Betting Systems FAQ

Last update: November 16, 2005

Betting Systems FAQ

You cite as evidence of the worthlessness of betting systems the fact that none can survive a billion hand computer simulation. If it takes a billion hands to kill my system I'm okay with that because I won't live that long. Why don't you use a more reasonable test like a 1000 hands?

One billion is an arbitrary number. For most systems I could use a much smaller one. However, if the system were based on pick-20 keno, I would need a large sampling to get enough big wins. Furthermore, I'm not just trying to kill a system but to show that the ratio of losses to total amount bet approaches the house edge with a large sampling of hands. Most systems trade lots of small wins for a few big losses. So for short sessions they do usually win. However, all the winnings are given back on the bad days. I could do a million simulations of a thousand hands, average the results, and the result would be the same as a billion hand single session. In other words, if a million people used a system for 1,000 hands and averaged their results, it would be the same as if one person played a billion hands. So what can't be trusted over a billion bets can't be trusted for 1,000, or any number.

I have developed fool proof betting system that will make me as rich as Bill Gates. However it is too good to keep to myself and I would like to share it with you because you seem like such a nice guy. The reason I offer is to see exactly how well it does under a computer simulation. So are you ready to change your life?!

No, go ahead without me. Be sure to write back to say "I told you so" after you make your first million.

I know you won't believe me when I say that I have a betting system that will make me millions. What I would like to know from you is will the casinos throw me out if I win too much?

The casinos see betting systems all day long and are not afraid of them. The more you win, the more they will treat you like royalty. Time is on the casino's side and they know that eventually you will lose it all back. So go ahead and try to take them for all they're worth.

No, really, I have found a betting system that works. I'm 100% positive that by this time next year I will be known as the man who broke Vegas. Just remember my name, because everyone in America will know it soon.

*groan*

What do you think of my betting system?

It is just as worthless as all other betting systems.

What do you think of doubling your bet after every loss at even money games? Wouldn't you win your original bet for every single win, regardless of how many losses preceded the win? It seems to me this method can't lose!

Gamblers have been playing this system, known as the Martingale, for centuries and yet the casinos are still standing. In real life you will eventually either run up against the limit of your bankroll or the maximum bet size. Like most gambling systems, this one trades a lot of small wins for a few huge losses. In the long run you will lose. The Martingale is discussed in more depth in my section on betting systems.

If the Martingale is no good doesn't that mean the anti-Martingale will win?!

Nope. The house edge will kill both of them, and every other betting system.

When do I enter the "long run"?

It is a matter of degree. It is like asking how many grains of sand do you need to a make a heap. The sample mean will approach the true mean as the square root of the sample size increases. I am usually asked this question by someone who is convinced they have a winning betting system and have 1,000 to 10,000 hands to prove it. For purposes of putting a betting system to the test I think you need to be looking in the neighborhood of at least a million hands. The greater the bet size variation the larger the sample size required.

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