Betting the NBA
Last update: Jan. 19, 2009
Introduction
This page addresses betting on basketball, specifically the NBA. The figures in this pages are based on 22,966 historical games, from seasons beginning 1987 to 2006. It is assumed the reader knows basic sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, please visit my page on sports betting first.
Betting Against the Spread
It is my understanding that the rule of thumb for handicapping basketball is that home court advantage is worth 4 points. The average closing point spread is -3.88 on the home team. However, in reality, the home team wins by only 3.82 points, on average. The visiting team also wins 1.27% more often than home teams. This could just be random variation. It also could be that the market is more enamored of betting home teams, creating a better bet the other way.
Historically speaking, the probability of winning has been 0.69% higher for underdogs than favorites. This is not surprising. In football the value in betting underdogs is even stronger. It is no big secret that recreational gamblers tend to bet on favorites, creating value on underdogs.
The following table shows the probability of winning/losing/pushing and the house advantage (laying 110, 108, and 105), according to whether the player bets the home or away team, and favorite or underdog.
| Betting Against the Spread |
| Bet |
Prob. Win |
Prob. Loss |
Prob. Push |
House Edge (Laying 110) |
House Edge (Laying 108) |
House Edge (Laying 105) |
| Home Underdogs | 48.45% | 49.47% | 2.08% | 5.43% | 4.61% | 3.33% |
| Home Favorites | 48.34% | 49.67% | 1.99% | 5.72% | 4.91% | 3.63% |
| Home Pick | 48.45% | 51.55% | 0.00% | 7.50% | 6.68% | 5.40% |
| Away Underdogs | 49.67% | 48.34% | 1.99% | 3.19% | 2.35% | 1.04% |
| Away Favorites | 49.47% | 48.45% | 2.08% | 3.47% | 2.64% | 1.33% |
| Away Pick | 51.55% | 48.45% | 0.00% | 1.59% | 0.73% | -0.64% |
| All Home | 48.37% | 49.64% | 1.99% | 5.66% | 4.85% | 3.57% |
| All Away | 49.64% | 48.37% | 1.99% | 3.25% | 2.41% | 1.10% |
| All Favorites | 48.65% | 49.34% | 2.02% | 5.11% | 4.29% | 3.00% |
| All Underdogs | 49.34% | 48.65% | 2.02% | 3.80% | 2.97% | 1.66% |
| Overall | 49.01% | 49.01% | 1.99% | 4.46% | 3.63% | 2.33% |
So, if you must bet basketball blindly, your best bet is to bet on visiting underdogs, at a house advantage of 3.19%, when laying 110. 72% of the time the home team is favored, so there should be no shortage of opportunities to bet the other way.
Betting Overs and Unders
There is no significant difference between betting overs and unders in the NBA. The following table shows both the probability of winning, losing, and pushing on both, and the house edge laying 110, 108, and 105. The small difference between overs and unders is statistically negligible.
| Overs and Unders |
| Bet |
Prob. Win |
Prob. Loss |
Prob. Push |
House Edge (Laying 110) |
House Edge (Laying 108) |
House Edge (Laying 105) |
| Over | 49.22% | 49.15% | 1.63% | 4.41% | 3.58% | 2.28% |
| Under | 49.15% | 49.22% | 1.63% | 4.53% | 3.71% | 2.41% |
Betting the Money Line
The following table shows the probability of winning and fair money line for point spreads from 1 to 17. I smoothed out the ups and downs, so take this one with a grain of salt.
