Ask the Wizard! (No. 245)

Let's look at the data first. The following table shows the number of tables by game and year for Clark County from the Nevada Gaming Control Quarterly Statistical Reports. All years are based on the fourth quarter except 2009, which is based on the third quarter, because at the time of this writing, the fourth quarter was not yet available. Sports, racing, bingo, and keno are not included.

Total Table Games 1990-1999
Game	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
21	2132	2094	1954	2132	2140	2134	2345	2383	2404	2664
Roulette	197	202	203	232	252	258	287	303	311	354
Craps	290	284	272	286	303	308	325	334	344	372
Other games	3	5	8	28	95	15	25	51	56	71
Baccarat	54	57	49	51	64	70	72	81	83	103
Pai gow poker	73	98	99	107	101	95	109	120	139	170
Three card poker	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mini baccarat	26	33	39	40	43	51	73	77	85	94
Let it ride	0	0	0	0	23	148	144	110	108	118
Pai gow	26	22	19	19	2	23	22	36	42	33
Wheel of fortune	47	44	42	39	48	46	37	34	34	36
Caribbean Stud	0	2	13	95	127	120	109	100	95	94
Chuck a luck	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	2	2
Sic bo	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3
Crapless Craps	3	3	1	1	6	4	2	1	0	0
Double Middles	3	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nines up	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Over & under 7	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Over & under 13	3	11	12	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Red Dog	13	14	17	10	0	0	0	0	0	0
P&M Pokertable	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Super pan nine	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Total	2883	2878	2734	3048	3207	3275	3554	3636	3706	4114

Total Table Games 2000-2009
Game	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
21	2659	2605	2546	2561	2508	2662	2589	2528	2537	2448
Roulette	359	362	352	360	360	392	394	393	405	407
Craps	372	370	352	352	338	364	351	340	334	336
Other games	101	143	52	68	81	121	196	283	243	226
Baccarat	106	98	93	109	115	133	175	176	233	218
Pai gow poker	179	198	207	217	211	192	192	175	194	216
Three card poker	0	3	105	135	160	182	185	191	208	197
Mini baccarat	110	118	126	115	124	147	148	130	143	140
Let it ride	129	132	121	112	105	109	97	94	98	97
Race book	81	83	80	78	83	86	84	81	82	67
Pai gow	43	41	40	43	49	73	76	82	80	58
Wheel of fortune	41	42	41	40	40	37	37	33	37	40
Caribbean Stud	88	80	75	69	56	45	30	23	22	17
Chuck a luck	2	1	2	2	3	1	1	1	1	1
Sic bo	3	6	6	4	2	1	2	1	1	1
Crapless Craps	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Double Middles	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Nines up	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Over & under 7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Over & under 13	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Red Dog	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P&M Pokertable	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Super pan nine	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	4192	4200	4120	4187	4154	4459	4473	4450	4536	4402

The next table shows the percentage of the total table game market for each game for 1990 and 2009. Note how 21 is the biggest loser, going from 74.0% to 55.6%.

Market Share Comparison
Game	1990	2009
21	74.0%	55.6%
Roulette	6.8%	9.2%
Craps	10.1%	7.6%
Other games	0.1%	5.1%
Baccarat	1.9%	5.0%
Pai gow poker	2.5%	4.9%
Three card poker	0.0%	4.5%
Mini baccarat	0.9%	3.2%
Let it ride	0.0%	2.2%
Pai gow	0.9%	1.3%
Wheel of fortune	1.6%	0.9%
Caribbean Stud	0.0%	0.4%
Chuck a luck	0.0%	0.0%
Sic bo	0.1%	0.0%
Crapless Craps	0.1%	0.0%
Double Middles	0.1%	0.0%
Nines up	0.1%	0.0%
Over & under 7	0.0%	0.0%
Over & under 13	0.1%	0.0%
Red Dog	0.5%	0.0%
P&M Pokertable	0.1%	0.0%
Super pan nine	0.1%	0.0%

This begs the question of why blackjack is losing market share. Here are what I think are the main reasons:

1. Popularity of poker-based games is causing some players to switch.
2. Casinos don't comp blackjack play as well as other games.
3. The rules are getting worse. I'm not suggesting most players know this, but over time, players can feel rule changes, like the dealer's hitting a soft 17, in their wallet.
4. All casino games have a natural lifespan, and blackjack is getting more grey.

This question was raised and discussed in the forum of my companion site Wizard of Vegas.

From the 2000 to 2009 NFL seasons, not including the 2009 post-season, there were 567 failed 2-point conversion attempts, and 318 successful attempts. Going by that, the probability of success is 318/(567+318) = 35.9%.

Las Vegas casinos are surprisingly risk averse; they don't like taking big bets. For customers off the street, the biggest bet a nice casino will take is usually $150,000 in baccarat, on player or banker. In other traditional table games, the limit is usually $10,000. Limits can be raised upon request by known customers.

This question was raised and discussed in the forum of my companion site Wizard of Vegas.

Short answer, no.

Long answer, If the numbers of 7s, 8s, and 9s are all twice what they should be, then the player should double 12 against a 6. However, how often does that happen? Even if it did, the best of card counting strategies would not identify the situation. For confirmation, I asked Don Schlesinger, author of Blackjack Attack, who said, "We kicked that around on the sites, and, with normal count systems, the answer was never."

The standard Atlantic City rules are 6 or 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, double after split allowed, no surrender, no re-splitting aces, and the player may only split other pairs twice. However, Resorts also has some tables with those rules except the dealer hits a soft 17. Using my blackjack house edge calculator, and assuming 8 decks, the house edge is 0.46% if the dealer stands on a soft 17 and 0.67% if he hits. The general formula for the increase in the house edge if a nonrefundable fee must be paid per hand is f/(b+f), where f is the fee and b is the initial bet. In doing so, I define the house edge as the ratio of the expected loss to the sum of the bet and the fee. So, at a $2 bet, the increase in the house edge is 0.25/2.25 = 11.11%. At a $5 bet, the increase is 0.25/5.25 = 4.76%. I would assume they are going to have the dealer hit a soft 17 at these tables, making the overall house edge 11.78% at a $2 bet and 5.43% at a $5 bet. This is much worse than the 6 to 5 games or even money games they have in Vegas. Still, this isn't as bad as the rule where a player loses on ties, which I saw in Finland.

This question was raised and discussed in the forum of my companion site Wizard of Vegas.