 Ask the Wizard: |
Caribbean Stud Poker |
I'm curious about the break even point on the Carribean Stud in
Sweden, since the jackpot is a bit different. The jackpot costs 5 Kronor and pays 200 for a flush, 400 for a full house, 2,000 for 4 of a kind, 20,000 for a straight flush and 100% for a royal flush.
Thank you in advance.
— Pelle from Malmoe, Sweden
The rate of return is 34.53%, plus 3.08% for every 100,000 Kronor in the jackpot. The breakeven meter is 2,126,825 Kronor. March 4, 2008
This is in regards to your answer in the Caribbean Stud question in column #185. It's my understanding that if two straight flushes are dealt in the same hand, the person to the dealer's LEFT would be the first one to take 10% of the jackpot total. This is because the person to the dealer's left was technically the first person to receive the straight flush. The two casinos I've worked at have actually paid from left to right on CS in case a scenario like this ever occurs. — L
Thanks, I stand corrected. I thought I heard somewhere that the first hand to the right would get paid first, because the dealer pays from the right. However your rationale makes sense too. June 2, 2007
At Caribbean Stud at Sycuan Casino (San Diego CA), 2 people both almost had straight flushes. The pit said that they would SPLIT 10% of the pot instead of each receiving 10% or the 2nd straight flush receiving 10% after the first straight flush received his 10%. Is that the correct way to pay off? If two people get full houses, they each receive the same amount out of the progressive jackpot so I would like to know what happens when there are two straight flushes. Thank you. – Judith from Chula Vista
I don't think that is fair, but I have heard of other casinos following that rule. The way I think the rule should be followed, and the way most casinos do it, is one player receives the full 10% of the jackpot, and the other 10% of whatever they reseed the jackpot to. Most casinos reseed the jackpot at $10,000. This begs the question, which player should get 10% of the full jackpot? Some argue the player to the dealer's right would get it, because his hand is adjudicated first. Others argue the player to the dealer's left, because he received his hand first. I have received passionate e-mails both ways. I tend to side with those who say the player to the dealer's left would be paid first. It may depend on what the table games manager decides to do at the particular casino. March 18, 2007Hi Michael. Awesome website! You've answered a few questions similar to mine, but not exactly. Simply put: Do you think Caribbean Stud Poker is a "good" game to play? Of course the odds may not be as good as blackjack, but it seems to be a pretty solid game to play and possibly win money at. What are your thoughts? – Parham from Atlanta
Thanks. To answer your question, no, I don’t think it is a good game. The house edge is too high. If you are looking for a big win you could play a progressive betting system in blackjack, pressing your bets as you win. Of course this comes at the cost of frequent smaller losses.
September 13, 2006
I would like to find out what the breakeven point is for the Caribbean Stud Progressive Jackpot Side Bet for a payoff table that I saw in Northern Indiana that is not included on your Caribbean Stud page. The table I am referring to is the same as your Table 3 except that the payoff for a straight flush is a fixed $5,000 instead of 10% of the jackpot. I saw it at Blue Chip Casino in Michigan City, Indiana, and was told by other players that that is the standard table in Northern Indiana (in Southern Indiana, your Table 3 is standard). Thanks much for the wealth of information you provide on your site.
- Kevin from Cincinnati, OH
For the benefit of my readers, table 3 pays $500 for a four of a kind, $100 for a full house, and $50 for a flush. The breakeven meter on the Northern Indiana side bet pay table is $369,290.00.
March 5, 2006
A local casino is eliminating their Carribean Stud game, but by MGC rules they have to pay out the whole jackpot first. The table is $5 ante and $1 Progressive side bet. They are making the payouts Flush-150, Full House-300, 4 of a kind-1500, Straight Flush- Whole Jackpot (155,000), on 12/1. From my calculations my edge on the side bet is some insane 270% player edge, but almost all of that is in the straight flush. Just looking at the lower 3 payouts the player edge is 8.7%. Is this enough to overcome the house edge on the main bet of 5.25% or so? How do I combine the two edges? Obviously the bet is a winner if I think I have a chance to make a straight flush, but if I presume I have no chance to make a straight flush, is the game worth playing? Thanks for your time. - James from St. Louis
Coincidentally, I heard of a Vegas casino doing the same thing because it wanted to remove its Caribbean Stud game. Here is a general formula for calculating the expected return when a straight flush pays the full jackpot:
(((5108*FL+3744*FH+624*FK+40*J)/2598960)-M*0.052243-1)/(M+1)
where
FL = Flush win,
FH = Full house win,
FK = Four of a kind win,
J = Jackpot amount,
and M = Minimum ante bet.