| Money Lines |
| Spread |
Prob. Underdog |
Prob. Favorite |
Fair Line Underdog |
Fair Line Favorite |
| +1 | 48.25% | 51.75% | +107 | -107 |
| +1.5 | 47.00% | 53.00% | +113 | -113 |
| +2 | 45.74% | 54.26% | +119 | -119 |
| +2.5 | 43.62% | 56.38% | +129 | -129 |
| +3 | 41.54% | 58.46% | +141 | -141 |
| +3.5 | 39.49% | 60.51% | +153 | -153 |
| +4 | 37.48% | 62.52% | +167 | -167 |
| +4.5 | 35.50% | 64.5% | +182 | -182 |
| +5 | 33.56% | 66.44% | +198 | -198 |
| +5.5 | 31.65% | 68.35% | +216 | -216 |
| +6 | 29.78% | 70.22% | +236 | -236 |
| +6.5 | 27.94% | 72.06% | +258 | -258 |
| +7 | 26.14% | 73.86% | +283 | -283 |
| +7.5 | 24.37% | 75.63% | +310 | -310 |
| +8 | 22.64% | 77.36% | +342 | -342 |
| +8.5 | 20.94% | 79.06% | +377 | -377 |
| +9 | 19.28% | 80.72% | +419 | -419 |
| +9.5 | 17.65% | 82.35% | +466 | -466 |
| +10 | 16.06% | 83.94% | +523 | -523 |
| +10.5 | 14.72% | 85.28% | +579 | -579 |
| +11 | 13.43% | 86.57% | +645 | -645 |
| +11.5 | 12.20% | 87.80% | +720 | -720 |
| +12 | 11.02% | 88.98% | +807 | -807 |
| +12.5 | 9.90% | 90.10% | +910 | -910 |
| +13 | 8.83% | 91.17% | +1033 | -1033 |
| +13.5 | 7.82% | 92.18% | +1179 | -1179 |
| +14 | 6.86% | 93.14% | +1358 | -1358 |
| +14.5 | 5.96% | 94.04% | +1579 | -1579 |
| +15 | 5.11% | 94.89% | +1857 | -1857 |
| +15.5 | 4.32% | 95.68% | +2216 | -2216 |
| +16 | 3.58% | 96.42% | +2693 | -2693 |
| +16.5 | 2.9% | 97.10% | +3351 | -3351 |
| +17 | 2.27% | 97.73% | +4305 | -4305 |
Buying and Selling Extra Points
In basketball, as well as football, you can buy extra points if you risk more money. Most casinos in Las Vegas will at most let you buy a half-point, if you lay 120, instead of the usual 110. Some Internet casinos will let you buy or sell lots of points.
Before going further, consider the following graph, showing the probability for margins of victory from 1 to 20. Per the rules, a basketball game can never end in a tie. Also note the rather low probability of a win of one point, compared to 2 to 9. It is my understanding that the reason for this is that if a team is down by two points in the last seconds, with the ball, they will go for a tie, pushing the game into overtime, rather than attempt a 3-point shot. Starting at a margin of victory of 10, the probabilities start to drop off.
With a tie impossible, point spreads of -0.5, 0, and 0.5 would all be worth the same. There is also a relatively small benefit in going from -1 to 0, or 0 to +1, because of the low probability of a margin of victory of 1. Most sports books take this into account. At Bet365 and Olympic they jump three spots, going right from -1 to +1 when buying half points.
The following two tables show the number of points purchased (negative for selling points), the lines at Bet365 and Olympic, the probability of winning, losing, and a push, the fair line, and house edge at Bet365 and Olympic. The first table assumes the player always buys the points, except if the starting point spread is zero. The second table assumes the player buys the points only if buying them does not cause the adjusted spread to cross zero. Both tables assume the Bet365/Olympic rule where buying a half point off of -1 moves the spread directly to +1.
The house edges are lower for buying points in the second table, which shows that the bettor should not buy the points if it causes the point spread to cross a tie. However, if selling points, it is a good idea to cross a tie.
If your only choice is to buy one half-point, and lay 120, or buy none, and lay 110, it is a toss up. The house edge is 0.01% less buying none, but that is within the margin of error. At Bet365, the house edge is minimized buying 2.5 points, for a house edge of 2.05%. At Olympic, either buy just one half a point, or none at all. If you can find a sports books that lets you buy more than one half a point, and charges 10 cents for each, buy as many as they will let you.
