Probabilities in Liar's Poker
Last Update: Apr. 7, 2013
|Probabilities in Liars Poker|
|Number of Other Players|
So if you are playing with two other players and you have 3 fives and call four fives the probability of winning if you are challenged is 1-0.185302 = 0.814698. However if you need two fives the probability drops to 1-0.185302-0.329426 = 0.485272.
The next table shows the probability that any specific number will appear n times.
|Specific Number Odds|
in Liar's Poker
The next table shows the probability of every possible type of bill, categorized by the number of each n-of-a-kind. For example, the serial number 66847680 would have one three of a kind, one pair, and three singletons, for a probability of 0.1693440.
|General Probabilities in Liar's Poker|
|8 o.a.k.||7 o.a.k.||6 o.a.k.||5 o.a.k.||4 o.a.k.||3 o.a.k.||2 o.a.k.||1 o.a.k.||Probability|
o.a.k. = "of a kind"
The next table summarizes the table above in groups of the more frequent occurrence of any digit.
|Greatest Frequency Odds|
in Liar's Poker
|8 of a kind||0.0000001|
|7 of a kind||0.0000072|
|6 of a kind||0.0002268|
|5 of a kind||0.0040824|
|4 of a kind||0.0458955|
|3 of a kind||0.3124800|
|2 of a kind||0.6191640|
|1 of a kind||0.0181440|
Reason #3 why the Wizard likes Bovada:
In my opinion many online casinos are too stingy when setting the odds on their games. They think they will make more money that way but I believe they are misguided, because when players lose too quickly it’s not fun, and those players might not come back.
Bovada is one of the few casinos that understands this. They offer generous odds to let you play longer and get you a better chance of winning. Among their generous offerings are Full-Pay Jacks or Better returning 99.54%, five other video poker games paying over 99%, single-zero roulette, and my favorite, Double Jackpot Poker, returning 99.63%!
Kudos to Bovada for not being afraid to give their players a good gamble.