In your case we have (((5108*150+3744*300+624*1500+40*155000)/2598960)-5*0.052243-1)/(5+1) = 36.858%.
So, the player advantage is 36.858% of the combined ante plus $1 side bet, or an expected profit of $2.21 per hand.
Dec. 13, 2005What seat at the Caribbean poker table should I try
for? Does it make a difference? Are there generally six
spots?
If you play the side bet then you should try to
sit as far to the left as possible. If you don't make the
side bet it doesn't matter. The reason is, if two more
players get a straight flush or higher the player
furthest to the left will get the benefit of the full
meter because the dealer pays players from her right to
left. Subsequent players will get less after paying the
first player. In the event of two royal flushes the first
player would get the full meter and the second only
$10,000, which is what the meter is generally reset to.
However, the odds of this are extremely unlikely. I would
just play where you have the most elbow-room and are
furthest away from any smoking players. Finally, yes,
there are generally six spots.
August 23, 2004
What happens if two players get a royal flush, both of
who made the progressive side bet, in Caribbean Stud
Poker?
I believe what happens in this situation is the
player to the dealer's right would win the progressive
jackpot and the other one would win only $10,000. This is
because the dealer pays players from right to left so
player to the right would be paid first, the meter would then be reset
to $10,000, and then the second player would be paid. However, I
think the second player would have a legitimate complaint
on his hands. The probability of this happening in a full
table is 1 in 20,103,110,301. So, I would doubt this has
ever happened or ever will happen.
May 30, 2004
I read about someone winning 1.3 million at an Online
Casino in Caribbean Stud and not being paid because they
used robot play. What is robot play, how does it win, and
why is it illegal?
First, the game was Caribbean 21, not Caribbean
Stud. The casino this money was won from alleges that the
player used robot play, which is against the casino's terms and
conditions. If this is true (the player denies it) then
it is within the right of the casino to forfeit the winnings. Robot
play is a program that can read the cards on the screen
and can play against the casino by itself, by simulated
mouse moves and clicks, or keyboard actions. Some casinos
don't allow it because they have some games with a
theoretical return slightly over 100%. Robot play could
ensure nice expected hourly profits for the person using
it, but not enough to bother actually playing. A good
example is Boss Media's single deck blackjack game with a
player advantage of 0.11%. Some casinos with no positive
expectation game allow robot play and others do not. I do
not know why those with no positive expectation games
prohibit robot play. Some skeptics claim they retain the
right to avoid paying big winners, simply by alleging
robot play. In this situation the casino has released a
taped confession in which the player offers to sell the
robot. However, the player says it was taken out of
context. It is a long story, for more details follow
this
link to Casinomeister's forum on this topic.
Feb. 27, 2004
Where I work the seed for the Caribbean Stud Poker
jackpot is $10,000 and 60% of money bet goes into the meter.
Our jackpot payoff is your table #3. How would this affect
the house advantage? Would the $50,000 aggregate affect it?
I'm more interested in the formulas and how to get to the
numbers. Thank you, WD
The math is quite easy. The probability of a
royal flush is 1 in 649,740. Therefore, the expense of reseeding
the jackpot is $10,000*(1/649,740) = 1.54%. For every
dollar bet you keep 40% for profit and reseeding the
jackpot. 40%-1.54% = 38.46% profit/house edge. It does
not make any difference what you pay on the smaller
jackpot or if there is a maximum win. Ultimately, the 60%
that goes to the meter goes to the players one way or
another, it doesn't matter to you how it gets divided up.
