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October 17, 2004
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What changes should one make to blackjack basic
strategy when playing just a single hand when the objective
is to maximize the chance of winning that hand (for example
when using a match play coupon)?
It depends if the player is allowed to double
and split the match play portion of the bet. Usually the
player is not allowed to, which works against the player.
The following chart shows how to adjust your double and
splitting strategy, assuming the player may not double
the match play and if the player splits the match play
rides on the first hand played, based on infinite decks
and the dealer standing on soft 17. The hit/stand
strategy is the same.

What do you think of the claim below, that God is a
Democrat as evidenced by the fact that all the counties that
voted for Gore in 2000 were spared by the three hurricanes
that hit Florida recently?
First, I am publishing this because author gives
permission to do so at the bottom. This is a good example
that correlation does not necessarily mean causation. It
is easy to look back in time and find lots of
coincidences. To make a case for anything a hypothesis
should be stated before any evidence is gathered.
Follow-up (November 13, 2004): Another reader
pointed out that this map started out as a joke but
turned into an urban
legend. As this link points out the hurricane paths
in the graphic were simply not accurate and the actual
hurricanes hit many Gore counties. It just goes to show
you shouldn't believe everything you read, especially on
the Internet.
Love your site, thanks for all the work you put into
it. I try to click some ads every now and then though I
don't gamble online.
(I'm going to let my ad-man, Michael Bluejay
answer this one.)
Thanks for trying to help us out but save your
clicking, because it just wastes your time and doesn't
help us any. Our advertisers pay us a
flat rate per month so we get the same amount of
money whether you click or not. But even if we did get
paid on a per-click basis, we still wouldn't ask you to
click on ads gratuitously, because that wouldn't be fair
to the advertisers. Advertisers who pay for clicks are
expecting to get business from those clicks, and it hurts
them when people click with no intention of buying.
Wherever you are on the Internet, if you know the
advertiser is paying by the click, then it's kind of mean
to click their ad if you know you're not really
interested in checking out what they have to offer.
We're unusual in that we charge advertisers by the
month. Most ads for online casinos are affiliate
programs, where the webmaster gets a percentage (35% or
so) of what the players lose, after they click over and
open an account. It's actually of questionable legality
for U.S. webmasters to run ads as an affiliate, which is
one reason we don't. Another reason is that our players
tend to be a little more educated and less likely to
lose, which would cut into our affiliate commissions. So
the big reason we don't do affiliate programs is that we
don't have to -- as one of the premier gambling sites on
the net, we're able to sell ads on our own terms because
so many online casinos fall all over themselves trying to
pay us for some of our limited adspace. It's good to be
on top. :)
I'm glad to hear that you've gotten into playing Texas
Hold'em. I love the game and I'm winning online, but just
barely. I've read more than a dozen books on Poker but I
wanted to get your opinion on a couple of points
1. How do you feel about "Position"? Example: Do you
think there are really hands that are profitable from late
position but should never be played from early
position?
2. What about "Pot Odds"? I understand the concept,
but I've layed down a lot of hands that would have been
winners, simply because I didn't have the correct odds to
stay in and draw.... The charts on your website suggest that
the strongest starting hands have a certain "Expected Value"
if never folded. Do you recommend seeing these hands through
to the river unless it's obvious that you're beaten
(reguardless of pot odds)?
Thank you for your time. DM Washington State
First, I'm still just a beginner so am not the
best one to ask. Position is very important in hold'em.
The later your position the more information you have
about your opponents' cards by the time it is your turn.
For example if you pair the middle card on the flop, and
it is check to you and you are last, then you can feel
comfortable raising knowing that probably nobody paired
the high card. However when you are in early position you
never know how many raises you'll see by the time the
betting goes around the table. If you have a good, but
not a great hand, and you raise it may get reraised by
players with stronger hands. If you check with such a
hand it may check all the way around and you missed a
chance to build up the pot and scare other players out.
So don't just bet the value of your own cards, instead
you have to weigh them against everyone else's cards. The
later you are to play the more you will know about the
other player's cards by the time it is your turn.
Pot odds is an important concept. As in any form of
gambling the value of a bet depends on your probability
of winning, the amount of the bet, and the amount of the
win. The following table shows some common situations.
The probability column shows the probability of making a
straight or flush. The pot odds column shows the minimum
number of bet units already in the pot for betting to be
a good bet, assuming you will definitely win if you make
your hand (unless you have the nut flush this is a big
if).
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Frequent Draws
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Hand
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After
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Probability of Making Hand
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Pot Odds
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4 to a flush
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Flop
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34.97%
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1.86
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4 to an outside straight
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Flop
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31.45%
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2.18
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4 to an inside straight
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Flop
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16.47%
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5.07
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4 to a flush
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Turn
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19.57%
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4.11
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4 to an outside straight
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Turn
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17.39%
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4.75
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4 to an inside straight
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Turn
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8.70%
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10.50
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There are lots of other factors to consider. One could
write an entire book about it, and in fact many people
have. Personally I recommend Get
the Edge at Low-Limit Texas Hold'em by Bill Burton as
a introductory book on hold'em. About my charts, no,
definitely do not trust in a good starting hand the
entire way through. There will be lots of times when you
should fold a pair of aces. My tables are meant to only
help the player bet before the flop. After the flop the
expected value of your hand will likely change
substantially.
When I play in free-play mode at an online casino does
it have any effect when I play for real money? I think
definitely not, but I wanted to check with you.
It shouldn't. And I
will vouch that any casino advertising on this site
plays a fair game. Any casino I find cheating, whether in
fun or real money, I will have no compunction to add to
my blacklist.
Hi Wizard, I wanted to know if you can answer this. In
a popular gambling game in 17th century France, a player
would roll a pair of dice 24 times. He would win his bet if
at least one of these rolls was a double six. There was a
debate at the time over whether the probability of winning
was above or below an even 50%. Can you help me?
Sure, this is easy. The probability of rolling
at least one 12 in 24 rolls is 1-(35/36)24 =
49.14%. So the odds favor betting against a 12. This is a
clever bet because the expected number of twelves in 24
rolls is 2/3. However that does not mean the probability
of a 12 is 2/3, because sometimes there will be more than
one 12, and the player betting on 12 doesn't win any more
for extra twelves after the first one. If the probability
of winning any given trial is p, the number of trials is
n, and the probability of at least one win is w then
solving for n in terms of p and w gives us...
w=1-(1-p)n
1-w = (1-p)n
log(1-w) = log((1-p)n)
log(1-w) = n*log(1-p)
n= log(1-w)/log(1-p)
So in your example n = log(1-.5) / log(1-(1/36)) =
log(0.5) / log(35/36) = 24.6051. So if the probability of
success is 50% in 24.6 rolls it must be slightly less in
24 rolls.
Are there any real professional gamblers out
there?
Yes, lots. I know several personally. I'm trying
to become one myself but in my opinion you need a
bankroll of at least three times the annual income you
are accustomed to, and I'm not there yet. For true
stories of some the best professional gamblers I
recommend Gambling
Wizards by Richard W. Munchkin.
What is the probability of rolling 1,2,3,4,5,6 with
six dice, six times in a row?
The probability of rolling 123456 with six dice
in a single roll can be expressed as prob(second die does
not match first die) * prob(third die does not match
first or second die) * ... =
1*(5/6)*(4/6)*(3/6)*(2/6)*(1/6) = 0.015432. So the
probability of doing this six times in a row is
0.0154326 = 1 in 74,037,208,411.
See important note about Bodog payouts & deposits.
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