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Let it Ride |
I use your great site quite often, thanks! I found a new pay table at the Borgata in Atlantic City, for the Three Card Bonus bet in Let It Ride. They implemented these very recently, to the point the dealers were struggling to remember the new odds. Here is the new pay table:
Mini Royal: 50 to 1
Straight flush: 40 to 1
Three of a kind: 30 to 1
Straight: 6 to 1
Flush: 4 to 1
Pair: 1 to 1
I am curious how it impacts the overall house edge.
— Kyle from Leesburg, VA
I was killing time in the Harrah's in New Orleans the other day, and sat at a Let It Ride table for the first time in years. I noticed that the disclaimer stated that the aggregate payout one round was
$25,000. This was generally at $75,000 when the game was first introduced. Since this was a $10 minimum table, this meant that in the unlikely event of a Royal Flush, even a minimum bet would not be fully paid out. How can they set it so that a minimum bet can't be paid off? To me, this is like to a slot machine having a big sign saying "$1,000,000 jackpot" with fine print saying "Payout limited to $100,000". I understand that the aggregate payout amount is pretty
much what the traffic will bear, but are there any guidelines that
require a certain minimum level for the aggregate limit?
— Rick from New Orleans
For the benefit of other readers, in Let it Ride the player starts with three bets, and may pull back two of them if his cards don’t look good. If the minimum were $10, he would start with $30 in bets. If the player has a possible royal flush, proper strategy says to always stay in the game. A royal flush pays 1000 to 1. With a royal flush, the player would win 1000 to 1 on three bets of $10, or a total of $30,000 on bets of $10. However, the maximum aggregate payout is $25,000, so the 1000 to 1 is impossible to achieve, unless the player deviates from proper strategy, and doesn't raise with hopes of royal.
I completely agree with your point. In my opinion it is false advertising to offer a win that is impossible to get under proper strategy. So, to Harrah’s I say “shame on you.” They can afford to pay a $25,000 jackpot.
Here in Nevada, an aggregate payout rule must be in plain view, and it cannot apply to wins less than 50 to 1 (Nevada Revised Statute 5.190). So, unless there is another statute I don’t know about, this would be legal here too. However, I am not aware of the same kind of impossible jackpot here. The maximum payout is also usually $25,000, but some of the classier casinos have higher maximum payouts. For example, the Wynn is at $75,000. The minimum bet here is usually $5, so as long as you stay at bets of $8 or less, the win for a royal will stay under $25,000. With a $1 side bet, the win would be exactly $25,000, so they would be allowed to deduct any wins of other players against you. My advice is to never bet so much that the aggregate payout rule might apply, on principle alone. July 21, 2008
I had an interesting occurrence at a major high-end strip property and I was wondering how I should have handled the situation. A friend and I were the only players at a Let It Ride table. After playing for a while, the blue deck started getting stuck in the shuffler. After a while, the dealer asked the floor manager to replace the deck. Before replacing the deck, the dealer counted the cards, only 51 cards! Several recounts, looking all around, calling in another supervisor etc failed to produce the missing card.
My friend was down about $300 and I was up around $150 when all this happened. Since we are both 'full comp' at the property, I did not raise a stink about this. The dealer seemed very worried about her job and we did not joke around at all. The supervisors and floor person did not say anything to us or offer any compensation. More or less, after a while, they replaced the deck and continued the game.
Personally, I figured that the odds say the missing card was a low card and it probably helped our odds of winning. My friend (who was down) thinks differently, that he should have been compensated. In the end, we did not raise the issue with the floor person. Was that correct? Should we have been aggressive given the situation? And, I am curious, assuming it was a random card, likely a low card, wouldn't that actually have helped out odds during the time it was gone missing? Regards!