June 27, 2003
Hi, I just have a general question. It is about the
Poker Table Games. Why is it that almost every casino
carries "Let it Ride", "Caribbean Stud Poker", and "3 card
poker"? Some of those other Poker games I was reading about
on your website sound cool, but they aren't around at the
Atlantic City locations. Is it because the above games are
more popular, or just because the casino makes more money on
them? Just wondering since Bally's and Caesars in Atlantic
City are testing the Boston 5 Poker game, and I like that
game the best so far. i hope they keep it there. It is nice
when the dealer doesn't have to qualify (the reason why I
try to avoid Caribbean stud poker) Thanks for your time, Joe
Ultimately, the games that you see in the casinos
are the ones that make the most money for the casinos. For
a game to make money the players have to like it. So
these games you mention are what players find the most
fun. It also helps that they are owned by big gaming
companies that have the resources to get them out there
in the first place. March 7,
2003
I have been noticing (in Illinois and Indiana) a
variation of Caribbean Stud that includes a draw where the
dealer qualifies with a pair of 8's or better. Are you going
to have a strategy section on this anytime soon? - Jason
Collins
You are referring to Caribbean Draw Poker. This
one would be a very difficult game to analyze. At this
time I have no plans to analyze it but once it reaches a
certain saturation point it will be hard to keep putting
it off. March 7, 2003
LOVE the site! Question on Caribbean Stud. You suggest
that a player should stay with any pair. On a low pair,
you're basically hoping the dealer does not qualify. If the
dealer matches any card, other than a "2", you lose. The
risk then, assuming a $10 bet, is $30 to win $10. While you
just lose $10 if you fold. Is this a good move? I know you
have the math to prove it, but on your simulator, I lose
more often than not when I stay on a very low pair. - Dave
Amsbaugh from Cincinnati, Ohio
Thanks for the compliment. Trust me, you should
raise on any pair, even a pair of deuces. It isn't just
that you hope the dealer won't qualify, but you also win
the ante and raise if the dealer gets an ace/king. You
will still have a negative expectation on a low pair, but
the expected loss by folding is higher.
Sept. 24, 2002
First, thanks for the great site. Are you going to
review "Draw Caribbean Stud" soon. I will be down in Dubuque
this weekend and they have it there. I tried it briefly last
time, but had no idea as to perfect strategy so I only
played a couple of hands (won ten bucks). Thanks, Brad -
Bradford Wiley from Winthrop Harbor, U.S.
Thanks for the compliment. I just saw the game
at the California casino here in Las Vegas, but it wasn't
open yet. I got the rule card and I will work on it when I
have the chance. At this time I have no information about
it at all. Mar. 24,
2002
In blackjack and/or in Caribbean stud poker, does it
make a difference if you are the only player seated at the
table versus if the table is full? - Patrick from New York,
USA
No Feb. 11,
2002
My question is a very basic one. Are the odds for
slots and the payoff tables for games like Caribbean Poker,
Three Card Poker and Let It Ride typically lowered on board
the cruise ships from major cruise lines? - Paul Robinson
from Novi, Michigan
I'm not sure. The only cruise I ever took was
from Florida to the Bahamas and it only lasted about
eight hours. This was before I ever started this web site
so I didn't pay close attention to the rules. However, I
do recall that the blackjack rules were stingy, and that
I lost a lot! Other things I have read corroborate that
cruise ship casinos are tight. After all, where else can
you play? However, the games you mention already have
rather high house edges so perhaps they won't mess with
them. I also know that Caribbean Stud Poker has a more
generous paytable in Europe and Africa, so maybe they use
that one. Jan. 15,
2002
Are there any circumstances in Caribbean Stud where it
is a good bet to raise on less than A/K? i.e. You have an
Ace or King and match the dealer upcard, reducing his odds
of a pair and of the high card? - George from Boston,
USA
No. This is a hard and fast rule; you never
raise in Caribbean Stud Poker with less than ace/king.