| Buying/Selling Extra Points on the Spread — Bet except if Spread Is Zero |
| Points Purchased |
Bet365 Pays |
Olympic Pays |
Prob. Win |
Prob. Loss |
Prob. Tie |
Fair Line |
House Edge Bet365 |
House Edge Olympic |
| -8.5 | 375 | | 19.53% | 79.22% | 1.25% | 406 | 5.98% | |
| -8 | 350 | | 20.78% | 77.86% | 1.36% | 375 | 5.13% | |
| -7.5 | 325 | | 22.14% | 76.51% | 1.35% | 346 | 4.55% | |
| -7 | 300 | | 23.49% | 75.03% | 1.49% | 319 | 4.56% | |
| -6.5 | 270 | | 24.97% | 73.51% | 1.52% | 294 | 6.07% | |
| -6 | 245 | | 26.49% | 71.82% | 1.69% | 271 | 6.91% | |
| -5.5 | 220 | | 28.18% | 70.19% | 1.62% | 249 | 8.19% | |
| -5 | 200 | | 29.81% | 68.5% | 1.70% | 230 | 8.88% | |
| -4.5 | 180 | | 31.50% | 66.73% | 1.76% | 212 | 10.03% | |
| -4 | 160 | | 33.27% | 64.71% | 2.03% | 195 | 11.48% | |
| -3.5 | 150 | | 35.29% | 62.93% | 1.78% | 178 | 9.99% | |
| -3 | 140 | | 37.07% | 61.04% | 1.89% | 165 | 9.14% | |
| -2.5 | 130 | | 38.96% | 59.06% | 1.98% | 152 | 8.41% | |
| -2 | 120 | | 40.94% | 57.02% | 2.04% | 139 | 7.90% | |
| -1.5 | 110 | | 42.98% | 55.08% | 1.94% | 128 | 7.81% | |
| -1 | 105 | | 44.92% | 52.99% | 2.09% | 118 | 5.83% | |
| -0.5 | 100 | | 47.01% | 51.01% | 1.98% | 109 | 4.00% | |
| 0 | -110 | -110 | 48.99% | 48.99% | 2.02% | 1 | 4.45% | 4.45% |
| 0.5 | -120 | -120 | 51.01% | 47.01% | 1.98% | -109 | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| 1 | -130 | -150 | 52.99% | 44.92% | 2.09% | -118 | 4.16% | 9.59% |
| 1.5 | -140 | -170 | 55.08% | 42.98% | 1.94% | -128 | 3.63% | 10.58% |
| 2 | -150 | -190 | 57.02% | 40.94% | 2.04% | -139 | 2.92% | 10.92% |
| 2.5 | -160 | -220 | 59.06% | 38.96% | 1.98% | -152 | 2.05% | 12.11% |
| 3 | -180 | -250 | 61.04% | 37.07% | 1.89% | -165 | 3.16% | 12.65% |
| 3.5 | -200 | -280 | 62.93% | 35.29% | 1.78% | -178 | 3.83% | 12.82% |
| 4 | -220 | -310 | 64.71% | 33.27% | 2.03% | -195 | 3.85% | 12.39% |
| 4.5 | -245 | -410 | 66.73% | 31.5% | 1.76% | -212 | 4.27% | 15.23% |
| 5 | -270 | -450 | 68.5% | 29.81% | 1.7% | -230 | 4.44% | 14.58% |
| 5.5 | -300 | -490 | 70.19% | 28.18% | 1.62% | -249 | 4.79% | 13.86% |
| 6 | -325 | -530 | 71.82% | 26.49% | 1.69% | -271 | 4.4% | 12.94% |
| 6.5 | -350 | -570 | 73.51% | 24.97% | 1.52% | -294 | 3.97% | 12.08% |
| 7 | -375 | -610 | 75.03% | 23.49% | 1.49% | -319 | 3.48% | 11.19% |
| 7.5 | | -670 | 76.51% | 22.14% | 1.35% | -346 | | 10.72% |
| 8 | | -730 | 77.86% | 20.78% | 1.36% | -375 | | 10.11% |
| 8.5 | | -790 | 79.22% | 19.53% | 1.25% | -406 | | 9.50% |
| Buying/Selling Extra Points on the Spread — Bet except if Spread Is Zero, or Moves across Zero |
| Points Purchased |
Bet365 Pays |
Olympic Pays |
Prob. Win |
Prob. Loss |
Prob. Tie |
Fair Line |
House Edge Bet365 |
House Edge Olympic |
| -8.5 | 375 | | 19.1% | 79.74% | 1.16% | 418 | 8.12% | |
