Betting the NFL

Last update: Oct. 12, 2009

Introduction

This page assumes the reader already has a good grasp of sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, I recommend reading my general page on sports betting first.

Point Spread Bets

I admit "point spread bet" is not a common term in sports betting, but I'm trying to change that. What I call a point spread bet is a basic bet against the point spread. Many people call this a "straight bet" but this term can also be used, and is printed on tickets for, money liney bets, total bets, and any other bet involving just one game. So I invite the rest of the world to adopt this term.

In the NFL home underdogs have historically done well against the spread. The following table shows the probability of winning, losing, and pushing according by various breakdowns. The table covers every game from the 1983 to 2008 seasons. The expected return is for the standard laying 11 to win 10. The expected return when laying 105 to win 100 is about 2.2% more than when laying 11 to win 10.

Expected Return against Point Spread in the NFL
Event	Win	Lose	Push	Exp. Ret. (-110)
All favorite	47.19%	50.05%	2.76%	-7.15%
All underdogs	50.05%	47.19%	2.76%	-1.69%
All visiting	48.71%	48.57%	2.72%	-4.29%
All home	48.57%	48.71%	2.72%	-4.56%
Home favorite	47.56%	49.75%	2.70%	-6.51%
Visiting underdog	49.75%	47.56%	2.70%	-2.33%
Home underdog	50.70%	46.39%	2.91%	-0.30%
Visiting favorite	46.39%	50.7%	2.91%	-8.53%

For more on betting home underdogs I recommend Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. Also visit my sports betting appendix 2.

Total Bets

Following are the result of every NFL game from the 1983 to 2008 seasons:

Over wins: 48.00%
Under wins: 49.52%
Game ends exactly on total: 2.49%

Overall the house edge on over bets is 5.89% and on unders is 2.98%, assuming the bettor risks $11 to win $10.

Parlays

I address parlays in main page on sports betting.

Teasers

For the random picker, teasers are a lousy bet. To argue this point, consider the NFL teaser pay table at all MGM-Mirage properties.

MGM-Mirage NFL Teaser Pay Table
Picks	6 Points	6.5 Points	7 Points
2	10 to 12	10 to 13	5 to 7
3	8 to 5	7 to 5	6 to 5
4	5 to 2	2 to 1	9 to 5
5	4 to 1	7 to 2	3 to 1
6	6 to 1	5 to 1	4 to 1

The next table shows the probability of covering a single pick in a teaser, based on every game from the 1983 to 2008 NFL seasons.

Teaser Probabilities
Points	Sides	Totals
6	68.44%	67.28%
6.5	69.88%	68.71%
7	71.40%	70.15%

Applying the pay table and probabilities above, the following table shows the expected return according to number of picks and number of points for teasers with all sides.

Expected Return for MGM-Mirage Teasers — Sides
Picks	6 Points	6.5 Points	7 Points
2	-14.13%	-13.60%	-12.61%
3	-16.66%	-18.10%	-19.93%
4	-23.23%	-28.46%	-27.24%
5	-24.94%	-25.01%	-25.79%
6	-28.08%	-30.13%	-33.77%

The next table shows the same thing, but for teasing totals.

Expected Return for MGM-Mirage Teasers — Totals
Picks	6 Points	6.5 Points	7 Points
2	-17.01%	-16.47%	-15.64%
3	-20.81%	-22.15%	-24.05%
4	-28.28%	-33.13%	-32.19%
5	-31.07%	-31.08%	-32.05%
6	-35.07%	-36.86%	-40.41%

The bottom line is that for random pickers, teasers are horrible bets. However, if you must bet teasers randomly, picking sides is better than totals. The lowest house edge is on the 2-team 7-point teaser at 12.61%. You should also shop around, because some casinos offer a slightly better pay table than that of MGM-Mirage.

Knowledgeable sports betters can gain a small advantage on teasers by betting at the casinos with a liberal pay table, and crossing the 3 and the 7 point margin of victories. These are known as "Wong teasers." For more on this advantage play, I recommend Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong.

Buying Half a Point

The most opportune time to buy a half point is when one team is favored by 2.5, 3, 6.5, or 7. This is because many games end in a 3 or 7 point difference and the extra half point can either turn a loss into a draw or a draw into a win. However many sportbooks do not allow purchasing a 1/2 point on these spreads for exactly this reason. Over 1975 games during the 1993 to 2000 seasons the overall house edge by purchasing the extra half point is 4.13%.