 Ask the Wizard: |
Texas Holdem Poker |
| Questions I've answered about Texas Holdem:
|
Hello, I am a seventh grader from Hawaii. I am doing a science fair project on poker and shuffling. I am using your charts about the win percentage of pocket Texas Hold 'Em hands, according to the number of players in the game. I was hoping you could answer a few questions that would help me with my project:
-
How did you come up with the percentages found in the charts?
-
If you used a computer program, how did you develop it and how long did it take?
-
You stated that you started the Wizard of Odds as a hobby. Did experimenting change as your site became more well-known? Why or why not?
- The two-player table was done by a brute-force looping program, that cycled through all 1225 possible opponent cards, and 1,712,304 possible community cards. For three to eight players, looping would have taken a prohibitive amount of time, so I did a random simulation.
-
I write almost all my programs in C++, including both programs I just mentioned. The rest are in Java or PERL. I mostly copied and pasted code from other poker-based programs. The new code only look about a day to write.
-
Yes, I started my site as a hobby in June 1997. It wasn't until January 2000 that I accepted advertising, and tried to make a business out of it. It has gone through three different domains over the years. Here is what it looked like in May 1999. The purpose of the site has always remained the same, a resource for mathematically-based gambling strategy. Through the years, I have just been adding more games and material. One experiment was providing my NFL picks for the 2005 season, which was an abject failure. December 8, 2008
I've heard in poker games the term "strangle the blind" or similar
to that. What is that? — Michele from Pocatello
I asked my friend Jason about this one. Here is what he said:
"I think what she means is a blind straddle. What that means is the person who acts after the big blind makes a raise of two times the big blind, before looking at his or her hand. This is usually done to stimulate action at a table where the pots have been small with lots of pre-flop folding. Let’s say it’s a $6-$12 limit hold ‘em game, with the small blind $3 and the big blind $6. I am in the position next to the big blind and I straddle the pot by making it $12 before I look at my cards." — Jason. February 21, 2008
Hi almighty wizard. My friends and I had a bet about Texas Hold'Em. They said 7/2 always is the worst hand you can have, no matter what your opponent has. But I said 6/2 would have less chance of winning facing 7/2 pre-flop. Who is right? - Yester from Amsterdam
If a 7/2 off-suit faced off against a 6/2 off-suit, the possible outcomes would be as follows, according to my Texas Hold 'Em Calculator.
7/2 wins: 57.07%
6/2 wins: 25.13%
Tie: 17.80%
However that doesn't prove that 7/2 is the superior hand in general. Considering only your own hand, according to my various power rating tables, 7/2 off-suit is worse than 6/2 off-suit. For four or fewer players, the worst hand is 3/2 off-suit.
So, if the bet was phrased as who would win between 6/2 and 7/2 offsuit, then you win. However that doesn't prove that 7/2 is the better hand in general, only for that one situation. April 12, 2007
I just started playing no limit Texas Hold'Em. My question is, when the small and large blinds have been posted and everyone has either checked or called and then comes the flop, what is the minimum bet that has to be made? Does it have to be at least equal to the large blind, or can it be of any amount (including less then the large blind)? Is it different after the turn and river cards? - Rick from Alpena
In a no limit game the minimum bet is whatever the big blind is. This is true at before and after the flop. April 12, 2007
I have a very complicated question, which divided a friend and me. In a three-person Texas Hold’em game two players hold K/3 off-suit, and one player has K/2 off-suit. Before the flop, which is the stronger hand the K/2 or either K/3? – Mirza from Uppsala, Sweden
Great site! A must see for Vegas newbies and those thinking of striking it rich through gambling. Is there an optimal ratio to wager between the ante and the bonus bet in the Texas Hold'em Bonus table game? Is it simply 10% bonus to ante since you calculated 90.4% of bonus bets are losers? – Thomas from Austin
Thanks for the kind words. I get asked this question a lot regarding every game where there are two or more bets to choose from. You should bet 100% on the better bet. In the case of Texas Hold ’em bonus the element of risk on the ante is 0.53% and on the bonus bet it is 8.54%, assuming Vegas rules both ways. For comparing one bet to another I believe the element of risk should be used. So in this case, the ratio of ante bet to bonus bet should be infinity, because the bonus bet should be zero. Same thing with Three Card Poker, which is usually the venue this question is asked about. In that game you should bet 100% on the ante and 0% on the Pairplus. March 29, 2007
In Colorado, each wager is capped at $5. In Texas Hold'em Bonus, the min/max ante is $5 and the min/max for the flop, turn and river is also $5. What is the impact of the flop bet equaling the ante as opposed to being twice the ante? – Matt from Denver.
