Ask the Wizard #22
Edition Date: Aug 13, 2000
I think your website is one of the best gambling sites on the net, and I have a question that I am hoping you would be able to answer. There is an Indian casino a few hours from my house that has some odd rules and regulations. I was wondering if you would be able to determine the house edge from these rules:
-There is a 50 cent charge on each hand if your wager is between $5 and $25
-There is a $1 charge on each hand if your wager is $26 to $500
-You can split up to 4 times, not including aces
-You can double on any first two cards
-You can double after a split
-Dealer stands on all 17s
-Early surrender is available
-One card on each hand if you split aces
$100 bonus on getting 7 cards without busting
$100 bonus on getting 3 7’s in a row
$500 bonus for getting 3 Blackjacks in a row
$10,000 bonus for getting 4 Blackjacks in a row
Any help you can give is appreciated.
— Bryan
I’m going to assume that eight decks are used and that the bonuses are not applicable if the dealer has a blackjack. Using the Blackjack Count Analzyer I get a player advantage of 1.4% with a $5 bet. Unfortunatley this advantage is not available at greater bet sizes as the comparitive benefit of the bonuses decreases and the additional fee for bets of $25 or over. With a $24 bet the house edge is 1.4%, and with a $25 bet it is 3.3%. This certainly is a very interesting game. If you play it let me know how you do.
Thanks for answering my questions. I want to deposit as much as I can at good casinos to take advantage of the "new player" bonus but how much do you think is too much? I don’t like wasting an opportunity to get a large 20% bonus by getting a small 20% bonus, but how much is too much? What’s been your experience?
— Scott T.
Don’t worry about depositing too much money. I almost always deposit the maximum when playing for a bonus. What is much more likely to arouse suspicion is not playing enough.
I like to play the game liars poker with dollar bills. what is the probability of getting any 1,2,3,4, or 5 of the same number on a bill. thank you. If I am playing with 3 people, what is the probability of any 1 number showing up.
— John from New York
First let me answer the unasked question on the probability that a specific number will show up n times on a random bill. There are 8 digits on a bill so the probability of n of a specific number is combin(8,n)*9
8-n/10
8. The following are these probabilities for n=0 to 8.
- 0
- 0.43046721
- 1
- 0.38263752
- 2
- 0.14880348
- 3
- 0.03306744
- 4
- 0.00459270
- 5
- 0.00040824
- 6
- 0.00002268
- 7
- 0.00000072
- 8
- 0.00000001
Next is the probability that any number will n times on a dollar bill, where no other number appears more than n times.
- 0
- 0.0181440
- 1
- 0.6191640
- 2
- 0.3124800
- 3
- 0.0458955
- 4
- 0.0045927
- 5
- 0.0040824
- 6
- 0.0002268
- 7
- 0.0000072
- 8
- 0.0000001
I interpret your last question to be what is the probability that a specific number will show up at least once on at least one of 3 bills. The answer is 1-(9/10)24=.920234.
What are some of the best online casinos to play blackjack on, with the following criteria in mind - Best player odds, fewest decks, fairness?
— Robert from Hamilton, Canada
Assuming you put the greatest priority on player odds I would have to go with a Unified Gaming casino. You’ll enjoy a player edge of 0.57% assuming you following the
proper strategy. I list of such casinos can be found
here.
Is there any mathematical proof you can provide that will prove a player sitting at "third base" on the blackjack table can’t change the outcome of the game by making bad decisions based on "basic strategy" I have had many people argue that poor decisions at third base, or anyplace on the table for that matter, cost them money. I would love to see the actual numbers on this if it is possible. Great site by the way. I love gambling, and your site is one of the best I have seen on the web. Actually has real proven info.
— Mike Castelluccio from Lafayette, U.S.
Thanks for your kind words. Unfortunately I do not have any such proof at hand. If I did set about proving it myself I would use a computer simulation. However skeptics would probably claim something ridiculous, like that bad players disrupt the karma of the game, which can’t be replicated in a computer.
I’ve been a dealer in Vancouver, Canada for over six years. Having dealt all casino games (except craps) I’ve decided that a person’s best betting strategy would be to bet all their bankroll on a one-shot bet, preferably in bacarrat, and on Banker. My decision is based on the observation that the longer a player gambles, the more likely that the odds will get the best of them, and the more likely it is that they will lose everything. The one-shot method may not be entertaining, but surely it’d be more profitable (or I should say, "less damaging")
— Mel C. from Coquitlam, BC, Canada
You’re absolutely right. The fewer bets actually made the better the odds are of actually winning. The expected loss is also a function of the total amount bet. If the player keeps circulating money back and forth between himself and the dealer the house edge will gradually grind the player down. However maximizing the odds of winning should not be the only objective to gambling. Having fun is also important. Plopping an entire bankroll on the table in one bet may not be as fun as playing it out gradually. It may also may have a greater chance at a large loss depending on how much play is involved in the alternative. If one really wants to cut down the house edge the best thing to do is put your money in the machine marked "change."
I have a few questions regarding blackjack: How often can one expect the dealer to bust and how often can a player expect to win 4 hands in a row?
— John from Westminster, USA
When the dealer stands on a soft 17 the dealer will bust about 29.1% of the time. When the dealer hits on a soft 17 the dealer will bust about 29.6% of the time. Assuming you skip of ties the probability of the winning four hands in a row is about 5.1%.
Could you please tell me what are some of the better paying slot machine to play? And also the placement of the machines that pay off the best? any help would be appreciated. i like slots but never win!!!!
— Denises from Lowell, USA
There is no way to tell whether a slot pays well by looking it. Probably the only one who knows is the slot manager and perhaps a few other casino executives. The kind of machine is not a major factor. While it’s "common knowledge" that casinos put higher-paying slots in the higher-traffic areas I’m skeptical that that is really the case and I intend to conduct some research into this soon.
Dear Mr. Wizard thank you for your very informative website. My question is about Baccarat. What are the good cards for the Player and what are the good cards for the Bank. Kindly give them in their order of strenght. thank you and more power to you.
— Herman from Manila, Philippines
Peter Griffin devotes a chapter to the subject of card counting in baccarat in his book
The Theory of Blackjack 
. Here he shows the best cards (to be left in the deck) for the player are in order: 4, 3, 2, ace, 10, 9, 8, 7, 5, 6. The best cards (to be left in the deck) for the banker are the opposite of this order. In the book he explains the impact of removal to three significant digits of each card for each bet and explains a card counting strategy based on this information. Be warned however that situations where there is an expected gain on one side or the other happen very infrequently.