Nov. 11, 2001
I enjoy both Caribbean Stud and Blackjack. The element
of risk for Stud is 2.56% and Blackjack is 0.38% or a ratio
of 6.7. Assume I play $15 Blackjack and $5 ante Stud i.e.,
$15 at risk when I bet. Since the number of hands dealt per
hour is many more for Blackjack versus Stud, does that mean
that I will lose the same amount of my bankroll if the ratio
of hands dealt per hour is 6.7? - John Galati from Monsey,
USA
No. If you're interested in comparing expected
loses it would be better to use the house edge. My
section on the house
edge shows the blackjack house edge to be 0.43%
(Atlantic City rules) and that of Caribbean Stud Poker to
be 5.22%. The expected loss for 1 hand of Caribbean Stud
Poker at a $5 ante is $5 * 5.22% = 26.10 cents. The
expected loss for 6.7 hands of blackjack at $15 per
initial bet is 6.7 * $15 * 0.43% = 43.22 cents. So given
these two options you will lose less in Caribbean Stud
Poker. The ratio of the house edge of Caribbean Stud
Poker to blackjack is about 12. So the expected loss of a
$1 initial Caribbean Stud Poker bet is about the same as
a $12 initial blackjack bet.
Sept. 13, 2001
I often play Caribbean Stud with my wife and look at
her cards before I play mine. Should I do anything different
based on the cards she is holding? For example, I assume
that I should stay in if I have an Ace/King and she has a
card (less than a King) that matches the dealers up card. -
Mike from New York
Knowledge of other player cards can help if
you use the information correctly. I haven't studied this
in depth but what you are already doing is a good idea.
When you have an ace/king you don't want the dealer to
form a pair. If you or your wife can match the dealer's
up card that lowers the probability of the dealer forming
a pair, and thus increases the probability that the
dealer won't qualify. However, if you're willing to fight
to cut down the house edge marginally I wouldn't waste
your time and money on Caribbean Stud Poker but rather on
a lower house edge game like blackjack or video
poker. July 18, 2001
I understand what the odds of being dealt a royal,
straight flush are for any individual on a Caribbean Stud
Poker or Let it Ride table are and how they are derived. But
my question is this: as a 3rd party watching the game what
are the odds of seeing any one of these hands being dealt to
a player at the table on any given deal. I must believe it
is dependant on the number of hands in play...is it merely
the individual's odds times the number of hands in play. ie.
seeing a royal dealt on any particular hand with 4 players
on a table means 4*odds of getting a royal? I'm slightly
perplexed! - Amyn dodhia from Brantford, Canada
Your method is a good approximation. However, by
that logic the probability of at least one person in 3
flipping a heads would be 3*50%=150%. Assuming
independent events the probability of at least one
success out of n trials, where the probability of each
success is p, is 1-(1-p)n. In the case of the
coin flipping example this would be
1-.53=0.875. In the case of four players of
Caribbean Stud Poker the probability of at least one
royal flush would be 1-(1-4/2598960)4 =
0.00000615629. However, since all the cards are dealt out
of the same deck the events are not independent. The math
gets very complicated to determine the exact right answer
and the approximation should be very close to the right
answer. June 29, 2001
There is a new rule in Moscow casinos in Caribbean
Stud Poker. Player can buy one more card after looking his
initial cards by giving the same amount of ante. Other rules
and pay outs are still the same except no bonus is paid if
player buys a card. Can you please help me to calculate
house edge and the probabilities of this game? Thanks for
your time-Eralp Kanmaz from Moscow, Russia
You're not the first to ask me about this. I'm
afraid I haven't worked out the odds for this variation.
If this twist ever makes it to Vegas I'll make it a
higher priority. June 13,
2001
Could you tell me how the total number of combinations
in Caribbean, 19,933,230,517,200 are arrived at? I followed
your 5 card poker combination to get the 2,598,960. From
there how do I continue? Thank you in advance. - Claudio
Ferrari from Punta del Este ,Uruguay
You correctly calculated the number of player
combinations as combin(52,5)=2,598,960. From there the
dealer can have combin(47,5)=1,533,939 possible hands. Then
any one of five dealer cards can be face up. So
2,598,960*1,533,959*5=19,933,230,517,200.
April 15, 2001
Here in Netherlands we have also Caribbean Stud Poker.