Assuming the player followed the strategy for the conventional Las Vegas rules, where the player wins the ante on a straight or higher, the house edge would go up from 2.04% to 3.51%. This I’m sure could be lowered with rule specific strategy changes. However, it takes my computer 71 days to analyze this game so please forgive me if I end my answer here.
November 10, 2006
I don’t know a lot about poker, but I do find it fun, so maybe you can clear something up for me. On a recent trip to Vegas with my wife, we stayed at Arizona Charlie’s Decatur. Our reason for staying here was because they had advertised $2-$4 Hold ‘em on their website. On our first morning, we walk down to the poker room and put our names in for $2-$4. I notice the poker guy writing our names under the columns for $4-$8. So I told him we wanted $2-$4 (there was a column labled “$2-$4” on the same sheet). He said it was $2-$4: $2 before the flop, $4 after the flop, and $8 after the turn and river. I described to him what I meant by $2-$4: $2 before and after the flop and $4 after the turn and river. He laughed at us like we didn’t know what we were talking about and said that’s not how the game is played. We ended up playing poker at the Gold Coast the remainder of our trip. Is this type of betting normal for poker rooms? (I ended up telling the poker room supervisor if we could afford $4-$8 Hold ‘em, we wouldn’t be staying at Arizona Charlie’s.) – Mike from Philadelphia, PA
I agree that a "2/4" game means the bets are in $2 units before the turn and $4 after the turn. However, the small blind is likely be $1. It sounds like when Arizona Charlie’s is calling a game "2/4" they are referring to the blinds, which would mean a small blind of $2, and a big blind of $4, which would imply $8 bets after the turn. I’ve never heard this usage before so I don’t blame you for being surprised.
p.s. I later received the following from Anthony, a poker room supervisor.
I am a poker room supervisor. I was just writing to let you know about the correct verbage for the poker limits in Texas Hold'em. If as game is referred to as $2/4. It is referring to the bets. (A game is only referred to by the blinds if it is No-Limit.) $2 pre flop and post flop,$4 on the turn and the river.A game that is listed as $2/$4/$8 (which is exactly what I suspect the previous letter writer was actually refering to, is $2 pre-flop,$4 post-flop,$8 turn and river.It is also possible to have a game listed as $2/$4/$6/$8. Just passing the information on, good poker supervisors want people to have as much information as possible.
August 9, 2006
Putting ethical considerations aside for the moment, what is the best way to go about colluding in poker (cash games and tournaments)?
As I have said many times, poker is one of my weakest games when it comes to gambling. For this one I turned to Tony Guerrera, author of Killer Poker by the Numbers, to be published January 2007.
Tony's response was two pages long. To summarize one technique is to build up a pot with the two colluders reraising each other, in the interests of pulling more money into from other players or driving other players out. In tournament play another technique is to dump chips to just one player. For more details please see Tony's reply in its entirety.
May 31, 2006
In your recent Ask the Wizard column there was a question about a player showing cards before delcaring a decision in Hold'Em. Depending on house rules, this can be allowed in a heads up situation, where no other player is involved. (IE: It's a hand in a ring game that is down to 2 players, OR it is a heads-up tournament) In a standard tournament you cannot expose your cards early (even if you are heads up with another player) becuase you are theoretically affecting everyone else still alive in the tournament. -- Ryan from Renton, WA
You are the third person to claim that J.B.’s answer was incorrect. To get a disinterested third opinion I asked the poker foreman at the Red Rock hotel/casino. He said that exposing cards is not allowed in a tournament or if more than two players are still in the hand. However with only two players left in a cash game hand if one of them wants to be a fool and expose his cards that would be allowed at the Red Rock.