— Kevin from Dallas
If you take a single card out of the deck randomly, the odds of Let it Ride do not change. This would be true of any casino game I can think of, where the cards are shuffled between hands. Without knowing the missing card, the effects of removal of bad cards and good cards exactly cancel one another out. So, complaining is not mathematically justified. Even if they found that it was a high card that got lost, it was still accidental. It could have just as easily been a low card that got lost. If it happened to me, I would have let it slide. I think an apology from somebody would be called for, but they probably didn’t want to, lest it give you more bargaining power if you did make a big scene over it. June 16, 2008 Hi I've been playing the Java Let
It Ride Game on your website and it's really fun.
Thanks for putting it out on your website. I was wondering,
is it fairly accurate as to how a game in a live casino
would be played? And does it use a virtual new shuffled deck
for each new hand that is dealt?
It plays just like the real thing. The casinos
use a shuffling machine, which I understand to be very
good. My program shuffles the deck after every hand too.
September 23, 2004
What is the probability of getting two four of a kinds
in a two hour period playing Let it Ride?
The probability of a four of a kind in any given
hand is 13*48/combin(52,5) = 0.0002401. Let's assume in
two hours you can play 120 hands. The probability of
exactly two four of a kinds would be combin(120,2) ×
0.00024012 × (1-0.0002401)118 = 0.000400095 =
1 in 2499.41. May 22, 2004
I trust your Let it Ride advice is correct but I still
like raising on a low pair with three cards. Often I have
seen these turn into paying hands. So how much is it costing
me to raise on low pairs?
With a low pair your expected value on the
initial bet is -7.40%. So if your original bet was $10
then letting it ride with a low pair will cost you an
extra 74 cents. May 13,
2004
I was wondering what happens to the house advantage if
you could view all 7 player's hands. Would this result in a
negative house advantage?
In "Mastering the Game of Let it Ride" Stanley
Ko addresses this topic. Ko says, most of the
value in seeing other player's cards is when you have a
borderline hand of 4 to an outside straight with no high
cards or JQKA. Viewing a single card should not encourage you to "let it ride" but seeing a card that
won't help you should cause you to "let it ride." Ko
doesn't indicate that this can result in a negative house
edge, and I doubt this chips away at the house edge much
at all. Oct. 15, 2003
I know that mathematically anything is possible, but
the other night at the casino I think that I witnessed
something that would be a billion to 1 shot, not that those
don¹t ever happen. Here is what happened: In the course of
40 hands (40 single 3 card deals about 8 rounds with 5
players) at a let it ride table 3 four of a kinds were
dealt. With a four of a kind being about 4100 to 1 what
would be the odds of three of them being dealt within 40
deals? Please answer as this is killing me. Long time fan -
Michael
For the sake of simplicity let's assume each
hand is dealt from a fresh deck. The probability of a
four of a kind is 13*48/combin(52,5) = 624/2598960. The
probability of exactly 3 out of 40 four of a kinds is
combin(40,3)*p3*(1-p)37 = 1 in
7378135, where p = 624/2598960. So that is more like a 1
in 7 million shot. Aug. 25,
2003
Hi, I just have a general question. It is about the
Poker Table Games. Why is it that almost every casino
carries "Let it Ride", "Caribbean Stud Poker", and "3 card
poker"? Some of those other Poker games I was reading about
on your website sound cool, but they aren't around at the
Atlantic City locations. Is it because the above games are
more popular, or just because the casino makes more money on
them? Just wondering since Bally's and Caesars in Atlantic
City are testing the Boston 5 Poker game, and I like that
game the best so far. i hope they keep it there. It is nice
when the dealer doesn't have to qualify (the reason why I
try to avoid Caribbean stud poker) Thanks for your time, Joe
Ultimately the games that you see in the casinos
are the ones that make the most money for the casino. For
a game to make money the players have to like it. So
these games you mention are what players find the most
fun. It also helps that they are owned by big gaming
companies that have the resources to get them out there
in the first place. March 7,
2003
This past weekend I played Let it Ride at El Dorado in
Reno. Side Bet payout was 20000 (Royal), 2000 (Straight
Flsh), 200 Four, 75 Full, 50 Flush, 25 Straight, 5 Three, 4
Two pair, 1 High pair. Did not see this covered on House
edge what would edge be? - Bayne Steele from Petaluma,
California
This pay table has a house edge of 13.07%, the
lowest I have heard of for Let it Ride. Still a sucker
bet though. Feb. 4,
2003
What is the increased house advantage for letting the
following hands "ride" on Let it Ride?