The progressive jackpot side bet payoff table is same as
"Table 3" but the straight flush pays always $5000 instead
of 10% of the Jackpot. How do I calculate the break even
point? - Jan Visser from Rotterdam, Netherlands
According to table 3 a four of a kind pays $500,
a full house pays $100, and a flush pays $50. If m is the
amount of the jackpot meter then the return per dollar
bet is (1,121,800+4*j)/2,598,960. The meter would need to
reach $369,290 for this to be a positive expectation bet.
March 11, 2001
I have a question regarding Caribbean Stud. In my city
there has recently started to appear CS game without maximum
ante and increased maximum pay out. Normal limits in local
currency before min. 2, max 50 and max. pay out 2000. The
new limits are min. 25, no maximum but max. pay out 3000 and
my question is: is this good or bad for me as a player? I
don't know how to calculate the odds, but maybe you can
assist me? I should also add that in this town we play CS
with the possibility of changing one card at the cost of the
ante. - TomasT from Riga, Latvia
In games with a maximum pay out you should never
bet so much that the maximum winning would be affected by
the maximum. For example, if the maximum pay out is $2,000
and the biggest win pays 100:1 then you shouldn't
bet more than $20. Assuming the royal flush there pays
100:1, you shouldn't bet more than $30. As long as
you stay under these limits the odds have not changed. I
have heard about this variation of buying another card
but have yet to see it myself.
Jan. 14, 2001
Wanted to know if you have ever played Vegas Palms.
They use Microgaming for their blackjack. I have never seen
such a streaky game. I have lost 18 out of 20 hands and 1
hour later won 23 out of 30. It seems that every time I play
it turns out to be a streak one way or the other. I am just
happy that I have had more winning streaks than losing
streaks. I also like their Cyberstud Poker. It is close to
Caribbean stud, but I think the payouts are a little
different (ie 2 pair is 2-1, but 3 of-a-kind is 4-1). I have
yet to have a losing session playing this game. Knock on
wood! One hand I did lose, I would like to get you to figure
the odds of it happening. I had a diamond flust king high
and got beat by a spade flush ace high. What are the odds of
2 flushes in one had? - Bert Whitby of Richmond
I have never played at the Vegas Palms. However,
I have a lot of faith in the fairness of Microgaming and
believe that it is just chance you are having streaky
games. Cyberstud poker is the same thing as Caribbean
Stud Poker with a slightly more generous pay table. The
expected return is 5.01%, as opposed to the usual 5.22%.
The probability of two flushes is
(4*(combin(13,5)-10)/combin(52,5)) *
(3*(combin(13,5)-10)/combin(47,5)) = 1 in
203,725. Dec. 24, 2000
Some internet casinos offer multiplayer Caribbean stud
poker. Do you think a team of determined players with good
computers could beat the game? If a team were to occupy all
5 places at a table, they could see into half the deck. A
computer could call the optimal play based on seeing 26
cards (5 per player plus the dealer's up card). Thanks again
for the gambling advice - I'm a long-standing fan. ñ
Peter Ciolfi of Ottawa, Canada
Somebody else asked this is a past column. The
book "Finding the Edge" presents a paper titled "An
Analysis of Caribbean Stud Poker" by Peter Griffin and
John Gwynn Jr.. Griffin and Gwynn state that if seven players
colluded perfectly they would enjoy a 2.3% player
advantage. However, they don't state what the edge would
be in a five-player game. I suspect that the odds would
swing back to the house. Dec. 2,
2000
The odds according to your formula for a royal flush
is 4/2598960 = 1/649740. So if I was playing Caribbean Stud
one on one with the dealer then my hand and the dealers
would equal 649740*2=1299480. Therefore according to the
math after 1299480 hands there should be 2 royal flushes.
Please tell me if I understand the odds correctly. ñ
Bill from Niagara Falls, Canada
You are right that on average a royal flush will
occur once in every 649,740 hands, and that in 1,299,480
hands the expected number of royal flushes is 2. However,
this is only the average. With every hand that goes by
you are actually no closer to getting a royal. Every game
of independent trials has this memoryless property such that a
royal flush is never overdue.