| -8 | 350 | | 20.28% | 78.24% | 1.48% | 386 | 7.25% | |
| -7.5 | 325 | | 21.79% | 76.9% | 1.32% | 353 | 6.10% | |
| -7 | 300 | | 23.05% | 75.43% | 1.52% | 327 | 6.29% | |
| -6.5 | 270 | | 24.57% | 73.94% | 1.49% | 301 | 7.59% | |
| -6 | 245 | | 26.03% | 72.2% | 1.78% | 277 | 8.43% | |
| -5.5 | 220 | | 27.81% | 70.59% | 1.60% | 254 | 9.42% | |
| -5 | 200 | | 29.36% | 68.84% | 1.80% | 234 | 10.12% | |
| -4.5 | 180 | | 31.22% | 67.08% | 1.70% | 215 | 10.89% | |
| -4 | 160 | | 32.99% | 64.94% | 2.07% | 197 | 12.15% | |
| -3.5 | 150 | | 35.11% | 63.14% | 1.75% | 180 | 10.47% | |
| -3 | 140 | | 36.87% | 61.15% | 1.97% | 166 | 9.53% | |
| -2.5 | 130 | | 38.84% | 59.21% | 1.95% | 152 | 8.72% | |
| -2 | 120 | | 40.86% | 57.05% | 2.09% | 140 | 8.01% | |
| -1.5 | 110 | | 42.97% | 55.12% | 1.92% | 128 | 7.85% | |
| -1 | 105 | | 44.88% | 53.00% | 2.12% | 118 | 5.88% | |
| -0.5 | 100 | | 47.00% | 51.04% | 1.96% | 109 | 4.04% | |
| 0 | -110 | -110 | 48.99% | 48.99% | 2.02% | 1 | 4.45% | 4.45% |
| 0.5 | -120 | -120 | 51.04% | 47% | 1.96% | -109 | 4.46% | 4.46% |
| 1 | -130 | -150 | 53% | 44.88% | 2.12% | -118 | 4.11% | 9.55% |
| 1.5 | -140 | -170 | 55.12% | 42.97% | 1.92% | -128 | 3.6% | 10.55% |
| 2 | -150 | -190 | 57.05% | 40.86% | 2.09% | -140 | 2.83% | 10.84% |
| 2.5 | -160 | -220 | 59.21% | 38.84% | 1.95% | -152 | 1.83% | 11.93% |
| 3 | -180 | -250 | 61.15% | 36.87% | 1.97% | -166 | 2.90% | 12.41% |
| 3.5 | -200 | -280 | 63.14% | 35.11% | 1.75% | -180 | 3.54% | 12.56% |
| 4 | -220 | -310 | 64.94% | 32.99% | 2.07% | -197 | 3.47% | 12.04% |
| 4.5 | -245 | -410 | 67.08% | 31.22% | 1.70% | -215 | 3.84% | 14.86% |
| 5 | -270 | -450 | 68.84% | 29.36% | 1.80% | -234 | 3.86% | 14.06% |
| 5.5 | -300 | -490 | 70.59% | 27.81% | 1.60% | -254 | 4.28% | 13.4% |
| 6 | -325 | -530 | 72.20% | 26.03% | 1.78% | -277 | 3.81% | 12.41% |
| 6.5 | -350 | -570 | 73.94% | 24.57% | 1.49% | -301 | 3.45% | 11.6% |
| 7 | -375 | -610 | 75.43% | 23.05% | 1.52% | -327 | 2.93% | 10.68% |
| 7.5 | | -670 | 76.9% | 21.79% | 1.32% | -353 | | 10.31% |
| 8 | | -730 | 78.24% | 20.28% | 1.48% | -386 | | 9.56% |
| 8.5 | | -790 | 79.74% | 19.10% | 1.16% | -418 | | 9.00% |
There are no significant totals to avoid when buying extra points off of an under or over bet. The difference between the predicted total and actual total tends to be greater than that of the point spread. Thus, buying extra points off of an under or over bet is not as effective, give the same price. The following table shows the number of points purchased (negative for selling points), the lines at Bet365, the probability of winning, losing, and a push, the fair line, and house edge at Bet365. The bottom line is buying points is not as effective off the total as the spread.