May 31, 2006
I made an all-in bet after the flop, the only guy left in the hand at the time thinks for a few seconds, shows me his hand. The cards never touched the table, he didn't say a word, but I took this as him folding. I proceeded to muck my cards, and grab the chips, and he states that he hasn't folded yet. Now he has seen my two cards, decides to call, and wins on the river card. Is this legal or not? -- Craig M. from Brockville
Poker is one of my weaker games when it comes to gambling so I turn again to J.B. for this one. Here is what he said.
That move is completely illegal. Anytime someone shows his cards to an opponent, the hand is dead. The only exception is when both players have declared themselves "all-in." At that point both hands are shown and the hand is completed. In this case, the guy that showed the cards to his opponent would forfeit the hand and the other guy would win.
After I got this reply I recalled a scene in a movie, I think Stuey, in which one player offers to turn over one of his cards, chosen by the other player, for $100. I asked J.B. if the scene was realistic. Here is his response to that question.
This always used to happen in tournaments and was perfectly okay back then. It was around 2001 or 2002 that this rule was formally changed in almost all card rooms. I was in a tournament last week and was low on chips. I moved all-in with AQ suited. Everyone folded to the big blind who had lots of chips. After about two minutes of him thinking, he showed me the KQ he had and then went back to thinking about whether to call. I called the supervisor over and said he showed me his cards before making a decision and the hand should be dead. He agreed with me, the hand was automatically declared dead, and he was given a five-minute penalty where he had to leave the table, so it cost him about five hands. The blinds and antes were high, so the penalty cost him several thousand tournament chips.
May 18, 2006
In your March 20 column, you answer a question about turning your Hold'em hand over once all-in and action is complete. You mentioned your friend was sort of unsure, so I can tell you that in virtually every major card room in America, the rule is this: In a NL tournament, you MUST turn your hand over as soon as all betting action is complete (i.e., all remaining players are all in. This speeds up play as it allows the winning hand to be determined much more quickly.
In a NL cash game, it is OPTIONAL to turn over your all-in hand... in fact doing so is the mark of a novice and some consider it rude to turn it over before the river. So there you have it. - Pete from NY
I would like to respond to the question last week about turning over the cards in an all-in situation. I believe I read that one of the main reasons they require the cards to be shown in a situation such as the one above is more specific to tournament play. Requiring to show the cards helps identify possible collusion and the act of dumping chips from one player to another to assist a certain player in getting a chip advantage. - Ed from Indianapolis
Is it required to flip over your cards if you call a player going all in? I've seen this done on television numerous times, but can I just wait until then end of the hand? - Chad from Fargo
According to various sources it is required to turn your cards over in a tournament game, but optional in a cash game.
March 20, 2006
We seem to have a debate in our office about showing your cards in Texas Hold'em. Can a player show his hole cards to the table if he decides to fold, even though there are players still betting? Is there an actual rule? - Rick from Ottawa, Canada
This is in very poor poker etiquette. If you did that in Vegas you would probably be warned not to do it again the first time. A second time and you would probably be made to leave the table.
Dec. 13, 2005When I play online poker, are the cards 100% set (as they would be with a real deck of cards) when the hands begin or does the RNG keep 'spinning' before each card is dealt and thus each card is random? - Andy from Indianapolis
Each card is random whether the RNG is 'spinning' before each card is dealt or not. As for whether the RNG keeps spinning, I don't know, but mathematically it doesn't make any difference.
Nov. 2, 2005
I'm confused about your claim in the September 25, 2005 column that a suited 5/6 is the best hand to have against pocket aces. While your program is undoubtedly right and squares with all the other programs, I am still a little puzzled as to why 5/6 is better than 6/7 (in the sense of losing less as opposed to winning more), especially when there are several obvious hands in which it is worse, namely the fact that the A234 set of straights all lose to four aces when that's the fifth card, whereas the corresponding 2345 straight doesn't have tis problem. There are some other anomalies I'm looking at, but what is interesting to me is that what seems like a pure logic problem is far from straightforward and requires a machine assist to guide intuition. - Jonathan F. from New York, NY
Okay, a suited 5/6 against pocket aces, both of different suits, will win 22.87% of the time, tie 0.37%, and lose 76.75%. A suited 6/7 will win 22.88%, tie 0.32%, and lose 76.80%. So the suited 6/7 will win 0.01% more. However the suited 5/6 is better because it ties 0.05% more. The reason for this seems to come down to the straights. There are going to be more waits to form a straight on the board if all the mid-cards in left in the deck. Removing a 7, as opposed to a 5, makes it more difficult to make straights with the remaining cards, thus making ties less likely, and thus the expected value less. Oct. 18, 2005
Party poker has added a side bet: the odds are 7 to 1 on the flop being all red or all black. (You must choose the correct color.) Is this a sucker bet, or should I be asking how bad of a sucker bet is this? Thanks for the great site. - Kerry T. from Austin, TX
Thanks for the compliment. The probability of that the flop will all be the same of a particular color is combin(26,3)/combin(52,3) = 2600/22100 = 2/17 = 11.765%. The expected return on this bet is (2/17)*7 - (15/17) = -1/17 = -5.882%.