1) three unsuited cards (A-K-Q and K-Q-J for
example)
2) low connected straight flush cards (3-4-5)
3) something like J-10-7 of diamonds, spread of 5.
Thanks Mike, great site as usual (I'll say it every
time) - Jason Feng from Vancouver, Canada
Thanks for the compliment. First, you're
supposed to "let it ride" with suited 3-4-5 (three
consecutive suited cards) and suited 7-10-J (three to a
straight flush with 2 high cards and 2 gaps). My own
strategy is as follows. First, measure the effect on your expected
return for each of the other hands, measured in units.
For example if you bet three units of $1, raising on
unsuited A-K-Q would cost you 18.62 cents.
Unsuited A-K-Q: -0.186224
Unsuited K-Q-J: -0.104592 March
17, 2002
My question is a very basic one. Are the odds for
slots and the payoff tables for games like Caribbean Poker,
Three Card Poker and Let It Ride typically lowered on board
the cruise ships from major cruise lines? - Paul Robinson
from Novi, Michigan
I'm not sure. The only cruise I ever took was
from Florida to the Bahamas and it only lasted about
eight hours. This was before I ever started this web site
so I didn't pay close attention to the rules. However I
do recall that the blackjack rules were stingy, and that
I lost a lot! Other things I have read corroborate that
cruise ships casinos are tight. After all, where else can
you play? However the games you mention already have
rather high house edges so perhaps there is no need to alter the rules. I also know that Caribbean Stud Poker has a more
generous paytable in Europe and Africa, so maybe they use
that one. Jan. 15,
2002
I was playing 'let it ride' on a video machine last
week. Someone told me I would have better odds if I played
at a table with 6 players because more cards are out (20
instead of 5). Is he correct? - Phillip Atwater from Upper
Marlboro, Maryland
No. Unless you can actually see the other
player's cards and use that information correctly in your
strategy then the number of other players makes no
difference. Dec. 4,
2001
I understand what the odds of being dealt a royal,
straight flush are for any individual on a Caribbean Stud
Poker or Let it Ride table are and how they are derived. But
my question is this: as a 3rd party watching the game what
are the odds of seeing any one of these hands being dealt to
a player at the table on any given deal. I must believe it
is dependant on the number of hands in play...is it merely
the individual's odds times the number of hands in play. ie.
seeing a royal dealt on any particular hand with 4 players
on a table means 4*odds of getting a royal? I'm slightly
perplexed! - Amyn dodhia from Brantford, Canada
Your method is a good approximation. However by
that logic, when flipping a coin, the probability of at least one person in 3
flipping a heads would be 3*50%=150%. Assuming
independent events the probability of at least one
success out of n trials, where the probability of each
success is p, is 1-(1-p)n. In the case of the
coin flipping example this would be
1-.53=0.875. In the case of four players of
Caribbean Stud Poker the probability of at least one
royal flush would be 1-(1-4/2598960)4 =
0.00000615629. However since all the cards are dealt out
of the same deck the events are not independent. The math
gets very complicated to determine the exact right answer; the approximation should be very close to the right
answer. June 29, 2001
I understand the calculations made to determine the
house advantage for the various games. My question is most
applicable to the games with a large payout (for example, a
royal flush in Let It Ride). Would it not be more reasonable
to calculate the "house advantage" with the royal flush
excluded? While hitting the royal is possible, it is
extremely unlikely for the average player. Would this
modified house advantage be more applicable to the average
player? Thanks for the great site. - Bill from Corpus
Christi, USA
You make a good point. In terms of what to
expect in the short run, you should ignore the
highest hands. I know video poker players sometimes
disregard royal flushes when determining their short-term
expectations. However as a mathematical purist I
can't help but consider every possible outcome,
regardless of how unlikely.