| Buying/Selling Extra Points on the Total |
| Points Purchased |
Bet365 Pays |
Prob. Win |
Prob. Loss |
Prob. Tie |
Fair Line |
House Edge Bet365 |
| -7 | 160 | 33.23% | 65.25% | 1.52% | 196 | 12.08% |
| -6.5 | 155 | 34.75% | 64.55% | 0.71% | 186 | 10.69% |
| -6 | 150 | 35.45% | 63.00% | 1.55% | 178 | 9.82% |
| -5.5 | 145 | 37.00% | 62.37% | 0.63% | 169 | 8.72% |
| -5 | 140 | 37.63% | 60.88% | 1.49% | 162 | 8.20% |
| -4.5 | 135 | 39.12% | 60.23% | 0.66% | 154 | 7.42% |
| -4 | 130 | 39.77% | 58.56% | 1.66% | 147 | 6.86% |
| -3.5 | 125 | 41.44% | 57.93% | 0.63% | 140 | 6.13% |
| -3 | 120 | 42.07% | 56.38% | 1.55% | 134 | 5.90% |
| -2.5 | 115 | 43.62% | 55.69% | 0.69% | 128 | 5.53% |
| -2 | 110 | 44.31% | 54.05% | 1.64% | 122 | 5.31% |
| -1.5 | 105 | 45.95% | 53.3% | 0.75% | 116 | 5.06% |
| -1 | 100 | 46.70% | 51.48% | 1.82% | 110 | 4.79% |
| -0.5 | -105 | 48.52% | 50.82% | 0.67% | 105 | 4.61% |
| 0 | -110 | 49.18% | 49.18% | 1.63% | 100 | 4.92% |
| 0.5 | -120 | 50.82% | 48.52% | 0.67% | -105 | 7.40% |
| 1 | -130 | 51.48% | 46.7% | 1.82% | -110 | 9.22% |
| 1.5 | -140 | 53.30% | 45.95% | 0.75% | -116 | 11.02% |
| 2 | -150 | 54.05% | 44.31% | 1.64% | -122 | 12.41% |
| 2.5 | -160 | 55.69% | 43.62% | 0.69% | -128 | 14.10% |
| 3 | -170 | 56.38% | 42.07% | 1.55% | -134 | 15.14% |
| 3.5 | -180 | 57.93% | 41.44% | 0.63% | -140 | 16.66% |
| 4 | -190 | 58.56% | 39.77% | 1.66% | -147 | 17.01% |
| 4.5 | -195 | 60.23% | 39.12% | 0.66% | -154 | 16.06% |
| 5 | -205 | 60.88% | 37.63% | 1.49% | -162 | 16.25% |
| 5.5 | -215 | 62.37% | 37.00% | 0.63% | -169 | 17.18% |
| 6 | -225 | 63.00% | 35.45% | 1.55% | -178 | 16.77% |
| 6.5 | -235 | 64.55% | 34.75% | 0.71% | -186 | 17.11% |
| 7 | -250 | 65.25% | 33.23% | 1.52% | -196 | 17.83% |
Teasers
The following tables show what basketball teasers pay at some sports books in Las Vegas, listed in order of best to worst odds.
| 4-Point Basketball Teasers — Odds Survey |
| Sports Book |
2 Teams |
3 Teams |
4 Teams |
5 Teams |
6 Teams |
7 Teams |
8 Teams |
| Golden Nugget | +100 | +180 | +300 | +450 | +700 | +1000 | +1500 |
| Lucky's | -110 | +180 | +300 | +450 | +700 | +900 | +1200 |
| Harrah's | -110 | +160 | +280 | +450 | +600 | | |
| MGM-Mirage | -110 | +160 | +250 | +400 | +600 | | |
| Cal Neva | -110 | +160 | +250 | +400 | +600 | +800 | +1000 |
| Venetian | -120 | +150 | +200 | +350 | +500 | | |
| 4.5-Point Basketball Teasers — Odds Survey |
| Sports Book |
2 Teams |
3 Teams |
4 Teams |
5 Teams |
6 Teams |
7 Teams |
8 Teams |
| Lucky's | -120 | +160 | +250 | +400 | +600 | +800 | +1000 |
| Harrah's | -120 | +150 | +260 | +400 | +550 | | |
| Cal Neva | -120 | +145 | +220 | +350 | +500 | +700 | +900 |
| MGM-Mirage | -120 | +140 | +200 | +350 | +500 | | |
| 5-Point Basketball Teasers — Odds Survey |
| Sports Book |
2 Teams |
3 Teams |
4 Teams |
