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BLR Technologies Software Warning
Introduction
I first became aware of the allegation that online casinos using BLR Technologies software were not playing fairly in craps when a member named clempops4 posted a complaint on my forum on October 28, 2011. At first, the member claimed to have won 25% only out of 3,200 bets made. However, the member didn't say what he bet on. Thus, I was not immediately impressed with his case.
Then he posted nine videos on YouTube showing his play. From the videos he seemed to be making pass and don't pass bets only. To win only 25% of 3,200 decision on the pass or don't pass would be near impossible. In addition, the videos were analyzed various different ways by the player himself as well as other users, in an effort to determine why the player was losing so much. Regardless of the reason, a reasonable doubt was raised in my mind, and I decided to test the software myself.
The way I did my test was to make pass line bets only, recording not just win or loss, but how I won or lost. In particular, a win/loss on the come out roll, or by the point rolled. The date I played was October 31, 2011, and everything is recorded on video, should the need arise to document what happened. Following are my results of 328 bets made.
Pass Bet Experiment
| Event | Probability | Expected Observations | Actual Observations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Come out roll win | 22.22% | 72.89 | 33 |
| Point 4 win | 2.78% | 9.11 | 4 |
| Point 5 win | 4.44% | 14.58 | 10 |
| Point 6 win | 6.31% | 20.71 | 7 |
| Point 8 win | 6.31% | 20.71 | 11 |
| Point 9 win | 4.44% | 14.58 | 10 |
| Point 10 win | 2.78% | 9.11 | 6 |
| Come out roll loss | 11.11% | 36.44 | 66 |
| Point 4 loss | 5.56% | 18.22 | 26 |
| Point 5 loss | 6.67% | 21.87 | 25 |
| Point 6 loss | 7.58% | 24.85 | 39 |
| Point 8 loss | 7.58% | 24.85 | 38 |
| Point 9 loss | 6.67% | 21.87 | 31 |
| Point 10 loss | 5.56% | 18.22 | 22 |
| Total | 100.00% | 328.00 | 328 |
The "chi-squared goodness of fit test" is useful to compare actual to expected results with data such as this where there are multiple possible outcomes. In this case, the chi-squared statistic is 89.61 with 13 degrees of freedom. The probability of results this far from expectations or more is 1 in 6,036,452,793,441.
What was even more striking is that in every way I could have won, my results were less than expected, while in every way I could have lost, they were more. Following are my overall win/loss results:
Wins = 81
Losses = 247
That is a win rate of 24.70%. The fair probability of winning a pass line bets is 49.29%. Could it just be bad luck? Let's see...
- The standard deviation on the number of wins in 328 rolls is 9.054.
- The expected number of wins in 328 rolls is 161.681
- Actual wins was 81
- Deficit in wins is 80.681
- Number of standard deviations south of expectations is 80.681/9.054 = 8.911.
- The probability of being 8.911 standard deviations or more south of expectations is 1 in 3,940,183,270,432,190,000.
To put that in perspective, the odds of winning the Powerball Lottery are 1 in 146,107,962. It would be 184 times easier to win the Powerball 2 out of 2 times than to be as unlucky as I was in this craps game.
In addition, Dr. Eliot Jacobson performed his own tests. His results were even more unlikely than mine. He summarized his results in a post on my forum.
Because of the extreme bias in the results I obtained, as well as the consistent bias documented by others, I am warning players against playing at any casino using BLR Technologies software, especially in craps. Blacklisted casinos that choose to continue using this software, despite the evidence that the software isn't fair, are:
- Legends
- World Wide Wagering
After the news broke about this story I received the following statement from 5Dimes casino, which previously hosted BLR software in their "cash back" casino:
With the present accusations and facts against the BLR casino platform, the 5Dimes group has chosen to remove this casino platform from our multiple casino lineup.
BLR was given ample time to address the concerns of forum members as well as our direct questions. No acceptable answers were given, so the casino platform was removed.
A management decision was made to eliminate that casino and focus on expanded offerings with the other casino platforms.