part, you are not going to get a winning session over a few hours if you do not hit a royal. You can sit down at Double Double Bonus and be a winner after a few hours more often because of the big quad payouts. Because most people are subject to cognitive biases, the pain from a loss is twice the pain from a win. People do not really play Double Double Bonus because they like the variance, they play because they have a greater shot at winning. The following table shows some key statistics for four common video poker games. It is interesting to note that skew is greatest for Jacks or Better.

Key Video Poker Statistics
Statistic	JoB — 9/6	BP — 8/5	DDB — 9/6	DW — NSUD
Return	0.995439	0.99166	0.989808	0.997283
Variance	19.514676	20.904113	41.985037	25.780267
Skew	147.114643	134.412152	66.495372	101.23991
(Excess) Kurtosis	26,498	23,202	6,679	14,550

JoB — 9/6 = Full pay Jacks or Better
BP — 8/5 = Standard pay Bonus Poker
DDB — 9/6 = Standard pay Double Double Bonus Poker
DW — NSUD = "Not so Ugly Ducks" Deuces Wild

How can knowing this actually help the video poker player? I suppose one could say that a game with a large skew has a greater chance of a loss over a session of a few hours. For example, in Jacks or Better, if you don’t hit any royals, the house edge will probably eventually grind your bankroll down. However in a game like Deuces Wild or Double Double Bonus, the second highest wins can pull you out of the hole over a session. In other words, the skew keeps you from winning when you are not hitting royals. Knowing the skew won’t increase your odds, but it is mentally helpful to know what to expect. So, the next time you take a beating in 9/6 Jacks, blame it on the skew.

My thanks to Jeff B. for his help with this question.

Measured in terms of square feet of casino space, it is the Venetian in Macau. The most table games can be found at the Sands in Macau, and the most slots at Foxwoods in Connecticut. The following table shows some details.

Key Video Poker Statistics
Property	Locale	Casino Feet2	Table Games	Slots
Sands	Macau	229,000	1000	750
Venetian	Macau	456,000	870	3,000
Foxwoods	Connecticut	344,000	380	7,200
Mohegan Sun	Connecticut	300,000	392	6,780
MGM	Las Vegas	170,000	178	2,523
Wynn	Las Vegas	111,000	185	2,000

Source: CasinoCity.com .

For the benefit of other readers, a "pai gow" hand is one with seven singletons, and no straight or flush is possible. The probability that the dealer will have the same seven ranks, without using the joker, is 3⁷/combin(46,7) = 2,187/53,524,680 = 1 in 24,474.

The wages are pretty low, not much more than the minimum wage . The minimum wage in Nevada, as of this writing, it is $5.85/hour if health insurance is provided and $6.85 otherwise. However, tips can add to that significantly. At most casinos in Vegas, the dealers pool tips. The only exceptions I have heard of, where dealers keep their own tips, are Caesars Palace and Hooters. Following is a chart of average tips over an 8-hour shift for one week in November, 2008. These figures are quoted, with permission, from The Dealer’s News . My thanks to Ron Saccavino.

Average Tips — November 2008
Property	Avg. Tips
Wynn	$263
Hard Rock	$203
MGM	$158
Green Valley Ranch	$156
Harrah’s	$129
Sunset Station	$125
Bally’s	$123
Planet Hollywood	$118
South Point	$113
Monte Carlo	$111
Sahara	$66
Stratosphere	$65

Lest any experts in blackjack history correct me, Lawrence Revere has a chapter on the Revere Ten Count Strategy in his classic work Playing Blackjack as a Business . This strategy requires keeping two counts, one of tens, and one of everything else. Play and bet amount is then dictated by the ratio of these two counts. In my opinion, this strategy is too difficult to use. I have yet to meet anybody who actually practices this count.

The Speed Count requires only counting low cards, offset by adjustments in the number of hands played. There are no adjustments for the number of decks left, known as a "true count conversion." If you really hate negative numbers, you will probably never see one with the Speed Count, although one subtraction per round is required. The effectiveness and ease of use are a topic of hot debate in the blackjack community. For more information, please read my review .

If negative numbers are the only issue, my webmaster Bluejay notes that you could adjust any counting system that does not involve a true count conversion, like the Knock Out, by starting at a higher number. Of course, you should adjust all the index numbers by the same amount.