5 Teams |
6 Teams |
7 Teams |
8 Teams |
| El Cortez/South Point | -110 | +150 | +200 | +350 | +500 | +700 | +800 |
| Golden Nugget | -120 | +150 | +200 | +350 | +500 | +800 | +1200 |
| Lucky's | -130 | +150 | +200 | +350 | +500 | +700 | +900 |
| Harrah's | -130 | +140 | +240 | +350 | +500 | | |
| Cal Neva | -130 | +135 | +200 | +300 | +450 | +600 | +800 |
| MGM-Mirage | -130 | +120 | +180 | +300 | +400 | | |
| 5.5-Point Basketball Teasers — Odds Survey |
| Sports Book |
2 Teams |
3 Teams |
4 Teams |
5 Teams |
6 Teams |
7 Teams |
8 Teams |
| El Cortez/South Point | -120 | +130 | +180 | +300 | +400 | +600 | +700 |
| 6-Point Basketball Teasers — Odds Survey |
| Sports Book |
2 Teams |
3 Teams |
4 Teams |
5 Teams |
6 Teams |
7 Teams |
8 Teams |
| Golden Nugget | -130 | +110 | +160 | +250 | +350 | +600 | +1000 |
| El Cortez/South Point | -130 | +110 | +150 | +250 | +300 | +500 | +600 |
If you must bet an NBA teaser, never cross or touch a tie. For example, on a 4-point teaser, only tease underdogs, or favorites of 4.5 points or more. Off of totals there are no significant numbers to avoid. The following tables show the probability of winning and house edge following this strategy.
| 4-Point Basketball Teasers — House Edge |
| Pick |
Pays |
Prob. Win (Spread) |
Prob. Win (Total) |
House Edge(Spread) |
House Edge (Total) |
| 2 | -120 | 43.97% | 35.47% | 19.39% | 34.98% |
| 2 | -110 | 43.97% | 35.47% | 16.05% | 32.29% |
| 2 | 100 | 43.97% | 35.47% | 12.06% | 29.07% |
| 3 | 150 | 29.16% | 21.12% | 27.1% | 47.2% |
| 3 | 160 | 29.16% | 21.12% | 24.19% | 45.09% |
| 3 | 180 | 29.16% | 21.12% | 18.36% | 40.86% |
| 4 | 200 | 19.33% | 12.58% | 42.0% | 62.27% |
| 4 | 250 | 19.33% | 12.58% | 32.33% | 55.98% |
| 4 | 280 | 19.33% | 12.58% | 26.53% | 52.2% |
| 4 | 300 | 19.33% | 12.58% | 22.66% | 49.69% |
| 5 | 350 | 12.82% | 7.49% | 42.30% | 66.29% |
| 5 | 400 | 12.82% | 7.49% | 35.89% | 62.55% |
| 6 | 600 | 8.5% | 4.46% | 40.49% | 68.77% |
| 6 | 700 | 8.5% | 4.46% | 31.98% | 64.31% |
| 7 | 800 | 5.64% | 2.66% | 49.26% | 76.09% |
| 7 | 900 | 5.64% | 2.66% | 43.62% | 73.43% |
| 7 | 1000 | 5.64% | 2.66% | 37.99% | 70.78% |
| 8 | 1000 | 3.74% | 1.58% | 58.88% | 82.60% |
| 8 | 1200 | 3.74% | 1.58% | 51.4% | 79.43% |
| 8 | 1500 | 3.74% | 1.58% | 40.19% | 74.69% |
| 4.5-Point Basketball Teasers — House Edge |
| Pick |
Pays |
Prob. Win (Spread) |
Prob. Win (Total) |
House Edge(Spread) |
House Edge (Total) |
| 2 | -120 | 46.57% | 36.75% | 14.62% | 32.62% |
| 3 | 140 | 31.78% | 22.28% | 23.73% | 46.53% |
| 3 | 145 | 31.78% | 22.28% | 22.14% | 45.41% |
| 3 | 150 | 31.78% | 22.28% | 20.55% | 44.3% |
| 3 | 160 | 31.78% | 22.28% | 17.37% | 42.07% |
| 4 | 200 | 21.69% | 13.51% | 34.94% | 59.48% |
| 4 | 220 | 21.69% | 13.51% | 30.6% | 56.78% |
| 4 | 250 | 21.69% | 13.51% | 24.09% | 52.73% |