Oct. 18, 2005
In "Ken Warren Teaches Texas Hold 'Em" he states that against Pocket Aces (where the suits are the same color) that no other hand will win more often than 6/5 suited of the opposite color. I accept the fact that this hand will win 22.89% of the time in the above situation. However, there are twelve ways to arrange pocket aces, and only 2 of them include the situation above. My question is then: What is the best starting hand against 2 random aces? - Chopper from Baldwin
Using my 2-player hold 'em calculator we can see the expected value
(probability of winning less probability of losing) is
greatest with a suited 5 and 6, whether or not one of the aces share the same suit as the 5 and 6. So against a random set of pocket aces the suited 5,6 is still best. To correct you, if you have a suited 5 and 6 and you know somebody else has pocket aces there is a 50% chance that one of them match your cards in suit. Sept. 25, 2005
I am new to Texas Hold'em and my first book on the subject was Play Poker Like the Pros by Phil Hellmuth. After comparing his 'Top Ten' Hold'em hands with yours, I have noticed major differences. For example, he has 7-7 as the tenth best and you rank this hand far down the list. There are other major discrepancies. I trust your analyses of various casino games and I wonder how your lists could be so different. Thank you. -- Scott from Ruston
Poker is a hard game to advise on because the behavior of other players is unknown. My model assumes all players stay in until the end of the hand, for the sake of simplicity. While I respect Phil's opinion, Get the Edge at Low-Limit Texas Hold'em by Bill Burton lists hands in three groups, and 7-7 is the lowest of pairs to play only in middle or late position. He says 6-6 should be played only in late position. In other words he doesn't seem to think highly of 7-7 either. Sept. 18, 2005
I signed up at the one of the biggest and most recommended online poker sites. In the beginning I could not lose. I am not that good and almost got the impression they were letting me win. After a few winning sessions, I could not win to save my life. Moreover, it seemed like in a number of instances after I threw away lousy cards pre-flop, the flop would have been a gold mine. It happened more times than one would expect. When I was down to my last nickel, I miraculously got good cards which enabled me to play longer
(although I eventually lost). I saw this happen to someone
else at the table. There are a couple of other things that seemed suspicious, e.g., more times than not if I or someone had a pocket pair, there always seemed to be another pocket pair. I was playing for not alot of money in a $2/$4 game. I just could not shake the feeling that something was off. I am not going to mention the site name but it is one of the largest premier sites that everyone recommends. Am I paranoid? -- Jeffrey from Coral Springs, Florida
I think you're just paranoid. Sept. 4, 2005
In Texas hold em if a player accidentally shows his cards before betting round is complete is that player's hand dead? - Jeannine from Elgin
No. It would still be a live hand. Aug. 28, 2005
I would deeply appreciate it if you could answer my question for me. I have e-mailed several poker pro's including the Canadian one (Blount). Not one has answered my question. Most of them never even wrote back, including Blount. My question is - Could you please tell me the formula for figuring out the odds and percentages of getting the first two cards in hold'em and the percentage of that particular hand beating the other hands-assuming you know what they are-like you see on TV. I already know the formula and the easy way of figuring out you making your hand after the flop. I'm aware of the poker calculator but I would like to know the formula for my own knowledge. You hear about the pro's knowing all the odds. I'm beginning to think it's a bunch of bunk because not one person has answered my question. Thank you very much for taking all the time to read this. - Don from Niagara Falls, Ontario
There is no easy formula. Personally my program cycles through all the remaining cards and records how the number of hands that win for each player and takes a percentage based on those totals. I imagine everyone else either does that or is random simulation based. Aug. 21, 2005
[Bluejay adds: As for your doubting that pros really know the poker odds because they didn't write back to you -- didn't it occur to you that another likely explanation is that they didn't care to serve as a free helpdesk to the whole world? Britney Spears must be a fraud because she never wrote back to me, either.]