March 11, 2001
I will be visiting Reno in the near future and have
frequented your site in regards to Let It Ride and craps. I
seem to have more luck at LIR than Craps. What effect does
the number of players at LIR have on the probability of
winning, if any? - Kevin from Lorain, USA
Assuming you are not peeking at any other
player's cards it doesn't make any
difference. Have a good time in Reno.
Jan. 20, 2001
I was wondering why you recommend folding a 2-3-4
straight flush hand in let it ride? I understand folding
A-2-3 as there is only "one side" to match. However, 2-3-4
seems the same as any other outside straight? - Kevin
Albright from Dallas, USA
There are 2 directions to complete a 2-3-4
straight (A-2-3-4-5, 2-3-4-5-6), yet there are 3 directions to
complete a 3-4-5 straight (A-2-3-4-5, 2-3-4-5-6,
3-4-5-6-7). Jan. 14,
2001
Has anyone done work on the optimal betting strategies
in "Let It Ride" w/ additional information? I know the
casinos say players may not look at other players hands, but
in practice, it seems that most players know what at least
two other players are holding. I may want to go for an
inside straight if I know that at least six of the cards on
the table are NOT what I need to pull. -- Brian Widdowson of
Stafford, Virginia
Yes! In "Mastering the Game of Let It Ride" by
Stanley Ko, a section is devoted to this topic. Ko
explains how the odds change if you have a 4-card
straight or flush and can see extra cards. He does not
indicate such adjustments at the 3-card stage of the
game. You can find this booklet at that Gambler's
Book Club. Nov. 11,
2000
I would like to know what the players edge would be in
Let It Ride if he can see can see both the dealers cards and
then if he can only see one of them? I was told that you
could figure it out. ñ Jeff T. Farquhar from
Hammmonton, USA
If you could see both the dealer's cards your
edge would be 42.06%. The answer for being able to see one card is
much more difficult to determine. It would also depend on
which card it was. I'm afraid this goes beyond what I can
do for free. Sept. 10,
2000
Recently, I visited one of the Indian casinos in
our state (had an out-of-towner visiting.) They have Let It
Ride, however, the payoff is only 500 to 1 on the Royal
Flush. I would like to know what that does to the vig on the
game? - Gary from Albuquerque, New Mexico.
This increases the house edge from 3.50568%
to 3.73654%. April 2,
2000
I had the good fortune of hitting 4 of a kind at a
local casino, and was subsequently invited to play in a Let
It Ride tournament, where approximately 300 players will
compete for quite substantial prize money. My question is,
what do you think would be the optimal strategy? Each player
is to be given $5000 in play chips, and the minimum bet will
be $25 a hand. There will be "heats", with the first round
having all but 100 eliminated, second all but 25, third will
have 6 left, and then the final round. -Donald LaDue of
Rochester, New York
Good question. The key to winning each heat
will depend much more on how you bet then how you play
your cards. I would suggest not deviating from the
strategy presented in my let it
ride section. A good betting strategy to increase
your odds for a big win is to bet the minimum most of the
time to keep the house edge from grinding you down.
However you should have moments of very aggressive
betting. I would bet as much as you can enough times so
that if you win you'll advance to the next heat. Let me
know what happens. March 4,
2000
From your let it
ride section you do not list a low pair as a good
hand to "let it ride" on. Just how bad of a bet would it be
to go contrary to your advice? -Kevin
"Letting it ride" on a low pair (9's or less)
is definitely a bad bet. The house edge on a low pair
with three cards is 6.37%. With four cards the house edge
jumps to 45.83%. So don't be tempted to "let it ride" on
low pairs. Feb. 5,
2000
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