| 4 | 260 | 21.69% | 13.51% | 21.92% | 51.37% |
| 5 | 350 | 14.8% | 8.19% | 33.40% | 63.15% |
| 5 | 400 | 14.8% | 8.19% | 26.00% | 59.06% |
| 6 | 500 | 10.1% | 4.96% | 39.40% | 70.22% |
| 6 | 550 | 10.1% | 4.96% | 34.35% | 67.73% |
| 6 | 600 | 10.1% | 4.96% | 29.3% | 65.25% |
| 7 | 700 | 6.89% | 3.01% | 44.86% | 75.93% |
| 7 | 800 | 6.89% | 3.01% | 37.97% | 72.92% |
| 8 | 900 | 4.7% | 1.82% | 52.96% | 81.76% |
| 8 | 1000 | 4.7% | 1.82% | 48.26% | 79.93% |
| 5-Point Basketball Teasers — House Edge |
| Pick |
Pays |
Prob. Win (Spread) |
Prob. Win (Total) |
House Edge(Spread) |
House Edge (Total) |
| 2 | -130 | 49.14% | 38.20% | 13.05% | 32.42% |
| 2 | -120 | 49.14% | 38.20% | 9.90% | 29.97% |
| 2 | -110 | 49.14% | 38.20% | 6.18% | 27.08% |
| 3 | 120 | 34.45% | 23.61% | 24.21% | 48.07% |
| 3 | 135 | 34.45% | 23.61% | 19.04% | 44.53% |
| 3 | 140 | 34.45% | 23.61% | 17.32% | 43.34% |
| 3 | 150 | 34.45% | 23.61% | 13.87% | 40.98% |
| 4 | 180 | 24.15% | 14.59% | 32.38% | 59.15% |
| 4 | 200 | 24.15% | 14.59% | 27.55% | 56.23% |
| 4 | 240 | 24.15% | 14.59% | 17.89% | 50.4% |
| 5 | 300 | 16.93% | 9.02% | 32.28% | 63.93% |
| 5 | 350 | 16.93% | 9.02% | 23.82% | 59.42% |
| 6 | 400 | 11.87% | 5.57% | 40.66% | 72.14% |
| 6 | 450 | 11.87% | 5.57% | 34.73% | 69.35% |
| 6 | 500 | 11.87% | 5.57% | 28.79% | 66.56% |
| 7 | 600 | 8.32% | 3.44% | 41.76% | 75.89% |
| 7 | 700 | 8.32% | 3.44% | 33.44% | 72.45% |
| 7 | 800 | 8.32% | 3.44% | 25.12% | 69.00% |
| 8 | 800 | 5.83% | 2.13% | 47.51% | 80.84% |
| 8 | 900 | 5.83% | 2.13% | 41.68% | 78.71% |
| 8 | 1200 | 5.83% | 2.13% | 24.18% | 72.33% |
| 5.5-Point Basketball Teasers — House Edge |
| Pick |
Pays |
Prob. Win (Spread) |
Prob. Win (Total) |
House Edge(Spread) |
House Edge (Total) |
| 2 | -120 | 51.47% | 39.4% | 5.64% | 27.77% |
| 3 | 130 | 36.92% | 24.73% | 15.08% | 43.13% |
| 4 | 180 | 26.49% | 15.52% | 25.83% | 56.54% |
| 5 | 300 | 19.00% | 9.74% | 23.99% | 61.03% |
| 6 | 400 | 13.63% | 6.11% | 31.83% | 69.43% |
| 7 | 600 | 9.78% | 3.84% | 31.53% | 73.14% |
| 8 | 700 | 7.02% | 2.41% | 43.87% | 80.73% |
| 6-Point Basketball Teasers — House Edge |
| Pick |
Pays |
Prob. Win (Spread) |
Prob. Win (Total) |
House Edge(Spread) |
House Edge (Total) |
| 2 | -130 | 54.03% | 40.95% | 4.42% | 27.55% |
| 3 | 110 | 39.71% | 26.2% | 16.61% | 44.98% |
| 4 | 150 | 29.19% | 16.77% | 27.03% | 58.08% |
| 4 | 160 | 29.19% | 16.77% | 24.11% | 56.41% |
| 5 | 250 | 21.45% | 10.73% | 24.91% | 62.45% |
| 6 | 300 | 15.77% | 6.87% | 36.93% | 72.54% |
| 6 | 350 | 15.77% | 6.87% | 29.04% | 69.10% |
| 7 | 500 | 11.59% | 4.39% | 30.46% | 73.64% |
| 7 | 600 | 11.59% | 4.39% | 18.87% | 69.25% |
| 8 | 600 | 8.52% | 2.81% | 40.37% | 80.32% |
| 8 | 1000 | 8.52% | 2.81% | 6.29% | 69.08% |
The bottom line about NBA teasers is that they are usually a terrible bet, especially off of totals.