At a friendly home game of poker we were down to two players in a hand of Texas Hold 'em. I was out of the hand at looked at my neighbor's cards. He was about to fold when I blurted out that he had a straight, which he obviously didn't notice. The other player, with a weaker hand, said this was a breach of poker etiquette. Was he right?
Yes, he was. When playing poker if you are out of the hand, stay out. I don't make an issue over players still in the game voluntarily showing their cards to other players, but I still don't like it. However if you are out of the hand and see other cards you should keep your mouth shut. What is even more annoying is when somebody folds a hand and then proceeds to advise his girlfriend still in the hand. Offering advice is a major breach of etiquette if you are privy to information the player doesn't have, namely the cards that you folded. Jan. 23, 2005
I'm glad to hear that you've gotten into playing Texas Hold'em. I love the game and I'm winning online, but just barely. I've read more than a dozen books on Poker but I wanted to get your opinion on a couple of points
1. How do you feel about "Position"? Example: Do you think there are really hands that are profitable from late position but should never be played from early position?
2. What about "Pot Odds"? I understand the concept, but I've layed down a lot of hands that would have been winners, simply because I didn't have the correct odds to stay in and draw.... The charts on your website suggest that the strongest starting hands have a certain "Expected Value" if never folded. Do you recommend seeing these hands through to the river unless it's obvious that you're beaten (reguardless of pot odds)?
Thank you for your time. DM Washington State
First, I'm still just a beginner so am not the best one to ask. Position is very important in hold'em. The later your position the more information you have about your opponents' cards by the time it is your turn. For example if you pair the middle card on the flop, and it is check to you and you are last, then you can feel comfortable raising knowing that probably nobody paired the high card. However when you are in early position you never know how many raises you'll see by the time the betting goes around the table. If you have a good, but not a great hand, and you raise it may get reraised by players with stronger hands. If you check with such a hand it may check all the way around and you missed a chance to build up the pot and scare other players out. So don't just bet the value of your own cards, instead you have to weigh them against everyone else's cards. The later you are to play the more you will know about the other player's cards by the time it is your turn.
Pot odds is an important concept. As in any form of gambling the value of a bet depends on your probability of winning, the amount of the bet, and the amount of the win. The following table shows some common situations. The probability column shows the probability of making a straight or flush. The pot odds column shows the minimum number of bet units already in the pot for betting to be a good bet, assuming you will definitely win if you make your hand (unless you have the nut flush this is a big if).
| Frequent Draws |
| Hand |
After |
Probability of Making Hand |
Pot Odds |
| 4 to a flush |
Flop |
34.97% |
1.86 |
| 4 to an outside straight |
Flop |
31.45% |
2.18 |
| 4 to an inside straight |
Flop |
16.47% |
5.07 |
| 4 to a flush |
Turn |
19.57% |
4.11 |
| 4 to an outside straight |
Turn |
17.39% |
4.75 |
| 4 to an inside straight |
Turn |
8.70% |
10.50 |
There are lots of other factors to consider. One could write an entire book about it, and in fact many people have. Personally I recommend Get the Edge at Low-Limit Texas Hold'em by Bill Burton as a introductory book on hold'em. About my charts, no, definitely do not trust in a good starting hand the entire way through. There will be lots of times when you should fold a pair of aces. My tables are meant to only help the player bet before the flop. After the flop the expected value of your hand will likely change substantially. Oct. 17, 2004
How did you decide to simulate 5,197,920,000 games of 10-hands each for your Texas Hold'em page? Is that number significant?
I set my simulator to run a certain amount of time. Every 10,000 hands the program checks the time and when it has passed the ending time it stops wherever it is. September 23, 2004
This page covers general Holdem questions only.
| Questions I've answered about Texas Holdem:
|
©1998-2010 Wizard Of Odds Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Privacy/Terms
Contact
Advertise
About Us
Links
| 