Dec. 10, 2000
Hello Mike. Two questions about Caribbean Stud. It
has a big house advantage. Can this advantage be reduced by
seeing one other person's cards? This happens often,
especially if you are playing with a spouse or friend, even
though the casino says you not supposed to do it. The second
question is about draw Caribbean stud. The dealer has to
qualify with a pair of 8's or higher. You (and the dealer)
can draw 3 or more cards. This game is offered in only a few
locations. Are the odds any better (especially if the dealer
tries to draw to straights and flushes)? Thanks ñ Rod
of Newburgh, USA
To answer your first question, yes, the house
advantage can be reduced by sneaking peaks at other
cards. For example, if you have an ace/king hand it should
make you more inclined to raise if you see another player
matching the dealer's up card. In the book "Finding
the Edge", Peter Griffin and John M. Gwynn Jr. address
the question of player collusion in Caribbean stud poker.
Assuming perfect knowledge of all other cards and having
perfect knowledge of how this information affects the
odds, their paper states the player would have a 2.3% edge
in a seven-player game. In a six-player game the house
would have an edge of 0.4%. This assumes the dealer
shuffles after every hand, as is the case. To answer your
second question I have not analyzed this game yet.
July 16, 2000
Congratulations on a great site. While I usually
play blackjack in AC, basic strategy only, sometime I like
to try my luck on Caribbean poker. I know about the odds in
AC (from reading your articles in Casino Player magazine)
but with different payoffs on some of the online casinos,
are the odds any better or worse online? - S. Shah from
Silver Spring, Maryland
Good question. I checked out four casinos
using Microgaming, Starnet, Cryptologic, and BossMedia
software. Starnet uses the conventional rules.
Cryptologic and BossMedia each pay 200 to 1 on a royal
flush as opposed to 100 to 1. Microgaming has the
following paytable.
|
Hand
|
Payoff
|
|
Royal flush
|
999 to 1
|
|
Straight flush
|
199 to 1
|
|
Four of a kind
|
99 to 1
|
|
Full house
|
14 to 1
|
|
Flush
|
9 to 1
|
|
Straight
|
5 to 1
|
|
Three of a kind
|
3 to 1
|
|
Two pair
|
1 to 1
|
|
Pair
|
1 to 1
|
|
Ace/King
|
1 to 1
|
Note that Microgaming only pays even money on a
two pair but is more generous on everything higher. The
following table displays the house edge for each kind of
software assuming optimal strategy. Note that Starnet
calls the game Cyberstud Poker and the rest call it
Caribbean Poker.
|
Software
|
House edge
|
|
Microgaming
|
5.01%
|
|
Cryptologic
|
5.21%
|
|
BossMedia
|
5.21%
|
|
Starnet
|
5.22%
|
June 25,
2000
Found your site through VEGAS.com bulletin board.
I'm finding it fascinating. Can you tell me the odds of the
dealer qualifying in Caribbean stud. I've heard anything
from 40% to 55%.. I've been playing "blind" and therefore
taking the human element out of the game, and have been
successful, by not going out of hands that I would
ordinarily go out on. Please advise. Thanks alot. - HNSTLWYR
from ?
According to my probabilities
in poker there are 1,296,420 ways out of 2,598,960 to
form a pair or more. I also indicate at the bottom of
that page that there are 167,280 ways to form an
ace/king. So there are 1,463,700 ways to qualify, or a
56.32% chance. By playing blind you are bucking a house
edge of 16.607%. If you used my three rules of thumb in
my section on Caribbean stud
you would lower the house edge to 5.225%.
May 6, 2000
When I calculate the combos of player and dealer
hands for Carib Stud Poker, I get only 3,986,646,103,440 vs
your 19, etc. I'm off by exactly a factor of 5. I used
combin(52,5)*combin(47,5). Where did I go wrong? Thanks and
I think your site is just great. - Bob Pierce of Lake
Charles, Louisiana
Thanks for the compliment. You are off by a
factor of five because the dealer can have any one of 5
cards face up. In other words, order does matter with the
dealer's hand since the first card is dealt face up. The
correct derivation of the total combinations is
combin(52,5)*47*combin(46,4) =
19,933,230,517,200. March 4,
2000
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