Parlays
The following table shows what some Las Vegas sports books pay on off the board parlays, listed from best to worst.
| Off the Board Parlays — Odds Survey |
| Sports Book |
2 Teams |
3 Teams |
4 Teams |
5 Teams |
6 Teams |
7 Teams |
8 Teams |
| Golden Nugget | 2.6 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 11 to 1 | 22 to 1 | 40 to 1 | 75 to 1 | 140 to 1 |
| MGM-Mirage | 2.6 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 10 to 1 | 20 to 1 | 40 to 1 | 80 to 1 | 150 to 1 |
| Lucky's | 2.6 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 10 to 1 | 20 to 1 | 40 to 1 | 80 to 1 | 150 to 1 |
| El Cortez/South Point | 2.6 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 10 to 1 | 20 to 1 | 40 to 1 | 75 to 1 | 150 to 1 |
| Harrah's | 2.6 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 10 to 1 | 20 to 1 | 40 to 1 | 75 to 1 | 140 to 1 |
| Venetian | 2.6 to 1 | 6 to 1 | 10 to 1 | 20 to 1 | 40 to 1 | | |
The next table shows the house edge of parlays, according to the number of picks and what it pays. This table assumes the probability each pick is correct is 50%, and ignores ties.
| Off the Board Parlays — House Edge |
| Pick |
Pays |
Prob. Win |
House Edge |
| 2 | 2.6 | 25.00% | 10.00% |
| 3 | 6 | 12.50% | 12.5% |
| 4 | 10 | 6.25% | 31.25% |
| 4 | 11 | 6.25% | 25.00% |
| 5 | 20 | 3.13% | 34.38% |
| 5 | 22 | 3.13% | 28.13% |
| 6 | 40 | 1.56% | 35.94% |
| 7 | 75 | 0.78% | 40.63% |
| 7 | 80 | 0.78% | 36.72% |
| 8 | 140 | 0.39% | 44.92% |
| 8 | 150 | 0.39% | 41.02% |
If you mix just one event into a parlay that does not pay -110, then a calculation is made to determine the payoff odds. The calculation is made as if every bet were made independently. For example, if you made a three team parlay with odds of each event of -110, +200, and -300, then the payoff odds would be (21/11)*(3/1)*(4/3) = 7.6364 for 1, or 6.6364 to 1. If you used this method of calculation in making all -110 bets, then your payoff odds would be better, except for a 3-event parlay. The following table shows the house edge under MGM-Mirage parlay and the calculation method.
| MGM-Mirage vs. Calculation Parlay Comparison |
| Pick |
MGM-Mirage Pays |
Calculation Pays |
MGM-Mirage House Edge |
Calculation House Edge |
| 2 | 2.6 | 2.645 | 10.00% | 8.88% |
| 3 | 6 | 5.958 | 12.50% | 13.03% |
| 4 | 10 | 12.283 | 31.25% | 16.98% |
| 5 | 20 | 24.359 | 34.38% | 20.75% |
| 6 | 40 | 47.413 | 35.94% | 24.36% |
| 7 | 80 | 91.424 | 36.72% | 27.79% |
| 8 | 150 | 175.446 | 41.02% | 31.08% |
A nice trick to get out of the stingy off the board pay table on parlays is to mix in any event that does not pay -110. For example, if player X makes an 8-team parlay at an MGM-Mirage sports book, all at -110, he stands to be paid 150 to 1. If player Y makes an 8-team parlay, with 7 picks at -110, and one at -120, he will be paid (21/11)7×(22/12) – 1 = 168.4446 to 1. So, player Y substitutes a game that is more likely to win, and stands to get paid significantly more. If there are no sides that pay anything other than -110, then consider mixing in a money line bet.
Source
This page was based on NBA records from seasons starting in 1987 to 2006.
©1998-2010 Wizard Of Odds Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
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